Tom Posted December 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 A takeaway from the GFS run today, you can see it is trying to phase the southern stream of energy over the OV... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 @ Jaster, boy, this sure looks like the evolution of the late Oct GL's bomb, doesn't it??? Last minute trends bring me back to those days of tracking the southern energy phasing with the northern piece. It's not entirely the same, but certainly brings flashbacks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 A takeaway from the GFS run today, you can see it is trying to phase the southern stream of energy over the OV...Wouldn't that lean more toward a GEM solution? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Interesting runs so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Wouldn't that lean more toward a GEM solution?Definitely, and this season, I have seen several storm systems in the medium range shift more towards focusing in on the southern energy rather than the northern piece. For instance, the bigger systems that I recall were the Oct 23rd/24th GL's bombs/Nov 17th-18th lower lakes storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 So GFS weakens toward Lakes while GEM bombs out. Model madness 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 I can say with confidence that this actually doesn't look bad for us. Models always do this, especially the GFS. watch this thing get wound up once on land, and have a nice defo band over us with a 3-5" band and isolated 6-7", while Iowa, Minnesota, and areas east get WSW's. Just my two cents! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 It's times like this where we should just ride the Euro. It's usually more consistent within 120 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 So GFS weakens toward Lakes while GEM bombs out. Model madnessBoth show the lead wave weakening but the GGEM phases the southern energy a lot better and the GFS bias is in play here. Now, I'd like to see the Euro showing a phased system instead of relying on the GGEM for guidance. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 I can say with confidence that this actually doesn't look bad for us. Models always do this, especially the GFS. watch this thing get wound up once on land, and have a nice defo band over us with a 3-5" band and isolated 6-7", while Iowa, Minnesota, and areas east get WSW's. Just my two cents!I can agree with that assumption. Trends this season with systems as such that dig have been wetter as we got closer in time. There's only been a couple that trended weaker and the most recent one was a clipper. So I'd roll with the idea of Juice on this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 It's times like this where we should just ride the Euro. It's usually more consistent within 120 hours. Yup. Nobody should be getting too exited until the king gets on board, regardless of what the GFS says. And the Canadian should always be taken with about a mountain of salt, but it can have the right idea, one in awhile...... However, the southeast trend may bode well for us to steal a minor event from wrap around. I'd feel better about it if I lived north of hwy 20, go figure. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Ugly. Towel in hand. Haha! IA and WI peeps gonna get rocked.Already? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 12z Ukie digging this storm down towards the Texarkana region...the GGEM may have had the right idea after all...we'll see what the Euro shows... http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Already?It’s in hand....but I’ll wait to throw it until tomorrow. I’ve seen this act before. We need to get an early phase and a more wound up system for a NW pull. Having the major models all jump on the SE trend is not good. But I’ll take an inch or two. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 We may be seeing the -EPO driving the storm farther SE as we get closer to the event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 It’s in hand....but I’ll wait to throw it until tomorrow. I’ve seen this act before. We need to get an early phase and a more wound up system for a NW pull. Having the major models all jump on the SE trend is not good. But I’ll take an inch or two.Right. Still lots at play for you. Even if the GGEM has the right Idea if the that lead wave weakens that thing could still cut hard. Way to much time left to throw the towel. Especially considering the lack of snow cover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 12z GEFS SLP mean now tracking south of Chicago...C KC/MO/C IL/SE MI track... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 12z GEFS members actually have more spread. Mean is actually north and west of 6z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 UK in line with the GEM. I can't tell for sure where the rain/snow line is, but likely the defo area is snow. http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/2017121800/conus/ukmet_6hr_precip_conus_120.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Man, this system is getting interesting, even around here. Still though, we will likely see more ideas going forward. I think the Euro follows the trend. Just my gut feeling on this based on what I’m seeing and seasonal trends. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Things are starting to look interesting around here. We'll have to see if the SE bleed continues and whether there's a last minute slight adjustment to the NW. Those NW corrections are killer around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Its totally different evolution of the storm this morning. Sensible weather wise it looks like a simple shift SE when in fact it isnt that at all. If the southern piece that is influencing and becoming stronger. That piece have actually jumped NW as it has become stronger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 12z UK is now a whiff for Minneapolis. Unfortunately, this run delays the organization of the southern wave, so there's very little precip until it's past Iowa. http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/2017121812/conus/ukmet_mslp_conus_108.pnghttp://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/2017121812/conus/ukmet_acc_precip_conus_120.png Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 my bad, i posted the 00z UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 @ Jaster, boy, this sure looks like the evolution of the late Oct GL's bomb, doesn't it??? Last minute trends bring me back to those days of tracking the southern energy phasing with the northern piece. It's not entirely the same, but certainly brings flashbacks. It may work out to be more like the Oct 10/11 or 13/14 systems, but agree, there's plenty of similarities Definitely, and this season, I have seen several storm systems in the medium range shift more towards focusing in on the southern energy rather than the northern piece. For instance, the bigger systems that I recall were the Oct 23rd/24th GL's bombs/Nov 17th-18th lower lakes storm. Well, if indeed this ends up delaying the strengthening phase it would be very much like the Nov 17/18 storm in that regard (remember that early GFS run flashed a mega-bliz for E Neb). So far, nothing shows this bringing me more than a sideways dusting, so I'm hopeful for others here including yourself to score well from this. An intense RN>>SN scenario is an intriguing scenario, for it's rarity alone, so I'm certainly following along here. We know how this goes tho, it's a huge forum and aside from a massive bowling ball, there's bound to be winners and losers.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Euro looks about the same as last night through 72 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Euro is basically a carbon copy of it's 00z run. at hour 96 there is a long and weakening trough from E Iowa to east of Chicago and extending SW down into TX. Looks weak and so far not seeing anything that would make me thing a secondary low will form behind it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 No big dog but I’ll take 4-6” per the Euro. Nice recovery from 0z. This hobby is madenning. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Yeah, the euro is pretty darn consistent. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121812/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_102.png 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 It may be consistent but i sure remember the GFS having a better track record so far this winter. We shall see what happens. Nice to know we are back in play here in Nebraska. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 It may be consistent but i sure remember the GFS having a better track record so far this winter. We shall see what happens. Nice to know we are back in play here in Nebraska.The EURO and GFS are not far apart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 The EURO and GFS are not far apart.One covers here and the other one doesn't. That's the issue here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 No big dog but I’ll take 4-6” per the Euro. Nice recovery from 0z. This hobby is madenning.Ain’t that the truth! The Euro does show it trying to strengthen once near the GL’s so prob some more room there for excitement. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 If i wanted a storm I'd definitely want the GFS on my side then the euro. I've trusted the european in too many instances only to get majorly disappointed lol. Believe me. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Honestly gotta side with Craig on that one. I think the EURO is still king, but gosh, the last few years, atleast in it's storm-handling out in this area, it has been way off, and GFS is usually pretty good, even though it also has its fair share of whiffs. I'll take the GFS right now, but certainly don't like having the EURO against us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 If i wanted a storm I'd definitely want the GFS on my side then the euro. I've trusted the european in too many instances only to get majorly disappointed lol. Believe me.But would you think differently if the Euro showed a favorable outcome for your area? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 But would you think differently if the Euro showed a favorable outcome for your area? Kinda a loaded question tbh. I'd be siding (rooting for) whichever was treating mby the best. That's how this rolls. All the models have improved to the point where they take turns "nailing it". Wasn't that way in the past, but has become that way it seems. You always hope that the one showing the best outcome is the one that has caught on with the latest trend/adjustment/data ingest. Like you said, this is a rough pastime! pas·timeˈpasˌtīm/noun an activity that someone does regularly for enjoyment rather than work; a hobby. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 Kinda a loaded question tbh. I'd be siding (rooting for) whichever was treating mby the best. That's how this rolls. All the models have improved to the point where they take turns "nailing it". Wasn't that way in the past, but has become that way it seems. You always hope that the one showing the best outcome is the one that has caught on with the latest trend/adjustment/data ingest. Like you said, this is a rough pastime! pas·timeˈpasˌtīm/ noun an activity that someone does regularly for enjoyment rather than work; a hobby.All the models? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 18, 2017 Report Share Posted December 18, 2017 The GOM is open for business. I am seeing moisture building up down there. Something to keep an eye on the next few days. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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