December Weather In the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A poor winter like this will often lead to a lousy spring and summer. Essentially 8 months of the same, extended weather.

 

Except August of course. It will still torch.

 

Of course, cannot go a summer without Eugene is he new Redding posts. 

[Jesse]

Of course, cannot go a summer without Eugene is he new Redding posts.

The posts wouldn’t happen if it wasn’t becumming reality.

[Deweydog]

We're f*cked.

[Jesse]

We're f*cked.

Late January-early February could be a thang. I’m eyeing the 20th onward. Basically whatever the opposite of what Phil is predicting is probably the way to go right now.

 

Would like to see the WPAC forcing fade though. I do believe he is right that that is what is screwing us.

[Deweydog]

Late January-early February could be a thang. I’m eyeing the 20th onward. Basically whatever the opposite of what Phil is predicting is probably the way to go right now.

 

Would like to see the WPAC forcing fade though. I do believe he is right that that is what is screwing us.

My thinking is I agree with your thinking agreeing with other people who are thinking things about the whether.

 

#MLK

[Guest El nina]

My thinking is I agree with your thinking agreeing with other people who are thinking things about the whether.

 

#MLK

You keep talking about my #birthday.

[Jesse]

My thinking is I agree with your thinking agreeing with other people who are thinking things about the whether.

 

#MLK

MLK is b4 the 20th.

[BLI snowman]

My thinking is I agree with your thinking agreeing with other people who are thinking things about the whether.

 

#MLK

 

48/38 at PDX. Morning fog, (another) weak warm front overtakes us in the evening leading to some scattered drizzle. Highway 26 looking nicely drivable.

[Deweydog]

MLK is b4 the 20th.

Did you verify this with Fill?

[crf450ish]

So are we done with winter? Should I get my boat back in the water?

Winter started at the beginning x mas eve and ended Wednesday last week. That about sums it up....

[Deweydog]

48/38 at PDX. Morning fog, (another) weak warm front overtakes us in the evening leading to some scattered drizzle. Highway 26 looking nicely drivable.

Cloudy, 46/39 with light rain developing around 5pm. Breezy east winds near the gorge. Just wait until the 16th, though...

[Deweydog]

Megablast dropping due south at hour 192 on the Euro. Looks unavoidable.

[BLI snowman]

Cloudy, 46/39 with light rain developing around 5pm. Breezy east winds near the gorge. Just wait until the 16th, though...

 

Going to be a foggy one in outlying areas away from the gorge, one last hurrah as inversion season wanes!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS:
 

January

February

[Deweydog]

Going to be a foggy one in outlying areas away from the gorge, one last hurrah as inversion season wanes!

51/41 with a quick burst of southerlies between 16z and 21z. 37 mph gust at PDX. SNOW levels down to 2,000 feet by 04z on the 17th.

[BLI snowman]

51/41 with a quick burst of southerlies between 16z and 21z. 37 mph gust at PDX. SNOW levels down to 2,000 feet by 04z on the 17th.

 

Hawt.

 

After a one year hiatus, it's nice to see April return.

[Deweydog]

CFS:

 

January

February

Purrrrrsistance!

[Kayla]

At least the ECMWF shows some hope. Might even bust BLI and Deweys 16 day forecast.

[Deweydog]

At least the ECMWF shows some hope. Might even bust BLI and Deweys 16 day forecast.

My forecast is as progressive as the Euro.

[BLI snowman]

At least the ECMWF shows some hope. Might even bust BLI and Deweys 16 day forecast.

 

Does the control still show 1/13/1950?

 

I've been too giddy to even look!

[Kayla]

My forecast is as progressive as the Euro.

 

At least it shows the PNA going neutral to negative, sorta.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Euro is the best of the models. I'll ride that one.

[Front Ranger]

No, but the probability of a mega-blast is declining so long as that Baffin Bay/Greenland vortex stays put during what would be the precursory stages of the blast. If it’s still there in 10 days, I think the mega-blast can be called off this year. That doesn’t preclude one in March, though! Lol.

 

You know, I’ve been burned twice by the west-Pacific in the span of a year. I’m not going to let it happen again.

 

I just don't think it's that simple, Phil. You can always find reasons "things went wrong" when forecasts don't work out, but I think that's kind of like looking for what went wrong when a blind man driving a car with no brakes on a road coated with black ice gets in a an accident. There are so many variables that effect weather outcomes, and even if you knew exactly what all of them are and which are the most important, you'd still have a very low percentage chance of guessing when a major Arctic blast in the PNW would occur.

 

That being said, I admire your efforts to fit all the pieces of the puzzle together.

[Phil]

I just don't think it's that simple, Phil. You can always find reasons "things went wrong" when forecasts don't work out, but I think that's kind of like looking for what went wrong when a blind man driving a car with no brakes on a road coated with black ice gets in a an accident. There are so many variables that effect weather outcomes, and even if you knew exactly what all of them are and which are the most important, you'd still have a very low percentage chance of guessing when a major Arctic blast in the PNW would occur.

Eh, I kind of disagree. Foresight and hindsight in the realm of forecasting require different sets of lenses, in my opinion, because in the latter case you’re hindcasting observed behavior, versus extrapolating behaviors that have yet to occur, etc. There are scientifically verifiable methods to predict events within specific timeframes at longer ranges, from a probabilistic standpoint.

 

Of course, there’s always chicken/egg, domino theory, cause-effect, etc (like what’s the trigger/reason for the continued expansion of the warm pool/+NAO, etc).

 

However, what’s key in my opinion is how you analyze/weight these factors. The warm pool was always present. I thought it wouldn’t prevent a blast due to sufficient equstorward MJO/QBO forcing within the Indo domain. That looks like it may have been the wrong call.

[Front Ranger]

Even with the torching the past few days, looks like all major I-5 stations will end up colder than normal for December.

[Phil]

Not to be a Debbie downer here, but verbatim the 12z Euro is about to blow up a large +PNA as that Siberian Vortex bifurcated and sends the surf zone back into the NPAC.

 

Not saying I agree with it, but that’s what it’s indicating.

[ShawniganLake]

Not to be a Debbie downer here, but verbatim the 12z Euro is about to blow up a large +PNA as that Siberian Vortex sends the surf zone back into the NPAC.

Makes sense. It’s January after all.

 

Isn’t a NPAC surfzone a good thing in the long run?

[Phil]

Makes sense. It’s January after all.

 

Isn’t a NPAC surfzone a good thing in the long run?

Yeah, if it’s not right over you. Lol.

 

I reworded that post, btw. Note the expanded WPAC Hadley Cell there (as indicated by the higher heights in the subtropical Pacific underneath the NW-Pacific Vortex). That’ll throw the surf zone farther downstream.

[Front Ranger]

Eh, I kind of disagree. Foresight and hindsight in the realm of forecasting require different sets of lenses, in my opinion, because in the latter case you’re hindcasting observed behavior, versus extrapolating behaviors that have yet to occur, etc. There are scientifically verifiable methods to predict events within specific timeframes at longer ranges, from a probabilistic standpoint.

 

Of course, there’s always chicken/egg, domino theory, cause-effect, etc (like what’s the trigger/reason for the continued expansion of the warm pool/+NAO, etc).

 

However, what’s key in my opinion is how you analyze/weight these factors. The warm pool was always present. I thought it wouldn’t prevent a blast due to sufficient equstorward MJO/QBO forcing within the Indo domain. That looks like it may have been the wrong call.

 

Well, we came close enough to a major blast (albeit a little sooner then you were predicting) that I don't think it makes sense to say the WHEM warm pool was the one factor that kept those last couple dominoes from falling. If the pattern was a complete miss, then I think blaming the warm pool would make more sense. As you pointed out yourself, the big blocking ridge happened, it just never fully retrograded and the details of how it amplified just didn't work out for a major blast for the West, even though multiple ingredients were right there.

 

Looking at the first half of December pattern vs the second half, we can see how the progression was close, but ended up being a bit too far east and favoring the northern tier instead of the West (this is common for Nina Decembers, regardless of the state of the warm pool). Ultimately, it was too much amplification, not enough retrogression.

 

 

[Winterdog]

Many of us went into this winter with hopes riding squarely on the shoulders of a 25 year old student’s bold prediction that we would have an epic winter.  The problem is not Phil’s missed forecast; it’s the seduction of those members of the forum.  Why would anybody expect anyone’s forecast based on world atmospheric indicators more than two months before the targeted timeframe to be any more than a possible outcome with a low percentage of verification?  Anyone who gave more than a passing thought to his forecast is just plain gullible or ignorant.  To point a finger at Phil is totally ridiculous.  He did his best but was playing the roulette table and picked a number based on his knowledge of the global climate.  If he hits or even comes close he’s a genius, if he misses he has a basketful of reason’s why he missed.  The only real losers here are those who actually were holding on to his forecast as if it was chiseled onto a golden tablet.  As for me, I’m sticking with the wooly worm.

[ShawniganLake]

 

Many of us went into this winter with hopes riding squarely on the shoulders of a 25 year old student’s bold prediction that we would have an epic winter. The problem is not Phil’s missed forecast; it’s the seduction of those members of the forum. Why would anybody expect anyone’s forecast based on world atmospheric indicators more than two months before the targeted timeframe to be any more than a possible outcome with a low percentage of verification? Anyone who gave more than a passing thought to his forecast is just plain gullible or ignorant. To point a finger at Phil is totally ridiculous. He did his best but was playing the roulette table and picked a number based on his knowledge of the global climate. If he hits or even comes close he’s a genius, if he misses he has a basketful of reason’s why he missed. The only real losers here are those who actually were holding on to his forecast as if it was chiseled onto a golden tablet. As for me, I’m sticking with the wooly worm.

What’s the wooly worm telling you.

[crf450ish]

 

Many of us went into this winter with hopes riding squarely on the shoulders of a 25 year old student’s bold prediction that we would have an epic winter.  The problem is not Phil’s missed forecast; it’s the seduction of those members of the forum.  Why would anybody expect anyone’s forecast based on world atmospheric indicators more than two months before the targeted timeframe to be any more than a possible outcome with a low percentage of verification?  Anyone who gave more than a passing thought to his forecast is just plain gullible or ignorant.  To point a finger at Phil is totally ridiculous.  He did his best but was playing the roulette table and picked a number based on his knowledge of the global climate.  If he hits or even comes close he’s a genius, if he misses he has a basketful of reason’s why he missed.  The only real losers here are those who actually were holding on to his forecast as if it was chiseled onto a golden tablet.  As for me, I’m sticking with the wooly worm.

 

As for me....I'm happy I don't live so close to the ocean where as the possibility of an actual winter isn't even real. I'll say it and keep saying it.....western wa & western OR (except some areas) as well as NoCal are all less than or just about at the 100 mile inland mark from the Ocean...therefore the CLIMATE is going to dictate what happens 99.99999999999999999% of the time. Expecting that not to happen is unhealthy for ones mental state. Cold and snow lovers should not live on the west side of the cascade range. Plain and simple. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Many of us went into this winter with hopes riding squarely on the shoulders of a 25 year old student’s bold prediction that we would have an epic winter.  The problem is not Phil’s missed forecast; it’s the seduction of those members of the forum.  Why would anybody expect anyone’s forecast based on world atmospheric indicators more than two months before the targeted timeframe to be any more than a possible outcome with a low percentage of verification?  Anyone who gave more than a passing thought to his forecast is just plain gullible or ignorant.  To point a finger at Phil is totally ridiculous.  He did his best but was playing the roulette table and picked a number based on his knowledge of the global climate.  If he hits or even comes close he’s a genius, if he misses he has a basketful of reason’s why he missed.  The only real losers here are those who actually were holding on to his forecast as if it was chiseled onto a golden tablet.  As for me, I’m sticking with the wooly worm.

 

 

Phil is sort of the weather version of Joel Osteen. He spreads a prosperity gospel of what we want to happen. 

 

Jim on the other hand is more like my pastor when I was a kid. He was so passionate about the good news because he truly desperately wanted it to be true and felt his passion made it so.

[Winterdog]

What’s the wooly worm telling you.

To drink a lot.

[Phil]

Denying the warm pool here is like denying 2+2=4, in my opinion,

 

How can it possibly get any clearer than this?

 

Northward-expanded west-Pacific warm pool:

 

 

Where has the tropical convection been centered over the last month?

 

Yup... #OffEquatorForcing

 

How do DJF 500mb heights correlate to an enhanced west-Pacific warm pool?

 

Look familiar?

 

On that note, what have the last four winters looked like?

A near perfect match, with an expanded Atlantic Hadley Cell (relative to the Pacific Hadley Cell) producing some modest differences.

 

Super-duper clown range, but the 12z GEFS looks extremely promising later in the run.

Notice how it completely reverses the pattern relative to the warm pool signal, as off-equator WPAC convection shuts down:

 

[When warm pool forcing shuts down]

 

 

Versus the warm pool pattern:

 

[Front Ranger]

As for me....I'm happy I don't live so close to the ocean where as the possibility of an actual winter isn't even real. I'll say it and keep saying it.....western wa & western OR (except some areas) as well as NoCal are all less than or just about at the 100 mile inland mark from the Ocean...therefore the CLIMATE is going to dictate what happens 99.99999999999999999% of the time. Expecting that not to happen is unhealthy for ones mental state. Cold and snow lovers should not live on the west side of the cascade range. Plain and simple. 

 

Ok dude, we get it. You're very much in danger of entering broken record territory. 

[ShawniganLake]

As for me....I'm happy I don't live so close to the ocean where as the possibility of an actual winter isn't even real. I'll say it and keep saying it.....western wa & western OR (except some areas) as well as NoCal are all less than or just about at the 100 mile inland mark from the Ocean...therefore the CLIMATE is going to dictate what happens 99.99999999999999999% of the time. Expecting that not to happen is unhealthy for ones mental state. Cold and snow lovers should not live on the west side of the cascade range. Plain and simple.

I think this is the first time you’ve mentioned this. Honestly, I think the rarity of west side snow is what makes it exciting, for the majority of people.

[MossMan]

The Euro is about to release the motherload of cold air...before MLK!

[Front Ranger]

Denying the warm pool here is like denying 2+2=4, in my opinion,

 

How can it possibly get any clearer than this?      

 

I don't see anyone "denying the warm pool", or its correlations. But how do we know if the warm pool in this case may be more the egg than the chicken, and it's often difficult to predict what the chicken will do in advance (think PDO). Also, there have been plenty of times when the warm pool has been present and the PNW has scored.

 

Furthermore, I see some pretty large dissimilarities with this pattern:

 

 

And this one:

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

A mile down the road from cabin. Couger was eating a grouse and walked only 20ft off road and watched us. Pretty cool.