December Weather In the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Bellingham down to 30, dewpoint 27. YWL-BLI gradient -8.5mb seems to be increasing.

[Winterdog]

Yup!

 

0z GEM looks pretty decent-good at day 10. Once that eastern US trough kicks out.

Almost identical to the 0Z GFS, a one day trough progressing into a ridge over the west coast

[ShawniganLake]

Bellingham down to 30, dewpoint 27. YWL-BLI gradient -8.5mb seems to be increasing.

Abbotsford is down to 25 already. Could be the coldest night of the winter so far. Not forecast to go much above freezing there until Wednesday.

[Front Ranger]

Bellingham down to 30, dewpoint 27. YWL-BLI gradient -8.5mb seems to be increasing.

 

Jim said this would happen!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

 

FWIW, Weather Channel is all in:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That looks more like a cool NW flow pattern their depicting. You have to be at elevation to do good with this pattern, ideally 1,000 feet or higher. It's not an Arctic blast pattern at all. We need the coldest anomalies just east of the Cascades. It's better than warm rain though.

[TT-SEA]

Jim said this would happen!

 

Yeah... last night.     

 

The models all showed northerly flow up there this evening... and we get easterly flow down here later.   

 

Looks like we get 5 consecutive dry days now.

[MossMan]

Down to 26 in Sumas, going to be a cold night for those without power up there.

[ShawniganLake]

[Winterdog]

The ensembles look like a lot of cold members but only one member goes below -5C.  Not much to wag your tail at (even for PDX).

[HighlandExperience]

The ensembles look like a lot of cold members but only one member goes below -5C. Not much to wag your tail at.

Nothing to write home about

[MossMan]

The ensembles look like a lot of cold members but only one member goes below -5C. Not much to wag your tail at.

They are lost...perhaps we will see more of nothing boring ridging, perhaps we will have cool onshore flow, perhaps we see Jan 1950, or everything inbetween. Pretty much any possibility is on the table by next weekend and on.

[luvssnow_spokane]

They posted one yesterday that showed above normal temperatures in the PNW.

I think these are generated by computers with very little involvement... It is just depicting what the models show. Pretty meaningless.

[TT-SEA]

Significant warm up at the 925mb level starting tonight into tomorrow on the 00Z ECMWF.    I guess that arctic air up north won't be making it too far south.

 

Here was the 925mb temps at 4 p.m. today:

 

 

 

And the 925mb temps at 4 p.m. tomorrow:

 

[snow_wizard]

OK...I'll admit I'm getting a bit worried now.  I still think there is a decent chance the models will come around over the next couple of days.  If they don't I have no idea why the IO MJO wave would fail to produce a good pattern for us given the context of this season.  One thing I noticed today is the SOI has been very weak for a while now indicating the atmosphere is not in a very Ninaish configuration.  A few things to watch for that could be signals for a favorable change for us would be.

 

1. MJO wave making into octant 5 (still not clear if it will get that far or not on this cycle)

2. Higher SOI

3. Very low (sub 1000mb pressure) over Darwin

 

Historically these have been favorable triggers for us.

 

This all having been said the GFS has certainly been hinting at the possibility of minor cold snaps around day 6 or 7 and day 11 or so.  Those could easily develop into something more substantial on future runs.  All I can say is a myriad of things are favorable for a good outcome.

[TT-SEA]

Official high at SEA this afternoon was 48... the ECMWF last night was actually a little too cool. 

[snow_wizard]

I think these are generated by computers with very little involvement... It is just depicting what the models show. Pretty meaningless.

 

Indeed.  The analog composite showed us cold, but the official outlook showed us warm.  Something screwy there.   

[ShawniganLake]

Down to 26 in Sumas, going to be a cold night for those without power up there.

No kidding. Still 22000 customers without power north of the border. Current windchill in Agassiz is 10F. 26F with a NE wind gusting to 35mph.

[snow_wizard]

Speaking of analog composites...early to mid Jan 1957 has been showing up more consistently than any other month for days now.  There have also been a number of others that had very good outcomes for us.

[snow_wizard]

No kidding. Still 22000 customers without power north of the border. Current windchill in Agassiz is 10F. 26F with a NE wind gusting to 35mph.

 

There is still a boat load of cold air available over southern BC.  It's been pretty darn cold up there for a good while now.

[luvssnow_spokane]

OK...I'll admit I'm getting a bit worried now.  I still think there is a decent chance the models will come around over the next couple of days.  If they don't I have no idea why the IO MJO wave would fail to produce a good pattern for us given the context of this season.  One thing I noticed today is the SOI has been very weak for a while now indicating the atmosphere is not in a very Ninaish configuration.  A few things to watch for that could be signals for a favorable change for us would be.

 

1. MJO wave making into octant 5 (still not clear if it will get that far or not on this cycle)

2. Higher SOI

3. Very low (sub 1000mb pressure) over Darwin

 

Historically these have been favorable triggers for us.

 

This all having been said the GFS has certainly been hinting at the possibility of minor cold snaps around day 6 or 7 and day 11 or so.  Those could easily develop into something more substantial on future runs.  All I can say is a myriad of things are favorable for a good outcome.

 

 

I think is time for a therapeutic group hug... -- Another block waisted? Maybe... I bet $100 monopoly dollars that the 500mb pattern and high pressure alignment will be perfect about March but sun angles will screw us. 

[snow_wizard]

Totally clear here now.  Should be another hard frost tonight.  Looks pretty chilly for the next few days.  Pretty impressive how many minor cold shots we have gotten this month.

[snow_wizard]

I think is time for a therapeutic group hug... -- Another block waisted? Maybe... I bet $100 monopoly dollars that the 500mb pattern and high pressure alignment will be perfect about March but sun angles will screw us. 

 

I think we have broken out of that regime now.  I still have high faith in this winter delivering.  I can't stress enough how many things are in our favor.

[ShawniganLake]

There is still a boat load of cold air available over southern BC. It's been pretty darn cold up there for a good while now.

Currently -21F near our cabin in the Cariboo.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It may be just me but I am liking the overall progression of tonight EURO better than many previous runs. I am sure it is just me though being dumb. I am feeling it could easily morph into something good in later runs if it continues. Some carrots of change that could lead to good things

[luvssnow_spokane]

Currently -21F near our cabin in the Cariboo.

Mediocre cold... #underperformingin2017 

[Guest El nina]

I think these are generated by computers with very little involvement... It is just depicting what the models show. Pretty meaningless.

I've also noticed they overhype almost everything on there too. It's pretty cringey.

[TT-SEA]

No kidding. Still 22000 customers without power north of the border. Current windchill in Agassiz is 10F. 26F with a NE wind gusting to 35mph.

 

I just did a Google map tour of that area... looks very much like Hwy 2 from Monroe to Skykomish.   It probably traps cold air like that area does too.    But the BC version has the huge advantage of a direct pipeline to cold from the interior.  

 

Hope BC looks like a nice place to live.    Also looks very much like Skykomish with mountains in every direction.  And it gets quite warm out there in the summer away from the marine layer most of the time.   

[MossMan]

It may be just me but I am liking the overall progression of tonight EURO better than many previous runs. I am sure it is just me though being dumb. I am feeling it could easily morph into something good in later runs if it continues. Some carrots of change that could lead to good things

Yeah I thought the same thing. My gut is saying we get something as early as a week from now but all we can do is sit back and see if the models become a little less confused.

[Guest El nina]

I think we have broken out of that regime now.  I still have high faith in this winter delivering.  I can't stress enough how many things are in our favor.

Well I must say I can see how people are feeling pessimistic about it when both you and Phil come out and say you're getting nervous...

[Gradient Keeper]

Well I must say I can see how people are feeling pessimistic about it when both you and Phil come out and say you're getting nervous...

It's only December 30th. I'll get "nervous" if models look like this around January 30th.

 

6z GFS in 1 hour 50 minutes!

[Gradient Keeper]

Bellingham 28, dp 23

 

12z ECMWF in 10 hours 6 minutes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift on a Saturday night. Just finished my 2nd screwdriver.

[WeatherArchive]

OK...I'll admit I'm getting a bit worried now.  I still think there is a decent chance the models will come around over the next couple of days.  If they don't

I have no idea why the IO MJO wave would fail to produce a good pattern for us given the context of this season.

 

  One thing I noticed today is the SOI has been very weak for a while now indicating the atmosphere is not in a very Ninaish configuration.  A few things to watch for that could be signals for a favorable change for us would be.

 

1. MJO wave making into octant 5 (still not clear if it will get that far or not on this cycle)

2. Higher SOI

3. Very low (sub 1000mb pressure) over Darwin

 

Historically these have been favorable triggers for us.

 

This all having been said the GFS has certainly been hinting at the possibility of minor cold snaps around day 6 or 7 and day 11 or so.  Those could easily develop into something more substantial on future runs.  All I can say is a myriad of things are favorable for a good outcome.

Geez I wonder why........................It couldn't have to do with the microscopic pieces of plastic the size of Texas floating in the central Pacific blocking movement could it?  Nahhhhhh nothing manmade could POSSIBLY effect the ocean and disrupt the jetstream which the ocean is the main driver off....I mean of.  (Slaps self on forehead at the stupidity of modern men)

[Gradient Keeper]

Geez I wonder why........................It couldn't have to do with the microscopic pieces of plastic the size of Texas floating in the central Pacific blocking movement could it?  Nahhhhhh nothing manmade could POSSIBLY effect the ocean and disrupt the jetstream which the ocean is the main driver off....I mean of.  (Slaps self on forehead at the stupidity of modern men)

Wait. WHAT? ............

 

6z GFS in 58 minutes

[MossMan]

Down to 32!

[Minny_Weather]

Geez I wonder why........................It couldn't have to do with the microscopic pieces of plastic the size of Texas floating in the central Pacific blocking movement could it? Nahhhhhh nothing manmade could POSSIBLY effect the ocean and disrupt the jetstream which the ocean is the main driver off....I mean of. (Slaps self on forehead at the stupidity of modern men)

I am a lurker on this sub, but I feel the need to call out your BS now. I'm pretty active in the politics thread if you wanna continue this discussion.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

27 currently. Models offer no hope right now... sad state of affairs.

[Jesse]

At least PDX got another freeze.

 

A mild 48 here in Brookings.

[Timmy]

Geez I wonder why........................It couldn't have to do with the microscopic pieces of plastic the size of Texas floating in the central Pacific blocking movement could it?  Nahhhhhh nothing manmade could POSSIBLY effect the ocean and disrupt the jetstream which the ocean is the main driver off....I mean of.  (Slaps self on forehead at the stupidity of modern men)

Kyle?

[ShawniganLake]

27 currently. Models offer no hope right now... sad state of affairs.

Phil said our window for a blast closes around Jan 20th. If true, We are in big trouble