james1976 Posted November 17, 2017 Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 My word, that is a low ceiling out there. Just noticed we got some drizzle goin now too. Been very dreary looking all morning. Temp is only 36. Im having doubts on that forecasted 51. Once again....temps have come up short all week. We haven't hit a forecasted high at all this week. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 17, 2017 Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 My forecast calls for Rain Saturday nite going ova to a few rainshowers b4 ending w possibly a passing flurry. They tend to change it up w different wording every so often. By tonite, they will prolly say rain ending as a few rainshowers or wet snowflakes. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 17, 2017 Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 RPM chucks me my 0.1" over in Marshall that I was half-joking about in that prior post This was never a snowstorm for us (this go-around), but the "NAM-fake" was intense there for about 12 hrs, lol A teaser.....neva go w only 1 model run, unless, you have multiple models that are agreeing w one another for a good 2+ days in a row. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 These guys have gone with some back-end snows as well. They have a pretty good track record in my book, so this will be a good test if they're on their game for winter modes.. Increasing confidence of at least seeing my 1st legit flakes Sat night.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 17, 2017 Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 Lake effect snowbelts will most likely see snow from that cold air rushing in ova the lakes. Several inches w whiteout conditions and travel delays w reduced visibility can be expected. Who knows, maybe I will see a flake Sat nite into Sun. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 GGEM one of the strongest (and warmest go figure) models and wants to get this sub-980 just east of SMI. If correct, Niko's place should be quite windy! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 17, 2017 Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 The hi-res NAM continues to be the most aggressive with the cold air on the back side and snow chances. Again 10:1 shown here for dramatic effect. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2017111718/039/sn10_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 17, 2017 Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 Looking more and more like we may get our first measurable snow of the season tomorrow. Won't be much but with a rain-cooled ground and considering the fact that Wednesday was the average first measurable snowfall day for here, it'll work. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 17, 2017 Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 Reports of hail in the south burbs of chi town? Impressive stuff for mid November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted November 17, 2017 Report Share Posted November 17, 2017 Pretty strong storm rolling through here - lots of rain - thunder - lightening. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 And those dynamics are just from that northern wave. Southern wave still preparing for launch.. If those negative 850's were lurking just a half state further south, this is a whole nother ball game! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 I think we're a go on snow early in the morning tomorrow. All the models that showed us as 100% rain (HRRR namely) have run up to 6 degrees warmer than what we are at now. HRRR had us at 56 at 8pm, it is 49.5 on my balcony now.Once we get the precip in to cool everything down further, including the grass, I think we can look at accumulating snow here. Omaha I'm not so sure about. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 GGEM one of the strongest (and warmest go figure) models and wants to get this sub-980 just east of SMI. If correct, Niko's place should be quite windy! 20171117 12z 42hr GEM 500 mb & MSLP for Nov19.jpgYup....winds are expected to be gusting to near 40-45mph w sustain winds 20-25mph. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 What beats 33-n-rain? 41-n-heavy rain! Happening here with thunder rumbles as well. Baro @ 29.69 in hg and dropping steadily. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 Wow, MI covered with radar returns. 996 mb closed contour in KS at 9 pm and Nebraska radar lighting up! GRR has upped my total qpf from .5-1" to 1-1.5" #nicetrends Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 Temps will rise tomorrow w rain and slowly dropping throughout the afternoon as temps fall into the 30s. Winds will start howling as colder air rushes in. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 Radar is socked w heavy rain coming my way. I am looking at at least 1.50"+. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 Wow, MI covered with radar returns. 996 mb closed contour in KS at 9 pm and Nebraska radar lighting up! GRR has upped my total qpf from .5-1" to 1-1.5" #nicetrends Tab2FileL.pngIts going to get wild....possible strong storms ahead of the CF during the pm hours. Snowshowers possible for my area w strong winds. SWMI looking at some snowshowers likely Sat nite. Keep an eye on the radar tomorrow nite Jaster. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 Rain/Snow mix being reported in E IA/SW WI, hail reports south of Chicago near Peoria/C IL region along the warm front. Fascinating storm system intensifying as we speak. CF has pushed its way through the area and winds are becoming gusty. It's a raw, windy and wet morning out there today. Kinda gets you that sense this winter is about to come on hard. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 Madtown, are you getting snow? Radar looks like it should be mixing in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 @ Jaster, doesn't this storm kinda remind you of the mid November storm back in 2013? Radar is really lighting up as SLP deepens. Perfect track for a "share the wealth" system in future cycles. Skilling talks about how this storm had the "Pineapple Express" connection. Talk about a juiced up storm! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 Fatties flying n sticking 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 Friday night "strikes" over Chitown! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 "@ Jaster, doesn't this storm kinda remind you of the mid November storm back in 2013? Radar is really lighting up as SLP deepens. Perfect track for a "share the wealth" system in future cycles. Skilling talks about how this storm had the "Pineapple Express" connection. Talk about a juiced up storm!" Yeah Tom, here's our share the wealth sub-forum track alright! This would be a really sweet set-up when cold is entrenched. But 1st snowstorm tracking west to east in 2013 was in mid-December. Brought mby about 6" iirc Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 "@ Jaster, doesn't this storm kinda remind you of the mid November storm back in 2013? Radar is really lighting up as SLP deepens. Perfect track for a "share the wealth" system in future cycles. Skilling talks about how this storm had the "Pineapple Express" connection. Talk about a juiced up storm!" Yeah Tom, here's our share the wealth sub-forum track alright! This would be a really sweet set-up when cold is entrenched. But 1st snowstorm tracking west to east in 2013 was in mid-December. Brought mby about 6" iircYa, I can't remember TBH. The only thing I recall which stuck out was how D**n cold it got in mid December and our first sub zero readings were recorded around then. Prob makes sense we got a fresh snow cover during that period which allowed temps to tank. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 If this placement is accurate, the CF has indeed punched further south than expected just last evening Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 At Tom Yep, had -18F on my car thermo in the countryside that morning and was shocked tbh 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 At Tom Yep, had -18F on my car thermo in the countryside that morning and was shocked tbhThat was just the beginning of the "Polar Vortex" theme that year. I'm sure we will see a few visits this season, but I think we may beat some low temps reached that season around here partly due to the numerous HP's (post storm) we have seen this LRC. Lay down a deep snow pack and allow some massive HP's to slide in across the region and that will be the best scenario to get the coldest temps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 Well, no snow. I'll take the heavy rain we had though. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 I think this is going to be the final storm to effect our area for the LRC's first cycle. Nice way to finish off the first cycle with a bang! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 First accumulating snow here 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 Congrats to everyone who gets snow with this! Probably won't be many. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 Ground whitened up here...nice surprise 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 Saw some video of the snow ripping near Dearfield, WI that whitened up the ground. Glad you guys scored some snow out of this to give you a "taste" of Winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 No snow here either. Cold air just didn’t filter down in time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 Loving this first legitimate snowfall of the season! Bring it on! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 #Awesome.... https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/931891709633548293 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 Atmospheric Fireworks are exploding downstate...hearing reports of major turbulence from pilots flying over the storms farther south. Torrential rains, vivid lighting...this is what I'm talking about! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 Loving this first legitimate snowfall of the season! Bring it on!Looks like most of the MKE area is seeing fatty flakes flying. Congrats! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 18, 2017 Report Share Posted November 18, 2017 It rained a couple tenths, here. That's all. No flakes. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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