December Weather In the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

Just saw the official numbers for the Abbotsford area ice storm. 1.6 - 2.0” of ice accretion. That’s pretty crazy.

[Front Ranger]

Phil said our window for a blast closes around Jan 20th. If true, We are in big trouble

I hope no one is still taking stuff like this at face value.

[ShawniganLake]

I hope no one is still taking stuff like this at face value.

About as seriously as I’m taking anyone else’s predictions at this point. Including yours.

[Front Ranger]

About as seriously as I’m taking anyone else’s predictions at this point. Including yours.

I'm talking about the detailed stuff like exact dates, etc. I don't make those kind of predictions.

[Deweydog]

At least it's not smoky outside...

[MossMan]

Freezing fog and 30 currently.

[High Desert Mat!]

Phil said our window for a blast closes around Jan 20th. If true, We are in big trouble

Just as our window for the big blast starts between Dec 28- Jan 4? Our big blast will start January 27th give or take two days.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I am a lurker on this sub, but I feel the need to call out your BS now. I'm pretty active in the politics thread if you wanna continue this discussion.

Let's not feed the troll.  There are smart people on both sides of the AGW debate.  He is not one of them.

[Deweydog]

There's an 80-90% chance there will not be a big blast. This was true two weeks ago, two months ago, two years ago.

 

#probabilitiesareabitch

[Kayla]

GEM is once again worlds different than the GFS. GEM pattern progression seems more realistic IMO.

[Deweydog]

GEM is once again worlds different than the GFS. GEM pattern progression seems more realistic IMO.

They're both pretty chaotic beyond this round of broad ridging. Split flow to a January 1950 order of magnitude.

[MossMan]

They're both pretty chaotic beyond this round of broad ridging. Split flow to a January 1950 order of magnitude.

Presidents Day!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

They're both pretty chaotic beyond this round of broad ridging. Split flow to a January 1950 order of magnitude.

Yeah world s different would not be how I characterize them.

[Phil]

OK...I'll admit I'm getting a bit worried now. I still think there is a decent chance the models will come around over the next couple of days. If they don't I have no idea why the IO MJO wave would fail to produce a good pattern for us given the context of this season. One thing I noticed today is the SOI has been very weak for a while now indicating the atmosphere is not in a very Ninaish configuration. A few things to watch for that could be signals for a favorable change for us would be.

 

1. MJO wave making into octant 5 (still not clear if it will get that far or not on this cycle)

2. Higher SOI

3. Very low (sub 1000mb pressure) over Darwin

 

Historically these have been favorable triggers for us.

 

This all having been said the GFS has certainly been hinting at the possibility of minor cold snaps around day 6 or 7 and day 11 or so. Those could easily develop into something more substantial on future runs. All I can say is a myriad of things are favorable for a good outcome.

Thing is, the block actually verified. It was/is a beast and very close to the “sweet spot”, as you like to say.

 

Unfortunately, the WPAC/+NAO bridge has once again been dominant over the ENSO forcing in the WHEM.

[MossMan]

Thing is, the block actually verified. It was/is a beast and very close to the “sweet spot”, as you like to say.

 

Unfortunately, the WPAC/+NAO bridge has once again been dominant over the ENSO forcing in the WHEM.

So are we done with winter? Should I get my boat back in the water?

[The Swamp]

#lumpymarchrain

[Phil]

So are we done with winter? Should I get my boat back in the water?

No, but the probability of a mega-blast is declining so long as that Baffin Bay/Greenland vortex stays put during what would be the precursory stages of the blast. If it’s still there in 10 days, I think the mega-blast can be called off this year. That doesn’t preclude one in March, though! Lol.

 

You know, I’ve been burned twice by the west-Pacific in the span of a year. I’m not going to let it happen again.

[Kayla]

Yeah world s different would not be how I characterize them.

 

Split flow vs blocking maintains. Quite different.

[Deweydog]

No, but the probability of a mega-blast is declining so long as that Baffin Bay/Greenland vortex stays put during what would be the precursory stages of the blast. If it’s still there in 10 days, I think the mega-blast can be called off this year. That doesn’t preclude one in March, though! Lol.

 

You know, I’ve been burned twice by the west-Pacific in the span of a year. I’m not going to let it happen again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to end December with 23 sub-freezing lows. Not bad. The pattern shown on both the GFS and GEM is about the worst case scenario...

[ShawniganLake]

Going to end December with 23 sub-freezing lows. Not bad. The pattern shown on both the GFS and GEM is about the worst case scenario...

Yea. I don’t think we could draw up a worse 12Z GFS if we tried. GEM ensemble is absolutely putrid.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Split flow vs blocking maintains. Quite different.

 

Maybe I'm smoking something, but the GEM looks splitty too at the end. 

[MossMan]

Going to end December with 23 sub-freezing lows. Not bad. The pattern shown on both the GFS and GEM is about the worst case scenario...

Looking like another crap fest that is called January.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This showed up on my facebook memories this morning. Pretty amazing December 2015 was the snowiest on record at Crater Lake. 

 

[Deweydog]

This showed up on my facebook memories this morning. Pretty amazing December 2015 was the snowiest on record at Crater Lake.

 

Nino frontload.

[HighlandExperience]

So are we done with winter? Should I get my boat back in the water?

 

Still paying for that November blast. 

[Kayla]

Maybe I'm smoking something, but the GEM looks splitty too at the end. 

 

Uh, no...

 

[Deweydog]

Uh, no...

 

Uh, yes...

 

I think you're just focusing on the fact the Candian is unrealistically chilly.

[Kayla]

Uh, yes...

 

I think you're just focusing on the fact the Candian is unrealistically chilly.

 

So you're saying that is split flow??

[Deweydog]

So you're saying that is split flow??

It is. One could easily argue the Canadian is even more 'roided up than the GFS. It's almost so bad it's good.

[BLI snowman]

So you're saying that is split flow??

 

That is split flow. Just some weak southern stream energy trying to punch into us. Hardly a consolidated pattern at all.

[Kayla]

It is. One could easily argue the Canadian is even more 'roided up than the GFS. It's almost so bad it's good.

 

Hmm, interesting. Things just look so much more consolidated on the GEM with way less southern energy.

[ShawniganLake]

Uh, no...

 

Posted like this. The GEM looks worse than I thought at first glance.

[BLI snowman]

It's obvious that the models are secretly really good for us right now still.

 

Anyone who can't see that has such an unrealistically negative take on things!

[ShawniganLake]

[Jesse]

No, but the probability of a mega-blast is declining so long as that Baffin Bay/Greenland vortex stays put during what would be the precursory stages of the blast. If it’s still there in 10 days, I think the mega-blast can be called off this year. That doesn’t preclude one in March, though! Lol.

 

You know, I’ve been burned twice by the west-Pacific in the span of a year. I’m not going to let it happen again.

You did fantastically with the timing of the heatwaves in early August and early September.

 

When in doubt just assume we will torch and you will do fine.

[Deweydog]

Hmm, interesting. Things just look so much more consolidated on the GEM with way less southern energy.

At face value, the southern stream is stronger on the Canadian.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You did fantastically with the timing of the heatwaves in early August and early September.

 

When in doubt just assume we will torch and you will do fine.

 

I predict heatwaves July-September 2018!

[BLI snowman]

I predict heatwaves July-September 2018!

 

A poor winter like this will often lead to a lousy spring and summer. Essentially 8 months of the same, extended weather.

 

Except August of course. It will still torch.

[Kayla]

At face value, the southern stream is stronger on the Canadian.

 

Okay yeah I can see than now, especially at 250mb. Always a good time learning from the Dewey!