ShawniganLake Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Just saw the official numbers for the Abbotsford area ice storm. 1.6 - 2.0” of ice accretion. That’s pretty crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Phil said our window for a blast closes around Jan 20th. If true, We are in big troubleI hope no one is still taking stuff like this at face value. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 I hope no one is still taking stuff like this at face value.About as seriously as I’m taking anyone else’s predictions at this point. Including yours. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 About as seriously as I’m taking anyone else’s predictions at this point. Including yours.I'm talking about the detailed stuff like exact dates, etc. I don't make those kind of predictions. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 At least it's not smoky outside... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Freezing fog and 30 currently. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Phil said our window for a blast closes around Jan 20th. If true, We are in big troubleJust as our window for the big blast starts between Dec 28- Jan 4? Our big blast will start January 27th give or take two days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 I am a lurker on this sub, but I feel the need to call out your BS now. I'm pretty active in the politics thread if you wanna continue this discussion.Let's not feed the troll. There are smart people on both sides of the AGW debate. He is not one of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 There's an 80-90% chance there will not be a big blast. This was true two weeks ago, two months ago, two years ago. #probabilitiesareabitch Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 GEM is once again worlds different than the GFS. GEM pattern progression seems more realistic IMO. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 GEM is once again worlds different than the GFS. GEM pattern progression seems more realistic IMO.They're both pretty chaotic beyond this round of broad ridging. Split flow to a January 1950 order of magnitude. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 They're both pretty chaotic beyond this round of broad ridging. Split flow to a January 1950 order of magnitude.Presidents Day! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 They're both pretty chaotic beyond this round of broad ridging. Split flow to a January 1950 order of magnitude.Yeah world s different would not be how I characterize them. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 OK...I'll admit I'm getting a bit worried now. I still think there is a decent chance the models will come around over the next couple of days. If they don't I have no idea why the IO MJO wave would fail to produce a good pattern for us given the context of this season. One thing I noticed today is the SOI has been very weak for a while now indicating the atmosphere is not in a very Ninaish configuration. A few things to watch for that could be signals for a favorable change for us would be. 1. MJO wave making into octant 5 (still not clear if it will get that far or not on this cycle)2. Higher SOI3. Very low (sub 1000mb pressure) over Darwin Historically these have been favorable triggers for us. This all having been said the GFS has certainly been hinting at the possibility of minor cold snaps around day 6 or 7 and day 11 or so. Those could easily develop into something more substantial on future runs. All I can say is a myriad of things are favorable for a good outcome.Thing is, the block actually verified. It was/is a beast and very close to the “sweet spot”, as you like to say. Unfortunately, the WPAC/+NAO bridge has once again been dominant over the ENSO forcing in the WHEM. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Thing is, the block actually verified. It was/is a beast and very close to the “sweet spot”, as you like to say. Unfortunately, the WPAC/+NAO bridge has once again been dominant over the ENSO forcing in the WHEM.So are we done with winter? Should I get my boat back in the water? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 #lumpymarchrain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 So are we done with winter? Should I get my boat back in the water?No, but the probability of a mega-blast is declining so long as that Baffin Bay/Greenland vortex stays put during what would be the precursory stages of the blast. If it’s still there in 10 days, I think the mega-blast can be called off this year. That doesn’t preclude one in March, though! Lol. You know, I’ve been burned twice by the west-Pacific in the span of a year. I’m not going to let it happen again. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Yeah world s different would not be how I characterize them. Split flow vs blocking maintains. Quite different. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 No, but the probability of a mega-blast is declining so long as that Baffin Bay/Greenland vortex stays put during what would be the precursory stages of the blast. If it’s still there in 10 days, I think the mega-blast can be called off this year. That doesn’t preclude one in March, though! Lol. You know, I’ve been burned twice by the west-Pacific in the span of a year. I’m not going to let it happen again. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Going to end December with 23 sub-freezing lows. Not bad. The pattern shown on both the GFS and GEM is about the worst case scenario... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Going to end December with 23 sub-freezing lows. Not bad. The pattern shown on both the GFS and GEM is about the worst case scenario...Yea. I don’t think we could draw up a worse 12Z GFS if we tried. GEM ensemble is absolutely putrid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Split flow vs blocking maintains. Quite different. Maybe I'm smoking something, but the GEM looks splitty too at the end. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Going to end December with 23 sub-freezing lows. Not bad. The pattern shown on both the GFS and GEM is about the worst case scenario...Looking like another crap fest that is called January. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 This showed up on my facebook memories this morning. Pretty amazing December 2015 was the snowiest on record at Crater Lake. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 This showed up on my facebook memories this morning. Pretty amazing December 2015 was the snowiest on record at Crater Lake. Nino frontload. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 So are we done with winter? Should I get my boat back in the water? Still paying for that November blast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Maybe I'm smoking something, but the GEM looks splitty too at the end. Uh, no... Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Uh, no... Uh, yes... I think you're just focusing on the fact the Candian is unrealistically chilly. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Uh, yes... I think you're just focusing on the fact the Candian is unrealistically chilly. So you're saying that is split flow?? Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 So you're saying that is split flow??It is. One could easily argue the Canadian is even more 'roided up than the GFS. It's almost so bad it's good. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 So you're saying that is split flow?? That is split flow. Just some weak southern stream energy trying to punch into us. Hardly a consolidated pattern at all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 It is. One could easily argue the Canadian is even more 'roided up than the GFS. It's almost so bad it's good. Hmm, interesting. Things just look so much more consolidated on the GEM with way less southern energy. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Uh, no... Posted like this. The GEM looks worse than I thought at first glance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 It's obvious that the models are secretly really good for us right now still. Anyone who can't see that has such an unrealistically negative take on things! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 No, but the probability of a mega-blast is declining so long as that Baffin Bay/Greenland vortex stays put during what would be the precursory stages of the blast. If it’s still there in 10 days, I think the mega-blast can be called off this year. That doesn’t preclude one in March, though! Lol. You know, I’ve been burned twice by the west-Pacific in the span of a year. I’m not going to let it happen again.You did fantastically with the timing of the heatwaves in early August and early September. When in doubt just assume we will torch and you will do fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 Hmm, interesting. Things just look so much more consolidated on the GEM with way less southern energy.At face value, the southern stream is stronger on the Canadian. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 You did fantastically with the timing of the heatwaves in early August and early September. When in doubt just assume we will torch and you will do fine. I predict heatwaves July-September 2018! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 31, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 I predict heatwaves July-September 2018! A poor winter like this will often lead to a lousy spring and summer. Essentially 8 months of the same, extended weather. Except August of course. It will still torch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 31, 2017 Report Share Posted December 31, 2017 At face value, the southern stream is stronger on the Canadian. Okay yeah I can see than now, especially at 250mb. Always a good time learning from the Dewey! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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