Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Bellingham down to 30, dewpoint 27. YWL-BLI gradient -8.5mb seems to be increasing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Yup! 0z GEM looks pretty decent-good at day 10. Once that eastern US trough kicks out.Almost identical to the 0Z GFS, a one day trough progressing into a ridge over the west coast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Bellingham down to 30, dewpoint 27. YWL-BLI gradient -8.5mb seems to be increasing.Abbotsford is down to 25 already. Could be the coldest night of the winter so far. Not forecast to go much above freezing there until Wednesday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Bellingham down to 30, dewpoint 27. YWL-BLI gradient -8.5mb seems to be increasing. Jim said this would happen! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 FWIW, Weather Channel is all in: That looks more like a cool NW flow pattern their depicting. You have to be at elevation to do good with this pattern, ideally 1,000 feet or higher. It's not an Arctic blast pattern at all. We need the coldest anomalies just east of the Cascades. It's better than warm rain though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Jim said this would happen! Yeah... last night. The models all showed northerly flow up there this evening... and we get easterly flow down here later. Looks like we get 5 consecutive dry days now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Down to 26 in Sumas, going to be a cold night for those without power up there. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 The ensembles look like a lot of cold members but only one member goes below -5C. Not much to wag your tail at (even for PDX). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 The ensembles look like a lot of cold members but only one member goes below -5C. Not much to wag your tail at.Nothing to write home about Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 The ensembles look like a lot of cold members but only one member goes below -5C. Not much to wag your tail at.They are lost...perhaps we will see more of nothing boring ridging, perhaps we will have cool onshore flow, perhaps we see Jan 1950, or everything inbetween. Pretty much any possibility is on the table by next weekend and on. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 They posted one yesterday that showed above normal temperatures in the PNW.I think these are generated by computers with very little involvement... It is just depicting what the models show. Pretty meaningless. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Significant warm up at the 925mb level starting tonight into tomorrow on the 00Z ECMWF. I guess that arctic air up north won't be making it too far south. Here was the 925mb temps at 4 p.m. today: And the 925mb temps at 4 p.m. tomorrow: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 OK...I'll admit I'm getting a bit worried now. I still think there is a decent chance the models will come around over the next couple of days. If they don't I have no idea why the IO MJO wave would fail to produce a good pattern for us given the context of this season. One thing I noticed today is the SOI has been very weak for a while now indicating the atmosphere is not in a very Ninaish configuration. A few things to watch for that could be signals for a favorable change for us would be. 1. MJO wave making into octant 5 (still not clear if it will get that far or not on this cycle)2. Higher SOI3. Very low (sub 1000mb pressure) over Darwin Historically these have been favorable triggers for us. This all having been said the GFS has certainly been hinting at the possibility of minor cold snaps around day 6 or 7 and day 11 or so. Those could easily develop into something more substantial on future runs. All I can say is a myriad of things are favorable for a good outcome. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Official high at SEA this afternoon was 48... the ECMWF last night was actually a little too cool. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 I think these are generated by computers with very little involvement... It is just depicting what the models show. Pretty meaningless. Indeed. The analog composite showed us cold, but the official outlook showed us warm. Something screwy there. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Down to 26 in Sumas, going to be a cold night for those without power up there.No kidding. Still 22000 customers without power north of the border. Current windchill in Agassiz is 10F. 26F with a NE wind gusting to 35mph. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Speaking of analog composites...early to mid Jan 1957 has been showing up more consistently than any other month for days now. There have also been a number of others that had very good outcomes for us. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 No kidding. Still 22000 customers without power north of the border. Current windchill in Agassiz is 10F. 26F with a NE wind gusting to 35mph. There is still a boat load of cold air available over southern BC. It's been pretty darn cold up there for a good while now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 OK...I'll admit I'm getting a bit worried now. I still think there is a decent chance the models will come around over the next couple of days. If they don't I have no idea why the IO MJO wave would fail to produce a good pattern for us given the context of this season. One thing I noticed today is the SOI has been very weak for a while now indicating the atmosphere is not in a very Ninaish configuration. A few things to watch for that could be signals for a favorable change for us would be. 1. MJO wave making into octant 5 (still not clear if it will get that far or not on this cycle)2. Higher SOI3. Very low (sub 1000mb pressure) over Darwin Historically these have been favorable triggers for us. This all having been said the GFS has certainly been hinting at the possibility of minor cold snaps around day 6 or 7 and day 11 or so. Those could easily develop into something more substantial on future runs. All I can say is a myriad of things are favorable for a good outcome. I think is time for a therapeutic group hug... -- Another block waisted? Maybe... I bet $100 monopoly dollars that the 500mb pattern and high pressure alignment will be perfect about March but sun angles will screw us. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Totally clear here now. Should be another hard frost tonight. Looks pretty chilly for the next few days. Pretty impressive how many minor cold shots we have gotten this month. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 I think is time for a therapeutic group hug... -- Another block waisted? Maybe... I bet $100 monopoly dollars that the 500mb pattern and high pressure alignment will be perfect about March but sun angles will screw us. I think we have broken out of that regime now. I still have high faith in this winter delivering. I can't stress enough how many things are in our favor. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 There is still a boat load of cold air available over southern BC. It's been pretty darn cold up there for a good while now.Currently -21F near our cabin in the Cariboo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 It may be just me but I am liking the overall progression of tonight EURO better than many previous runs. I am sure it is just me though being dumb. I am feeling it could easily morph into something good in later runs if it continues. Some carrots of change that could lead to good things Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Currently -21F near our cabin in the Cariboo.Mediocre cold... #underperformingin2017 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest El nina Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 I think these are generated by computers with very little involvement... It is just depicting what the models show. Pretty meaningless.I've also noticed they overhype almost everything on there too. It's pretty cringey. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 No kidding. Still 22000 customers without power north of the border. Current windchill in Agassiz is 10F. 26F with a NE wind gusting to 35mph. I just did a Google map tour of that area... looks very much like Hwy 2 from Monroe to Skykomish. It probably traps cold air like that area does too. But the BC version has the huge advantage of a direct pipeline to cold from the interior. Hope BC looks like a nice place to live. Also looks very much like Skykomish with mountains in every direction. And it gets quite warm out there in the summer away from the marine layer most of the time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 It may be just me but I am liking the overall progression of tonight EURO better than many previous runs. I am sure it is just me though being dumb. I am feeling it could easily morph into something good in later runs if it continues. Some carrots of change that could lead to good thingsYeah I thought the same thing. My gut is saying we get something as early as a week from now but all we can do is sit back and see if the models become a little less confused. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest El nina Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 I think we have broken out of that regime now. I still have high faith in this winter delivering. I can't stress enough how many things are in our favor.Well I must say I can see how people are feeling pessimistic about it when both you and Phil come out and say you're getting nervous... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Well I must say I can see how people are feeling pessimistic about it when both you and Phil come out and say you're getting nervous...It's only December 30th. I'll get "nervous" if models look like this around January 30th. 6z GFS in 1 hour 50 minutes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Bellingham 28, dp 23 12z ECMWF in 10 hours 6 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Night shift on a Saturday night. Just finished my 2nd screwdriver. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 OK...I'll admit I'm getting a bit worried now. I still think there is a decent chance the models will come around over the next couple of days. If they don'tI have no idea why the IO MJO wave would fail to produce a good pattern for us given the context of this season. One thing I noticed today is the SOI has been very weak for a while now indicating the atmosphere is not in a very Ninaish configuration. A few things to watch for that could be signals for a favorable change for us would be. 1. MJO wave making into octant 5 (still not clear if it will get that far or not on this cycle)2. Higher SOI3. Very low (sub 1000mb pressure) over Darwin Historically these have been favorable triggers for us. This all having been said the GFS has certainly been hinting at the possibility of minor cold snaps around day 6 or 7 and day 11 or so. Those could easily develop into something more substantial on future runs. All I can say is a myriad of things are favorable for a good outcome.Geez I wonder why........................It couldn't have to do with the microscopic pieces of plastic the size of Texas floating in the central Pacific blocking movement could it? Nahhhhhh nothing manmade could POSSIBLY effect the ocean and disrupt the jetstream which the ocean is the main driver off....I mean of. (Slaps self on forehead at the stupidity of modern men) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Geez I wonder why........................It couldn't have to do with the microscopic pieces of plastic the size of Texas floating in the central Pacific blocking movement could it? Nahhhhhh nothing manmade could POSSIBLY effect the ocean and disrupt the jetstream which the ocean is the main driver off....I mean of. (Slaps self on forehead at the stupidity of modern men)Wait. WHAT? ............ 6z GFS in 58 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Down to 32! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Geez I wonder why........................It couldn't have to do with the microscopic pieces of plastic the size of Texas floating in the central Pacific blocking movement could it? Nahhhhhh nothing manmade could POSSIBLY effect the ocean and disrupt the jetstream which the ocean is the main driver off....I mean of. (Slaps self on forehead at the stupidity of modern men)I am a lurker on this sub, but I feel the need to call out your BS now. I'm pretty active in the politics thread if you wanna continue this discussion. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 27 currently. Models offer no hope right now... sad state of affairs. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 At least PDX got another freeze. A mild 48 here in Brookings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Geez I wonder why........................It couldn't have to do with the microscopic pieces of plastic the size of Texas floating in the central Pacific blocking movement could it? Nahhhhhh nothing manmade could POSSIBLY effect the ocean and disrupt the jetstream which the ocean is the main driver off....I mean of. (Slaps self on forehead at the stupidity of modern men) Kyle? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 27 currently. Models offer no hope right now... sad state of affairs.Phil said our window for a blast closes around Jan 20th. If true, We are in big trouble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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