January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[Grizzcoat]

GFS looking mighty interesting next week--- ie. hr 150 etc.

[Snowlover76]

Well looks like winter ends next week out here. Once the warmth comes I think it's here for good.

[Tony]

Gem continues to show the weekend storm while GFS says no way. Gem has not wavered at all on this. Let's see who caves first

[chances14]

just an FYI, ryan maue has free euro weeklies on his site http://wx.graphics/models/eps/eps.php

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Well looks like winter ends next week out here. Once the warmth comes I think it's here for good.

Do you even look at anything? lol. 

 

The GFS looks crazy

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018010500/162/snku_acc.us_c.png

[Minny_Weather]

Well looks like winter ends next week out here. Once the warmth comes I think it's here for good.

Yes, screw February! That month doesn't exist.

[gabel23]

The GFS still looks very bizarre. It brings in a very strong storm but then it flatten's out. On an interesting side note; as my memory serves me, when there is a monster storm on the east coast there usually is another behind it out in the plains. I can recall a few of our major storms, as we seem to struggle for anything significant this past decade, when there is a major nor'easter there seemed to be a snowstorm downstream a week later. Only time will tell; if the EURO and GFS are showing something in that time frame then we have a shot......

[Minny_Weather]

Good God, GFS shows a 30°F 2m temp drop DURING the storm. That'd be reminiscent of the 1888 Schoolhouse blizzard here. In fact, it'd be the exact same conditions. Starting out unseasonably mild, ending with below zero wind chills. Thankfully with the technology we have today, there wouldn't be quite as many casualties.

 

I'm not jumping on board yet. One more day.

[NH4NU]

Gives Omaha 5.3" in 6hr window lol 

 

 

Do you even look at anything? lol. 

 

The GFS looks crazy

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018010500/162/snku_acc.us_c.png

[hlcater]

Good God, GFS shows a 30°F 2m temp drop DURING the storm. That'd be reminiscent of the 1888 Schoolhouse blizzard here. In fact, it'd be the exact same conditions. Starting out unseasonably mild, ending with below zero wind chills. Thankfully with the technology we have today, there wouldn't be quite as many casualties.

 

I'm not jumping on board yet. One more day.

I'd wait 2 or 3 yet, although I'd feel safe in a decent storm occurring if its still there tomorrow. Still too early to have any significant confidence in track I feel. Although a common theme is a change over to snow that benefits almost everyone here, which is nice.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I'm cautiously optimistic! The GEM is a snooze fest though.

[Minny_Weather]

I'd wait 2 or 3 yet, although I'd feel safe in a decent storm occurring if its still there tomorrow. Still too early to have any significant confidence in track I feel. Although a common theme is a change over to snow that benefits almost everyone here, which is nice.

Storms with rain changing to snow are my favorites imo. As long as it's more snow than rain obviously, I think it makes it more dramatic. If only it was March, those thunderstorms changing to snow are the best.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm cautiously optimistic! The GEM is a snooze fest though.

Yeah let's hope models don't follow that. The GEM has not been trash this year.

[james1976]

1.1" of fluff this evening. Still snowing lightly.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Yeah let's hope models don't follow that. The GEM has not been trash this year.

It's brother though the EURO is completely different. Which is odd.

[NEJeremy]

We’ve had plenty of storms in the 5-7 day period which showed up on multiple consecutive runs on one model and then completely disappear or go to crap. I’m watching but not holding my breath yet.

[westMJim]

It is now down to -9° here at my house. A much warmer +2° last reading at the airport. 

[Niko]

Currently @ -4F.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow what the hell... turns a good storm into just a trough....we've seen this show before folks

 

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Don't know why I act like I am surprised each time there are huge differences lol, it can never be easy.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

LOL, its a fast moving cold front. A 2017 Central Plains special on the menu all winter long! 

[hlcater]

Wow what the hell... turns a good storm into just a trough....we've seen this show before folks

 

 

The reason it does this is because this run places more emphasis on a wave in the northern stream(wow, who woulda thought!) Compared to the GFS and yesterday's 00z euro which both have the northern piece weak. However on the 12z run we saw a little emphasis placed on the weak northern stream wave, but this run feautres a lot more emphasis into a northern stream system and the southern one kinda craps the bed and winds up a suppressed and weak wave. We'll have to see if this trend continues.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010500/144/sfcmslp.conus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010412/168/sfcmslp.conus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010400/168/sfcmslp.conus.png

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The reason it does this is because this run places more emphasis on a wave in the northern stream(wow, who woulda thought!) Compared to the GFS and yesterday's 00z euro which both have the northern piece weak. However on the 12z run we saw a little emphasis placed on the weak northern stream wave, but this run feautres a lot more emphasis into a northern stream system and the southern one kinda craps the bed and winds up a suppressed and weak wave. We'll have to see if this trend continues.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010500/144/sfcmslp.conus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010412/168/sfcmslp.conus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018010400/168/sfcmslp.conus.png

Yeah, of course. Definitely saw a couple of those scenarios in the gfs ensembles. But overall the GFS has been upping the ante today.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

lol not that 6z really matters but the 6z GFS just jumped way north again. So now we have the EURO which is way south, the latest GFS which just jumped north and the canadian model that barely even has a storm. Let the games begin!

[Tom]

@ Madtown, 00z EPS suggesting a significant warm up during your trip up north (+10-15C) AN temps centered over the W GL's region.  It's going to get warm folks.  After this abnormally frigid stretch, people will be busting out their shorts and T-shirts during this period!  Speaking of cold, Chicago ranks in the #4 spot as the coldest open to January...

 

[Tom]

Taking a look back at the LRC cycle 1, the evolution of the 500mb pattern across N.A  by mid month, beginning between the 15th-17th of the month, vividly reminds me of what happened back in the middle of Oct when the jet began to impact the PAC NW/West,  which caused downstream effects and pumped up the GL's ridge/E C.A. ridge.  How did this AN pattern end???  The late October GL's bomb and this potential system, centered around the 22nd (give or take a couple days) will shift the pattern into a cooler regime which is somewhat what the Euro weeklies were showing last night.

[james1976]

I wouldnt mind some normal temps after this cold stretch.

1.1" was my total last night

10.7" on the season

[Tom]

I wouldnt mind some normal temps after this cold stretch.

1.1" was my total last night

10.7" on the season

You got me beat...almost exactly double...pretty sad!  FWIW, last nights 00z EPS looked bleak for the system next week.  

[Snowshoe]

Try living in northern and central Wisconsin where it is supposed to snow. At least it's been cold so I can ice fish.

 

This is the second consecutive winter in which there has not even been a viable snowstorm THREAT, let alone a storm hitting, in the Chicago area--Hard to believe

[Madtown]

Pretty depressing when after all this cold the trails are gonna melt out in a day or 2. Maybe should look at rebooking in Feb?...Maybe not that bad accuweather has temps around 30. John dee saying everything stays snow north of Wausau.

[Snowshoe]

5-10F AN is still at or below freezing in many areas.

 

Tough to say at this point, but a good 5-10F AN???  I know your going up north so depending on where the storm track sets up you may not get as warm.  We'll see how this plays out and I also want to mention that during the period your going up there there is a strong "cutter" signal and illustrates an active storm track which fits the BSR.

[Tom]

Pretty depressing when after all this cold the trails are gonna melt out in a day or 2. Maybe should look at rebooking in Feb?

How much snow do they have OTG where you are heading???  Are you going to  the U.P.??

[Tom]

5-10F AN is still at or below freezing in many areas.

True, but that may be underdone on the warmth, esp if you get a warm cutter and pump temps dramatically.

[Stacsh]

GRR mentioned a run at 40 next week.. Pretty amazing considering anywhere from 8" to 18" snowpack in southern Michigan. 

[Madtown]

Manitowish waters area...could get to the up..but extra trail sticker... and still need to ride there and back...maybe get lucky and get a good dump while were up there.

[Tom]

00z GEFS illustrating the PAC firehouse aiming into the west coast....big flip in the PAC pattern coming...

 

 

[Tom]

Manitowish waters area...could get to the up..but extra trail sticker... and still need to ride there and back...maybe get lucky and get a good dump while were up there.

True, and that is on the table given the dominant pattern that has had the main snows this season up north and east.  

[westMJim]

RECORD LOW TIED

With a low of -9° Grand Rapids tied the record low for this date last set in1968. At this time it is cloudy here at my house and the current temperature is 0°

[westMJim]

Climatology for today January 5^th    At Grand Rapids, MI

 

The average H/L is 31/19

The record high is 55° set in 1946 the coldest maximum is 5° set in 1912

The record low is -9° set in 2018 and 1968 the warmest minimum is 45° set in 2007

The most snow fall is 6.4” in 1954

The most on the ground is 17” in 1999

Last year the H/L was 17/7 and there was 1” of snow on the ground

[Tom]

GRR mentioned a run at 40 next week.. Pretty amazing considering anywhere from 8" to 18" snowpack in southern Michigan. 

With the warmth coming, that fluff usually gets nuked in the sunshine.  Hopefully it sticks around because that would suck bad to see it disappear for you guys.