January 2018 Observations and Discussions

[hlcater]

I had a few flakes last Night but not expecting anything the rest of the month.

lol

[Niko]

Currently @ -3F.

[jaster220]

-6F, and I'm tired of the lasting cold. Lol, this stuff is one reason I moved out of the Northland. Supposed to be zero again Sat night! Amazing staying power, especially when the past 2 seasons you could hardly buy a below zero temp!

[bud2380]

GFS looks good for Nebraska

[Money]

GFS looks good for Nebraska

Looks SE of 12z which is a step forward I guess

[bud2380]

Looks really good for MSP

[CentralNebWeather]

00z GFS. Yes please.

[St Paul Storm]

0z looking good so far. Totals should be up from 18z for sure.

[bud2380]

Definitely a twin cities special this run.

[bud2380]

Canadian barely has a storm.

[Grizzcoat]

A tad further (00Z GFS)  SE with accumulating snowfall in IA. A step better for some of us. The 18Z had it but I don't trust 18Z and 6Z . Long ways to go but a step in the right direction for C.IA peeps.

[CentralNebWeather]

CMC, yuk. It says what storm?

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Gfs got stronger and slower and a tad more south. Cmc off its rocker still

[gimmesnow]

I'm starting to hear more chatter from various mets that the pull back coming around the 17th will be more transient as I suspected it will be.  Trends in the MJO support it. This season, we have not had any period in previous cycles where there was a ridge that locked, except for the W/SW regions.  Don't expect to see that going forward.

 

I am not a met but I feel the same way. Where I am at, they have been under-estimating how cold it will get at night. They keep saying a few degrees below 0, and I wake up and it's more like -10. The low was supposed to be -10 for me, and my phone is telling me it was -15 by 7pm. I feel like for the last few weeks, you've been able to take 5 to 10 degrees off of forecast temps and that's what we end up with.

 

I don't really have much optimism left because it's really starting to feel like another lousy winter, but I think there's a good chance this heat wave doesn't last very long and isn't as strong as the models say. But that's just guessing off of how they have been performing earlier this year.

[Money]

I dont see any warmups coming up on the gfs anytime soon

 

Looks more of the same

[Grizzcoat]

UK MET at HR 120 has low in Western KS/ Western NE. Further N then GFS that is for sure.

[hlcater]

I dont see any warmups coming up on the gfs anytime soon

 

Looks more of the same

 

Past few runs are painting a roller coaster pattern with a lot of cutters. 

[Minny_Weather]

I dont see any warmups coming up on the gfs anytime soon

 

Looks more of the same

I see a warm-up. A shorter one than initially believed, but a thaw will happen.

[hlcater]

I see a warm-up. A shorter one than initially believed, but a thaw will happen.

As I said in a previous post, I believe that there won't be one warm up, but several that are co-located with the warm sectors of cutters. We can see this theme on the past several GFS runs and a met on another forum had a long post explaining why this scenario was possible. Tom said several weeks ago that he was looking at the second half of the month for increased storminess, and at this time it appears that we will see that, but with these systems there will probably be warm intrusions for some(or all at times) as the systems cut towards the N Plains/Lakes. In the wake of each of these systems it should cool off(duh) for a few days before the next system and the cycle repeats. Definitely not a snow longevity pattern, but one that definitely appears more active at this range, and might deliver more moist systems than we've had so far.

[Money]

Gfs ensembles are South for next weeks system

[Minny_Weather]

Gfs ensembles are South for next weeks system

It's a good thing when the members that show it being North stick out like a sore thumb.

[gabel23]

EURO and GFS almost identical thru hr. 120. 

[Minny_Weather]

Euro's Ptype map and accumulation map don't even come close to matching up. I don't see how we can be in the defo band with surface temps well below freezing and cool ground temps and only get a half inch at the end.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Well if theres anything to be happy about with the EURO its a tad more east. But at the end it really starts to weaken. CMC hasn't been bad at all this winter and getting concerned its still showing nothing lol

[Minny_Weather]

Well if theres anything to be happy about with the EURO its a tad more east. But at the end it really starts to weaken. CMC hasn't been bad at all this winter and getting concerned its still showing nothing lol

CMC is still heavily inferior at the end of the day. It showed a trend towards a storm at 12z which means it may be opening its eyes despite the bad 00z run. All GEFS members are showing something. I haven't taken a look at EPS yet, but I'd assume most if not all of them are showing something too.

[St Paul Storm]

From MPX:

‘We`ve seen this story play out several times already

this year with models gradually backing away from phasing the

northern and southern streams resulting in an eventual track well

to the south. This one may be different though with Pacific air

as far north as southeastern Canada.’

 

Until they’re phased, they aren’t phasing.

[Tom]

As I said in a previous post, I believe that there won't be one warm up, but several that are co-located with the warm sectors of cutters. We can see this theme on the past several GFS runs and a met on another forum had a long post explaining why this scenario was possible. Tom said several weeks ago that he was looking at the second half of the month for increased storminess, and at this time it appears that we will see that, but with these systems there will probably be warm intrusions for some(or all at times) as the systems cut towards the N Plains/Lakes. In the wake of each of these systems it should cool off(duh) for a few days before the next system and the cycle repeats. Definitely not a snow longevity pattern, but one that definitely appears more active at this range, and might deliver more moist systems than we've had so far.

Well said...seems to me the Jan Thaw is on track, but to what extent???  As mentioned before, the original period to look for a relaxation from the frigid pattern was between the 17th-21st.   However, before that happens, the cross polar flow that has been advertised per GEFS strat forecasts for over a week for mid month is on track to deliver one last shot at real cold air.

 

I've seen the models trend in favor of more high lat blocking and also a +PNA pattern for the mid month period.  Over the last week, models were to quick in the extended pushing in the ridge at 500mb and if you were to use the LRC/BSR this makes sense for one last punch of arctic air.  Check out the last 10 runs per the GEFS showing the cross polar flow connection mid month.  Following this period, around the 17th, the jet begins to target the PAC NW when the EPO pops positive and the entire N.A. pattern shifts and allows the pattern to take a break.  SE ridge blossoms and a "cutter alley" takes place over our sub forum which I believe an active period of storms evolves.

[Tom]

Regarding next weeks storm potential, there are still many possibilities on the table.  I do think there will be a storm (or wave) that tracks up towards the GL's, but there is also a secondary piece that rides up the boundary that may effect the lower lakes region.  Both GEFS/EPS are hinting at it and both operational models are showing this potential.  On top of that, there is also a period for LES potential for SE WI/NE IL as the system tracks to the east and the placement of the HP sets up a N/NE flow down LM.  With that being said, those who do get rain on the front end may in fact get some backside accumulating snows.  

[St Paul Storm]

-11F now but already +1F in Fargo and Winnipeg. Here comes the much needed ‘heat’. Mid to upper 30s possible here early next week.

[westMJim]

There is a big temperature spread across the Grand Rapids metro area at this time the last reading at GRR was +3° BUT here at my house I now have a -10° at this time there is a bank of ice fog moving in here at my house.

[westMJim]

Here is a interesting bit from this mornings GRR ADF

"IT WOULDN’T ENTIRELY SURPRISE ME TO SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER EARLY
THURSDAY; ELEVATED LI/S FALL TO AROUND 0C OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA,
MUCAPE IS NON ZERO, AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE NEGATIVE.

THE IMPACT FROM THIS RAIN MAY BE LOCALIZED PONDING DUE TO SNOW
CLOGGED STORM DRAINS.”

[westMJim]

Climatology for today January 6^th   At Grand Rapids, MI

The average H/L is 31/19°

The record high is 57° set om 2008 the coldest maximum is 7 in 1912

The record low is -12° set in 1988 the warmest minimum is 42 set in 1998

The largest snow fall is 11.0” in 1917

The most on the ground is 18” in 1999

Last year the H/L was 14/2 there was 1” on snow on the ground.

[Minny_Weather]

13/20 GEFS members showing something significant for here.

 

[Minny_Weather]

I've been seeing more and more of a trend lately. More runs are showing a sharp cutoff right here. This is gonna be a repeat of Groundhog Day 2016, isn't it?

 

I'm not knowing where many of those runs are getting the sharp cutoff, however. Obviously some have us getting majority rain or the storm is just too far North, those are explainable. How can we get a half inch or near nothing if we're in the defo band and getting very heavy snow? something is screwy. Ground temps won't be an issue because of snow rate and it'll be cooled off from any rain that falls before. Ratios won't be high because it will be windy but that shouldn't make us only get a half inch. 

[Minny_Weather]

One of my (non-sarcastically) favorite mets at OAX is doing AFDs now. 

 

 

 

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 234 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

The main story for the long term is a potential winter storm in
the middle of the period as the low currently across the central
Pacific moves over the Conus. Models are in much better agreement
today increasing precip chances Wednesday into Thursday. Thermal
profiles suggest that rain chances Wednesday would be rain, but
end as snow Wednesday night and Thursday, along with blustery
northwest winds of 15 to 30 mph. The GFS is just slightly quicker
than the ECMWF, but synoptically are in very decent agreement for
this forecast package. There is some support from the Canadian as
well, but it`s certainly not as robust as the previous two
models. We`ll continue to watch this storm closely as both the GFS
and ECWMF do suggest a few inches of snow will be possible in our
forecast area. The usual caveat is given for this system, it`s
way to early to focus on the details as they will likely continue
to shift in the next few days. But the potential for winter storm
conditions appears to be increasing Wednesday night into Thursday
somewhere on the Plains, and possibly somewhere in our forecast
area. Sharply colder and below normal temperatures again for
Thursday into Friday.

 

[Niko]

Currently -2F w sunny skies.

[Money]

Gfs down to 984 mb in SE CO

 

Looks similar to 6z so far

[Money]

GEM still not playing ball (no storm at all really)

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Losing hope quickly for something significant here lol. The storm track is great but the freezing line doesnt respond with it.

[Minny_Weather]

Losing hope quickly for something significant here lol. The storm track is great but the freezing line doesnt respond with it.

Yeah and I wouldn't be surprised if it took longer than what GFS is showing to get to the freezing mark.