December 2017 Observations and Discussions

[jaster220]

"Latest official week 2 forecast with a tight temp gradient (weak SE Ridge) and favorable storm track for wintry weather! Updates posted at (link: http://BAMwx.com)BAMwx.com #NatGas #winter #OOTT #snow #Christmas"

 

[gimmesnow]

thats a hilarious map 

 

 

dat pattern change doe

 

When are your posts going to have a pattern change?

[Thunder98]

Below to well below avg temps for much of the CONUS while much above avg temps in Alaska and above avg temps in FL as well.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

[jaster220]

Below to well below avg temps for much of the CONUS while much above avg temps in Alaska and above avg temps in FL as well.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

18z GEM out to 240 hrs actually has decent snow in Nebraska..fwiw

[james1976]

I thought GEM was only 0z and 12z? Wow how did i miss that? Lol

[Niko]

Received about 1.2" from these squalls today.

[Niko]

Regarding the system late next week...NOAA leaning w another snowstorm for SEMI:

 

LONG TERM / TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A surface high pressure system will build in across the Ohio Valley
late Tuesday and upper-level ridge building in across the Midwest on
Wednesday will bring several days of dry weather as temperatures
remain seasonal to slightly above seasonal for the midweek period.
The next likely chance for widespread precipitation will then move
in late Thursday into Friday as a low pressure system develops and
pushes northeast from OK/MO. Slightly better convergence is now seen
across the long range models regarding the placement of the low,
with it settling just south of Michigan, over northern Ohio/Lake
Erie by Friday afternoon. A warm front pushing through the state
prior to the low, will bring the chance to see precipitation across
the Central part of the state and across the thumb, throughout
Thursday.  The more likely chance for precipitation will enter late Thursday into Friday morning as
the low pressure system approaches the state. With new model runs
trending cooler, a snow solution is looking more likely for this
event, however, additional models runs and convergence will be
needed to increase confidence regarding the timing, placement, and
strength of the low.

[jaster220]

I thought GEM was only 0z and 12z? Wow how did i miss that? Lol

Lol, that's were all of Nebraska's snow lives, the 18z GEM! You didn't know??

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I had no idea the GEM had a 18z. Someone post it please? Thanks.

[hlcater]

I had no idea the GEM had a 18z. Someone post it please? Thanks.

It doesn't, at least that I'm aware of. Pretty sure James and Jaster are just being facetious.

[Minny_Weather]

GEM is only 00z and 12z.

[St Paul Storm]

Light snow again here this evening. Picked up about 0.5” so far. These nickels and dimes are great but I’d like to use my snowblower not my broom.

[Money]

Gfs similar to 12/18z but cmc is still father south

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017121600&fh=138&xpos=0&ypos=111

[bud2380]

The GEM does run now at 6z and 18z but it only runs out to 72 hours on those runs. At least that’s all I’ve ever seen.

[bud2380]

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-panel.php?mod=gemglb&run=18&stn=PNMPR&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest

[bud2380]

The GEM is doubling down on smashing Iowa with a big snowstorm.

[bud2380]

GFS looking better for Iowa this run too.

[Money]

Yup

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017121600&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=117

[gosaints]

Elongated GFS

[bud2380]

[Money]

Gfs is still showing that double low

[Money]

10+ inches of snow from ne Iowa into WI and IL on gem

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2017121600&fh=156&xpos=0&ypos=105

[Grizzcoat]

Liking these trends in C.IA obviously but I expected (and still somewhat do) a N shift but the first wave may be helping that stay further S. Not getting greedy- all I want is White Christmas. 1" and I'am fine.

[bud2380]

Definitely two good runs so far tonight. The Euro will likely shatter all my hopes and dreams though.

[St Paul Storm]

Definitely two good runs so far tonight. The Euro will likely shatter all my hopes and dreams though.

Maybe it will. But you don’t want to be in the jackpot zone 6 days out anyway.

[Money]

Definitely two good runs so far tonight. The Euro will likely shatter all my hopes and dreams though.

Im more interested to see if it still has that southern low

[bud2380]

I’m just glad there is hope of a white Christmas. If I get 2” I’d be happy.

[Minny_Weather]

I like GFS, it gives LNK enough to where it's satisfying to people here (around 3"), but I wouldn't be pissed about missing it. That'd be the best case scenario.

[Money]

Ukie 120

 

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120

 

144

 

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

 

It has the southern low but it’s much weaker than euro

[Minny_Weather]

warm and dry to cold and dry!!!  OMG!! 

OMG!!! Breaking news, you need cold to produce snow. Remember how it was yesterday? Nice and misty? Bit of light rain around sunset? Yeah that would have fallen as snow had we been in a colder pattern. The cold is a good start. Take it.

[gosaints]

OMG!!! Breaking news, you need cold to produce snow. Remember how it was yesterday? Nice and misty? Bit of light rain around sunset? Yeah that would have fallen as snow had we been in a colder pattern. The cold is a good start. Take it.

 

Block him he is worse than I on my most pessimistic day and he doesnt use any meteorology.

 

Now let's a storm somewhere in the sub that trends better inside of a week...

 

Give we can call it a MoneyBomb.

[Money]

Block him he is worse than I on my most pessimistic day and he doesnt use any meteorology.

 

Now let's a storm somewhere in the sub that trends better inside of a week...

 

Give we can call it a MoneyBomb.

It’s amusing when models show a storm for him and then he won’t believe it but he believes the models when it shows cold and dry

[gosaints]

It’s amusing when models show a storm for him and then he won’t believe it but he believes the models when it shows cold and dry

Still living in the same area?

[james1976]

Is it just me or is the GEM staying pretty consistent?

[Money]

Still living in the same area?

Yeah. You still in Rochester?

[Grizzcoat]

as mentioned- it needs to be cold enough to snow and the GFS is back to showing it in the long range after having issues for several runs. A few inches of snow from the solstice (maybe?) event and then chances of clippers with below normal temps-- I will take it. If this materializes , Central Iowans will be complaining by the New Year saying it's been "such a long winter".

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Things are looking good. Several gfs ens members have cut off moving over us on christmas day as well. Euro up next

[Money]

Euro still has that whacky low at 120

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf&p=sfcmslp&rh=2017121600&fh=120&r=conus&dpdt=

[bud2380]

Snow breaking out in Nebraska at hour 138 on the euro

[bainbridgekid]

Interesting look to the Euro at 144. Holds the energy back Southwest longer than the GFS as more of an open wave than a closed low, but it's definitely pretty far South. 

Looks like it would be a pretty good setup for Iowa/Southern WI/Northern Illinois IMO.