Jump to content

December Weather In the PNW

BLI snowman

By BLI snowman
in West of the Rockies

 Share

Recommended Posts

Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

Posted
Posted

Phil, you see the weeklies.  Go have a look, let us know your thoughts.

 

BTW, wx.graphics will have the weeklies soon.  Don't know how many maps they will have, but looking forward to it.  As well as the ECMWF stratosphere.  

I thought they came out yesterday and everyone was raving about them....

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 11.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

ShawniganLake
ShawniganLake

******* of the year candidate. I vote for a ban. You bring nothing to this forum.

ShawniganLake
ShawniganLake

28 with clear blue skies here this morning. Looks like about 6-7” of snow survived the melting and compaction yesterday. Didn’t have time to take any photos really but a took a couple as I went out t

Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

I actually haven't been hanging onto any models. I just post the links and give brief analysis. Of course I don't have to do so for every 12z, 00z run, but who would take over? I enjoy doing so. My en

Posted Images

Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Now for the big kahuna: Pacific Warm Pool and PNA.

 

Unfortunately, NOAA’s Warm Pool index was discontinued back in 2008 when the scientist that created the dataset retired, but you get the picture.

 

perfjJK.png

So, by this measure, perhaps the WPWP could be used as a proxy reconstruction for the PNA.

 

Which begs the question..could the LIA have been a result of a contracted WPWP? This reconstruction suggests that may, in fact, be the case. The warm pool has been recovering since the 1700s.

 

C5ZNr31.jpg

  • Like 1
foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Phil, you see the weeklies. Go have a look, let us know your thoughts.

 

BTW, wx.graphics will have the weeklies soon. Don't know how many maps they will have, but looking forward to it. As well as the ECMWF stratosphere.

Weeks 1-4:

 

Fft3ljS.png

 

IIFdUft.png

 

z7AjilF.png

 

aUdwRh4.png

  • Like 2
foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Timmy Mentor

Timmy

Posted
Posted

So, by this measure, perhaps the WPWP could be used as a proxy reconstruction for the PNA.

 

Which begs the question..could the LIA have been a result of a contracted WPWP? This reconstruction suggests that may, in fact, be the case. The warm pool has been recovering since the 1700s.

 

C5ZNr31.jpg

are you talking to yourself again Phil? Is it going to snow or not?
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Gradient Keeper Grand Master

Gradient Keeper

Posted
Posted

Nice! I think it's awesome the trend I said to watch for 2 days ago is coming to fruition. Each run ridge a notch stronger, block not weakening, and a bit more amplification. Keep this going and that block may setup near 140 W not 130-135 W before retrogression occurs. 18z GEFS is starting to look just like the 12z CMCE and EPS !

 

00z GFS in 3 hours 55 minutes

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

A long, long ways to go of course, but there is definite reason for renewed optimism if you ask me.

 

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 8 minutes

You’re gonna blow a fuse before the blast gets here. :lol:

  • Like 1
foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Hi, I'm a new member also apart of the Canadian forum. I live in the SW BC Vancouver area and look forward to contributing to the PNW discussions! Hoping for lots of cold and snow!

Welcome. ☃️

  • Like 1
foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Now I have to crack the whip on you too!

You into the leather and boots too? Or is it more of a casual thing?

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Why do I have a feeling we'll all be looking at maps in mid February saying," day 11 retrogression starts at a faster pace". We do have short windows here in the northwest for cold and snow. Jus sayin

Has the window of potential actually changed, though? As far as I’m concerned, the good stuff was always pegged to begin around New Years, +/- a few days.

  • Like 3
foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Phil Grand Master

Phil

Posted
Posted

Once the pattern becomes favorable (again, around New Years +/- a few days), I’m expecting it to largely sustain for ~ 3 weeks, before the NPAC/EPO ridge begins to deamplify and migrate equatorward as the QBO begins to influence the tropics to a more significant extent.

 

That doesn’t mean February won’t be cold (or maybe Arctic depending where the gradient sets up). In fact, it should be a cold/wet month (-PNA/+EPO/SE Ridge). Something Andrew would probably root for.

 

However, the NPAC ridge does look to start migrating equatorward overall, starting in mid/late January.

  • Like 4
foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted

Once the pattern becomes favorable (again, around New Years +/- a few days), I’m expecting it to largely sustain for ~ 3 weeks, before the NPAC/EPO ridge begins to deamplify and migrate equatorward as the QBO begins to influence the tropics to a more significant extent.

 

That doesn’t mean February won’t be cold (or maybe Arctic depending where the gradient sets up). In fact, it should be a cold/wet month (-PNA/+EPO/SE Ridge). Something Andrew would probably root for.

 

However, the NPAC ridge does look to start migrating equatorward overall, starting in mid/late January.

If we only spend 20 days in the ice box I'm pouring sugar in your gas tank.

  • Like 2

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

Hi, I'm a new member also apart of the Canadian forum. I live in the SW BC Vancouver area and look forward to contributing to the PNW discussions! Hoping for lots of cold and snow!

Welcome to our disfunctional family! Great to have another northern member!
  • Like 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...