Jesse Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Yes... Matt has never called us out. He called you out today as well but you vehemently protested that assessment. Denial. My point stands. And you’ve got to admit him comparing me to you is pretty low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 My point stands. And you’ve got to admit him comparing me to you is pretty low. No... he is usually spot on with most things. Including his assessment of you. I am definitely challenging Jim's prediction for tomorrow and Sunday. I don't think it will continue to trend colder. Portland will be pretty chilly with cold outflow through the Gorge. And places like Tacoma and Federal Way and probably Covington will be the cool spots up here with limited mixing due to the angle of the flow. SEA is a wild card... right on the edge of the dead zone. But I think it will be warmer there tomorrow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 No... he is usually spot on with most things. Including his assessment of you. I am definitely challenging Jim's assessment about tomorrow and Sunday. I don't think it will continue to trend colder. Portland will be pretty chilly with cold outflow through the Gorge. And places like Tacoma and Federal Way and probably Covington will be the cool spots up here with limited mixing due to the angle of the flow. SEA is a wild card... right on the edge of the dead zone. But I think it will be warmer there tomorrow.That I can be like you sometimes? The fact that that is my version of getting “called out” sort of says it all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 That I can be like you sometimes? The fact that that is my version of getting “called out” sort of says it all. No... he says were are basically twins. But I also take that as a compliment. I like you! You are very intelligent. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 I find it interesting how it can be in the upper 40s in the afternoon and everything in the shade stays frozen and covered in frost this time of year. But if it’s cloudy and mid to upper 30s the frost would melt off quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 I find it interesting how it can be in the upper 40s in the afternoon and everything in the shade stays frozen and covered in frost this time of year. But if it’s cloudy and mid to upper 30s the frost would melt off quickly. I have noticed that many times and it always perplexes me. It is so counter-intuitive. But I think clouds are like a blanket... it evens everything out. Dewpoint also plays a role. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 I find it interesting how it can be in the upper 40s in the afternoon and everything in the shade stays frozen and covered in frost this time of year. But if it’s cloudy and mid to upper 30s the frost would melt off quickly.Low dew points do incredible things for frost. Clouds also spread out the UV light from the sun so I believe the areas that are shady all day actually get more solar radiation on a cloudy day than a clear one. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Low dew points do incredible things for frost. Clouds also spread out the UV light from the sun so I believe the areas that are shady all day actually get more solar radiation on a cloudy day than a clear one. That makes sense. Low dewpoints also do incredible things for snow cover. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Low dew points do incredible things for frost. Clouds also spread out the UV light from the sun so I believe the areas that are shady all day actually get more solar radiation on a cloudy day than a clear one.I was wondering about the solar radiation on a cloudy day. I think that makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest El nina Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 No... he says were are basically twins. But I also take that as a compliment. I like you! You are very intelligent. He's drunk! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 He's drunk!I suspect he's also an uncle. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Nice ensemble improvement tonight. It looks like 7 members drop to -10 or lower on the 850s. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 I have noticed that many times and it always perplexes me. It is so counter-intuitive. But I think clouds are like a blanket... it evens everything out. Dewpoint also plays a role.I also notice the lower DP’s makes it feel colder even inside the house. The house at 68 feels colder than when it’s 68 with higher DP’s. Makes no sense but even my wife notices it. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 No... he says were are basically twins. But I also take that as a compliment. I like you! You are very intelligent. I like you too. I also take it as a compliment in a way. You do have an obsession with Jim being miserable, though. And I have an obsession with your obsession with Jim being miserable. So I guess that’s one thing we have in common. The secondary obsession only exists with the original though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Low dew points do incredible things for frost. Clouds also spread out the UV light from the sun so I believe the areas that are shady all day actually get more solar radiation on a cloudy day than a clear one. I'm 95% you are right. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 New 00Z ECMWF shows stronger winds tomorrow for the entire Seattle area and temperatures about 5 degrees warmer than today for most places. It shows around 51 in Seattle. But mid to upper 40s around the South Sound with lighter wind. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 I'm 95% you are right.What would the 5% be? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 00z ECMWF Day 3http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120900/072/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 I like you too. I also take it as a compliment in a way. You do have an obsession with Jim being miserable, though. And I have an obsession with your obsession with Jim being miserable. So I guess that’s one thing we have in common. The secondary obsession only exists with the original though. I do not. I have been totally on board with him this fall. I have not challenged any of his thoughts for this winter since he returned to the forum in late summer. Not once. And in fact, I have expressed agreement on many occasions. I challenge Jim at times when I think he might not be paying attention to the models. That usually happens when he is over-giddy so it might seem like I want him to be miserable. But I really don't. Jim and I agree on what is preferable weather much more than we disagree. We both hate our long, wet springs and we both love our dry summers and we both love cold and snow and anything but warm rain in the winter. Chances are... if Jim is miserable with the weather then I am miserable as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 I also notice the lower DP’s makes it feel colder even inside the house. The house at 68 feels colder than when it’s 68 with higher DP’s. Makes no sense but even my wife notices it. It makes sense. Skin is sensitive to evaporative cooling. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Day 4http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120900/096/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 I also notice the lower DP’s makes it feel colder even inside the house. The house at 68 feels colder than when it’s 68 with higher DP’s. Makes no sense but even my wife notices it.Makes sense to me. Think about how much warmer an 80 degree humid day feels than a dry one at the same temperature. I'd say around 60 degrees is when higher humidity starts feeling warmer. In the 40's or lower it definitely feels colder with higher humidity. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Day 4http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120900/096/500h_anom.na.png That tiny little cutoff low is hilarious. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 What would the 5% be?Margin of error. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 That tiny little cutoff low is hilarious.Yeah, he's a lil bu'hole Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Day 5http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120900/120/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 My people on the ground in Atlanta report some decent snow accumulation today... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 My people on the ground in Atlanta report some decent snow accumulation today... How much do you pay your people? Hopefully more than 0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 My people on the ground in Atlanta report some decent snow accumulation today... Looks decent. Is that a little palm tree? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Looks decent. Is that a little palm tree? No idea. I have never been to this person's house there. He grew up in Minnesota and moved to Atlanta about 15 years ago. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Day 6http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120900/144/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Decent marine push signal for Thursday. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Day 7 Aleutian ridge much flatter than on the GFS. We'll see how day 8-10 unfold. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120900/168/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Day 8 not bad. Aleutian ridge emerging, no Greenland block. Flat ridge, Kona.. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120900/192/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 00Z ECMWF says precip returns on Thursday evening... ending the dry streak at 10 days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 No idea. I have never been to this person's house there. He grew up in Minnesota and moved to Atlanta about 15 years ago.Haha. I was totally joking. 30F here. After a high of 47F. Probably heading for a low of 28 or 29, assuming we stay above the fog here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Day 7 Aleutian ridge much flatter than on the GFS. We'll see how day 8-10 unfold. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120900/168/500h_anom.na.png Sure is nice seeing this show up again and again. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Latest home page graphic from the SEA NWS. They have been running comical headlines all week warning of stagnation and fog. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 Day 9 sure is looking a lot like the GFShttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120900/216/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 9, 2017 Report Share Posted December 9, 2017 00Z ECMWF looks pretty good. Its certainly on board with the overall theme. Of course it only goes out to 12/18 right now so the good stuff would still be just out of range. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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