January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[Snowlover76]

Do you even look at anything? lol.

 

The GFS looks crazy

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018010500/162/snku_acc.us_c.png

My back still hurts from shoveling all the snow the GFS has show this winter

[jaster220]

With the warmth coming, that fluff usually gets nuked in the sunshine.  Hopefully it sticks around because that would suck bad to see it disappear for you guys.

 

A day at 40F will settle it (a bit), but we'd need 50's with a warm moist airmass, or hvy warm rain for the deeper areas he speaks of to go bare. Ofc, a 10-15 day stretch of 40's would do it as well. 

 

What's the secret to uploading into a post a short video??

[jaster220]

Marshall scored yet another dbl digit below temp overnight at -11F  Man this reminds me of those 90's in NMI - cold, cold, cold and tons of LES 

[Tom]

A day at 40F will settle it (a bit), but we'd need 50's with a warm moist airmass, or hvy warm rain for the deeper areas he speaks of to go bare. Ofc, a 10-15 day stretch of 40's would do it as well.

 

What's the secret to uploading into a post a short video??

If those DP’s creep up, it won’t be good...and yes, it would take a good stretch of warm days/nights to completely whipe out the snow in the deeper LES belts, though doubtful. As for your vid, is it something you recorded? If so, might have to create a link for it. Have you uploaded it on a site somewhere? That would be the easiest way and share the link.

[Tony]

0z Euro trended towards the Gem somewhat for at least laying down a couple inches for this weekend. By 0z tonight we should have a pretty good idea of what to expect for the weekend. End of next week up for grabs at this point. 

[Tom]

0z Euro trended towards the Gem somewhat for at least laying down a couple inches for this weekend. By 0z tonight we should have a pretty good idea of what to expect for the weekend. End of next week up for grabs at this point.

Ya, even the 12z NAM has trended north with the accumulating snow.

[jaster220]

Ya, even the 12z NAM has trended north with the accumulating snow.

 

Lake Erie jack-pots!   

[Tony]

Here is the 0z Gem run. Lets see how it matches up with the 12z Gem and 12z Euro.

[Niko]

Currently @ -2F w deep blue skies. Tbh, I can use a "January Thaw". It will feel nice for a change. As for the system this weekend. So far, couple inches looking likely, but its not all that impressive.

[Niko]

@WestMJim

 

Which Winter seems colder to you...... 2013-14 or this one?

[Tom]

12z GFS likes NE and MSP...

[St Paul Storm]

994 just west of KC. Yes please.

[Tom]

12z GFS...better for those out west, but not those in SE NE....there's your storm MN...

[Tom]

The best looking storm at 500mb all season out in the central Plains....to bad it shears out...although, these finer details can be ironed out later, esp with teleconnections that support blocking...

 

 

 

[Tom]

Knowing the LRC's long term long wave trough position, I'm more inclined to believe a strengthening system cutting up towards the GL's....

[St Paul Storm]

12z GEM getting on board with the GFS for late next week. Too bad it’s still an hour 138 dream.

[Minny_Weather]

f***** rain/snow line.

 

In places that AREN'T screwed by the rain/snow line, GFS makes blizzard conditions look likely. 

[gabel23]

This looks like a spring time storm set-up. Central Nebraska/Dakota/Minny special with the rain falling for us. Lots of time to change, just don't dry slot us we need the precip bad!!!

[westMJim]

@WestMJim

 

Which Winter seems colder to you...... 2013-14 or this one?

This year December at Grand Rapids had a mean of 24.4° In December 2013 the mean was 26.1° so this December was colder in snow fall This December GRR reported 32.9” in 2013 it was 34.7” so 2013 was a little snowier as of January 5^th this year GRR had a seasonal total of 36.7” in 2014 as of January 5^th the total was 45.9” so at this point in the winter of 2013/14 GRR had more snow fall.  Note there was a 5 day January thaw in January from the 10^th to the 14^th

At Detroit December 2013 the mean temperature was 26.8° This year the mean was 26.6ׄ° so this December was just a little colder then 2013 at Detroit. As for snow fall in December of 2013 Detroit reported 15.5” of snow and this year it was 22.5” as of January 5^th the seasonal snow fall in 2013/14 was 37.7” and this year it is now at 23.0” so the winter of 2013/14 was snowier but not colder at both Detroit and Grand Rapids.

[Snowlover76]

I'm kinda cheering for rain. I have a flight that day.

 

 

 

Sorry guys

[jaster220]

If those DP’s creep up, it won’t be good...and yes, it would take a good stretch of warm days/nights to completely whipe out the snow in the deeper LES belts, though doubtful. As for your vid, is it something you recorded? If so, might have to create a link for it. Have you uploaded it on a site somewhere? That would be the easiest way and share the link.

 

Tried, but having no success yet..

 

Anyhow, my surfing and posting time has really been cut into lately due to some pretty hardcore commuting conditions that are the snowiest for me in many years..perhaps since my days in the NMI snowbelts

 

Around the Berrien/Van Buren cnty line:

 

 

Downtown Hartford during a lul in the +SN

 

 

Downtown Benton Harbor this morning after they plowed

 

[Niko]

Tried, but having no success yet..

 

Anyhow, my surfing and posting time has really been cut into lately due to some pretty hardcore commuting conditions that are the snowiest for me in many years..perhaps since my days in the NMI snowbelts

 

Around the Berrien/Van Buren cnty line:

 

DSC00042.JPG

DSC00046.JPG

DSC00051.JPG

 

Downtown Hartford during a lul in the +SN

 

DSC00054.JPG

 

Downtown Benton Harbor this morning after they plowed

 

DSC00058.JPG

Add up that snowpack!

[Niko]

This year December at Grand Rapids had a mean of 24.4° In December 2013 the mean was 26.1° so this December was colder in snow fall This December GRR reported 32.9” in 2013 it was 34.7” so 2013 was a little snowier as of January 5^th this year GRR had a seasonal total of 36.7” in 2014 as of January 5^th the total was 45.9” so at this point in the winter of 2013/14 GRR had more snow fall.  Note there was a 5 day January thaw in January from the 10^th to the 14^th

At Detroit December 2013 the mean temperature was 26.8° This year the mean was 26.6ׄ° so this December was just a little colder then 2013 at Detroit. As for snow fall in December of 2013 Detroit reported 15.5” of snow and this year it was 22.5” as of January 5^th the seasonal snow fall in 2013/14 was 37.7” and this year it is now at 23.0” so the winter of 2013/14 was snowier but not colder at both Detroit and Grand Rapids.

Great info! That was where I was confused. Was not sure whether it was colder or snowier during that timeframe (13-14' vs this year).

[NEJeremy]

Highs in the mid to upper 50s on Wednesday on the GFS. Long ways to fall for it to switch to snow. I don't mind a little rain at the front if there's a quick switchover, but hate the storms that are 90% rain duration and then it snows for a couple of hours at the end. 

[snowstorm83]

12z GFS has 7" in NW Lancaster and like 0.2" in SE. What a nightmare cutoff. 12z euro will be interesting, especially since last night's run was a KS/MO special.

[Niko]

So, now that Grayson is outta the way, we will have to focus on Hunter. Lets see how this guy plays out. I am thinking since there is a very strong HP situated over the Carolina's, it pushes this system further north or North East, rather due east. Still some time for models to work this thing out.

[NEJeremy]

I'm kinda cheering for rain. I have a flight that day.

 

 

 

Sorry guys

Me too actually. My wife is leaving town Thursday for the weekend leaving me a free man all weekend if she is gone with the kids. Snowstorm= no trip and no binge drinking for me

[Niko]

Highs in the mid to upper 50s on Wednesday on the GFS. Long ways to fall for it to switch to snow. I don't mind a little rain at the front if there's a quick switchover, but hate the storms that are 90% rain duration and then it snows for a couple of hours at the end. 

I also don't like it when it snows several inches and then, afterwards changes to rain and melts off everything. That is another combo I dislike very much.

[CentralNebWeather]

These sharp cutoffs can be good or bad in Central Nebraska.  Sometimes it goes to much Northwest and I am dry slotted.  This is one to watch for sure, but not getting too excited.

[CentralNebWeather]

GEM looks very similar to the GFS.  We'll see.  

[bud2380]

Canadian

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2018010512/168/snku_024h.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

UK is further south than the GFS.  But frankly I'm going to be too far south and too far east for this storm.  Iowa has been an SLP magnet these past two winters.  Any reasonably strong storm has tracked right through the state just about everytime.  

 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[Tom]

This is a rather interesting fact comparing how cold N.A. has been lately:


https://www.facebook.com/worldeconomicforum/videos/10155032508346479/

[Niko]

Coldest place currently is Baudette, MN @ -26F....BRRRRRrrrrrrrr

[jaster220]

This is a rather interesting fact comparing how cold N.A. Has been lately:

 

 

https://www.facebook.com/worldeconomicforum/videos/10155032508346479/

 

What? No AGW insinuations in that??    Bundle up, had -11F again last night in Marshall..pumping gas this morning it had warmed to -2F and without much wind was only a little uncomfortable. 

[Tom]

First glimpse into the long range that fits the period where I'm expecting a storm system.  Remember the early Dec Blitz???  The current Bearing Sea monster???  I think it cycles through right around this period.

 

[Tony]

I want to comment on the extended but the models cannot even figure out the near term.

[hlcater]

UK is further south than the GFS.  But frankly I'm going to be too far south and too far east for this storm.  Iowa has been an SLP magnet these past two winters.  Any reasonably strong storm has tracked right through the state just about everytime.  

 

 

 

Eh a GFS model trend gif still doesn't lend to me punting yet. I still think that we are still in the range of possibility.

 

 

(sorry the site wouldn't let me upload a gif)

 

https://gfycat.com/MadWeeklyKawala

 

[Tom]

I want to comment on the extended but the models cannot even figure out the near term.

Lol, good point but I'm only focusing on the general idea and not fixed on storm track right now.  Data suggests a storm system during this period.  That's all I'm saying amigo.

[St Paul Storm]

Still -2F at noon with an expected high of 1F. Thankfully this should be the last day like this for a while. I need a break from the sting.