November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Phil]

Incredible differences between the ECMWF OP and GFS et al, right off the bat. Here's the ECMWF minus GFS @ 60hrs.

 

Note the ECMWF digging the back quadrant of the troughs..usually when this happens it's an error on the part of the ECMWF. Not always, but usually.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A0B4CB89-4AB1-4DF3-9CA4-8F13F4DA63BF_zpssqguksnt.png

[Phil]

By 72hrs, the differences are huge. The ECMWF is digging those shortwaves/BQs much farther southwest compared to the GFS.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B64A17E9-A2B2-45A0-9DCD-AF7191C84699_zpsnhenjgun.png

[Phil]

Sometimes the ECMWF will score a coup in this type of situation, but I'm almost certain it's (at least partially) a result of bias, in this case.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Total rain over next 10 days per the 00Z ECMWF... this should begin to put a dent in the drought.  

 

 

Kind of typical November fare. Obviously we'll get a bit less than that and on the 23rd of the month I'll be sitting around 8-9" which will be average to date for the month. 

[ShawniganLake]

Kind of typical November fare. Obviously we'll get a bit less than that and on the 23rd of the month I'll be sitting around 8-9" which will be average to date for the month.

We need another 8” to get to normal for the month here. Currently at about 3”. So I agree, even if that verified, we would be near to slightly below for the month to date

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through just Sunday... this would allow the Summit at Snoqualmie to open.   I believe their normal opening date is around December 7th.

 

[TT-SEA]

Up to 7 inches of rain on the month here after this evening and normal is between 11-12 inches.   I think a wetter than normal November seems pretty likely here.  

 

SEA is also above normal for the month so far.  

 

I assume a wet November is a good sign for December.  

[ShawniganLake]

A lot of snow up at Mt Washington today. News was reporting 28” at the higher elevations today

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 7 inches of rain on the month here after this evening and normal is between 11-12 inches.   I think a wetter than normal November seems pretty likely here.  

 

SEA is also above normal for the month so far.  

 

I assume a wet November is a good sign for December.  

 

Do you know what your annual average is? Mine is about 75-80"

[TT-SEA]

Do you know what your annual average is? Mine is about 75-80"

Not sure. North Bend is around 60 inches and that is 2.5 miles away and easily visible from here. But of course there can be a big difference in that short distance. I would guess its probably around 80 inches here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not sure. North Bend is around 60 inches and that is 2.5 miles away and easily visible from here. But of course there can be a big difference in that short distance. I would guess its probably around 80 inches here.

 

There is a guy who lives about 1200' in Clark County, Wa who averages at least 100" a year. He always gets so much more rain than I do. That area on the SW side of St. Helens gets an incredible amount of precip. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EPS not too dissimilar than the Op run. 500mb progression similar also. Worlds better than the abysmal GFS.

[χιόνι (chióni)]

Power just came back on.  43 fog

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cloudy and 40 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

Live view from the Summit at Snoqualmie this morrning as the sun is coming up...

 

[TT-SEA]

The morning after... we did lose power for 2 hours during the night.  

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

The morning after... we did lose power for 2 hours during the night.

 

 

A lot of leaves on those trees still Tim

 

Raining here. Looking at the mesoscale models this morning it could be a really wet day on southern Vancouver Island. That narrow but heavy band looks pretty stationary

[Geos]

Pretty view from the top of Snoqualmie. Tim your roads are way too clean! 

None of the roads here looks like that.

 

Colder and blustery here this morning. Internet and cable came back on about midnight here. Never lost power for more than a few seconds. 

[TT-SEA]

Pretty view from the top of Snoqualmie. Tim your roads are way too clean!

None of the roads here looks like that.

 

Colder and blustery here this morning. Internet and cable came back on about midnight here. Never lost power for more than a few seconds.

I think the wind blew them clean. There are definitely less leaves in my yard this morning as well.

[TT-SEA]

A lot of leaves on those trees still Tim

 

Raining here. Looking at the mesoscale models this morning it could be a really wet day on southern Vancouver Island. That narrow but heavy band looks pretty stationary

 

 

The 12Z models keep it mostly dry out here through this evening as the rain stays mostly to the west of Puget Sound.  

[TT-SEA]

Also... the 12Z GFS is still dry for Saturday which is in complete disagreement with the 00Z ECMWF which showed very heavy rain that day over WA.

 

[MossMan]

The 12Z models keep it mostly dry out here through this evening as the rain stays mostly to the west of Puget Sound.

Quite wet up here so far.

[TT-SEA]

Quite wet up here so far.

 

Yes... models keep the rain mostly west of Puget Sound down here.   That is not true a little farther north.  

 

Here is 4 p.m.

 

[MossMan]

Also... the 12Z GFS is still dry for Saturday which is in complete disagreement with the 00Z ECMWF which showed very heavy rain that day over WA.

 

Will be fun to see which model ends up caving.

[TT-SEA]

Will be fun to see which model ends up caving.

 

I always like to track a model battle!    There is a massive difference between the GFS and ECMWF considering Saturday is just 96 hours away.  

[BLI snowman]

I always like to track a model battle!   

 

Canadian basically echoes the GFS, shows the jet hitting B.C. on Saturday.

[Geos]

Quite wet up here so far.

 

Getting brushed by showers here. I imagine later it will be more of a steady rain.

 

Looks like a line of t-storms.

 

 

Still some stop lights out this morning.

[TT-SEA]

Getting brushed by showers here. I imagine later it will be more of a steady rain.

 

Looks like a line of t-storms.

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LGX/N0Q/LGX.N0Q.20171114.1750.gif

 

Still some stop lights out this morning.

 

 

According to the 12Z models... the rain might not really move east until later this evening.  

 

Partly sunny and calm here.  

[Geos]

Yep strong thunderstorms coming ashore - just what the region needs after last night and yesterday...

 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Seattle WA
955 AM PST TUE NOV 14 2017

WAZ517-141830-
Central Coast-
955 AM PST TUE NOV 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL GRAYS HARBOR COUNTY
UNTIL 1030 AM PST...

At 954 AM PST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ocean Shores, or 8 miles northwest of Westport, moving northeast at
45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

LAT...LON 4722 12405 4704 12417 4726 12422
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 228DEG 41KT 4696 12425

[DareDuck]

Mt. Bachelor just announced they’re opening early Saturday! Let the party begin.

[Geos]

Winds gusting to 48 mph at Destruction Island next to those thunderstorms right now.

[Front Ranger]

Winds gusting to 48 mph at Destruction Island next to those thunderstorms right now.

 

AKA a "slight breeze" on Mt. Washington.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF has moved towards the GFS solution for the weekend.

 

Conveyor belt is much farther north... much less rain is shown for SW WA and the Seattle area.   

 

Although its still quite a bit farther to the east than the 12Z GFS... but the ECMWF changed this morning from its 00Z run and the GFS did not budge at all.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12Z ECMWF has moved towards the GFS solution for the weekend.

 

Conveyor belt is much farther north... much less rain is shown for SW WA and the Seattle area.   

 

Although its still quite a bit farther to the east than the 12Z GFS... but the ECMWF changed this morning from its 00Z run and the GFS did not budge at all.  

 

Looking like late November and Thanksgiving could be torchy. Didn't this happen in 2008?...I feel like 2008 had me worried we were just going to be torched all winter then Dec got cold and rainy real quick and then the 14-23rd happened.

[TT-SEA]

Partly sunny and pleasant here... nice change from last night. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Looking like late November and Thanksgiving could be torchy. Didn't this happen in 2008?...I feel like 2008 had me worried we were just going to be torched all winter then Dec got cold and rainy real quick and then the 14-23rd happened.

 

I think 2008 was torchy until the second of week of December and then it just crashed.

[Phil]

12Z ECMWF has moved towards the GFS solution for the weekend.

 

Conveyor belt is much farther north... much less rain is shown for SW WA and the Seattle area.

 

Although its still quite a bit farther to the east than the 12Z GFS... but the ECMWF changed this morning from its 00Z run and the GFS did not budge at all.

It's still dragging the ULL and lead shortwave, but yeah it definitely swung towards the GFS.

 

This is one of those convoluted patterns that can really exploit the ECMWF's ULL bias.

[Timmy]

12Z ECMWF has moved towards the GFS solution for the weekend.

 

Conveyor belt is much farther north... much less rain is shown for SW WA and the Seattle area.

 

Although its still quite a bit farther to the east than the 12Z GFS... but the ECMWF changed this morning from its 00Z run and the GFS did not budge at all.

king gfs

[MossMan]

Looking like late November and Thanksgiving could be torchy. Didn't this happen in 2008?...I feel like 2008 had me worried we were just going to be torched all winter then Dec got cold and rainy real quick and then the 14-23rd happened.

I was washing my truck in shorts on Thanksgiving 2008 and was very concerned as well...until the greatness started just a couple of weeks later!

[Geos]

Yet another day of no sunspots. Getting into the low solar activity area of 08 and 09 now.