January Weather In the PNW

[TT-SEA]

I generally get about 4-5 hours a night, it is all I really need. Anything over 6 hours and I'm dragging the next day.

 

That is not good.   I used to be that way when I was younger... but gradually need more and more sleep now.     

 

Or maybe you are one of the rare "short-sleepers"...

 

https://blog.sleepnumber.com/can-4-hours-of-sleep-a-night-be-healthy/

[HighlandExperience]

Figured we were due for more wishcasting!

Um I’m not making that up. The 00z looked legitimately decent at the end of January. Better than the junk we have seen the past three weeks thank you.

[AlTahoe]

I just woke up to a temp of 44F here in Tahoe. Easily the warmest overnight low I have ever seen during winter and it isn't even raining. During our winter rain storms it would still be upper 30's. Mid 40's for a low is something that we would see in July or August.

[MossMan]

Well instead of feeling like early September mornings when I let the dogs out it now feels like late November this morning with a temp of 40. Winter is coming!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That is not good.   I used to be that way when I was younger... but gradually need more and more sleep now.     

 

Or maybe you are one of the rare "short-sleepers"...

 

https://blog.sleepnumber.com/can-4-hours-of-sleep-a-night-be-healthy/

 

Even as a teenager I did not sleep in. Also I gave up alcohol use about 7 months ago...I have found I get much better quality sleep and need less since then.

[crf450ish]

Even as a teenager I did not sleep in. Also I gave up alcohol use about 7 months ago...I have found I get much better quality sleep and need less since then.

Congrats on that. Alcohol is just bad for your body all around. Sure, it’s fun and great for social situations, but what it does to ones body and mind isn’t good at all. I have also gave up beer (never liked hard A),as the gluten in it messes with me, and found much better cognitive function. Not that I had much to begin with but I won’t get into that.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Had some very loud thunder lastnight about 3 times. I dont think i have ever seen thunder here and January.

[Timmy Supercell]

More light showers coming through here. Seems like a constant stream from the SW which may last another few hours.

 

Had this been the beginning of the week, this all would have been forecast as snow at this elevation.

[Timmy Supercell]

Had some very loud thunder lastnight about 3 times. I dont think i have ever seen thunder here and January.

 

Even in the west sides I imagine it is pretty rare for January thunderstorms as well, aside from the coastal areas of course which get more of them in winter.

 

Here in K-Falls I only saw 1 January thunderstorm, 01/19/2016. That was the first one since the 1980's at least. Strangely enough the one I had was a severe squall with a G67 reported at KLMT, and small hail. The ground still had a little snow on grassy areas. 

[Phil]

That is not good. I used to be that way when I was younger... but gradually need more and more sleep now.

 

Or maybe you are one of the rare "short-sleepers"...

 

https://blog.sleepnumber.com/can-4-hours-of-sleep-a-night-be-healthy/

I don’t sleep much either. Also average about 4-5hrs per night during the week, with work/school together precluding any chance I’d have getting more than 7hrs.

[Phil]

Today marks the beginning of a protracted, multi-week thaw east of the Rockies. Talk about a midwinter classic.

 

Hoping it lasts at least three weeks. Should last at least through the first 10 days of February.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Even in the west sides I imagine it is pretty rare for January thunderstorms as well, aside from the coastal areas of course which get more of them in winter.

 

Here in K-Falls I only saw 1 January thunderstorm, 01/19/2016. That was the first one since the 1980's at least. Strangely enough the one I had was a severe squall with a G67 reported at KLMT, and small hail. The ground still had a little snow on grassy areas. 

It was very powerful and it actually startled me a bit. It was so close that the flash woke me up before the rumble.

[Phil]

Well, we have phase 4 (Indo-Maritime) MJO now, and not much to show for it (so far). Forcing will propagate towards the warm pool by the end of week 2, which usually isn’t a good thing for the PNW, however it’s also the ideal MJO phase to produce a SSW event and last-minute Alaskan wavebreak before restarting the +PNA.

 

So early February still holds the greatest potential of the winter, even though it will be transient.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif

[TT-SEA]

I don’t sleep much either. Also average about 4-5hrs per night during the week, with work/school together precluding any chance I’d have getting more than 7hrs.

 

Do you wish you got more sleep or are you done sleeping in 4-5 hours and feel ready to go and cannot sleep any longer?

 

I guess there is a rare gene mutation that allows some people to only require 4-5 hours of sleep and they are energetic... but everyone else is just running the tank on empty and its dangerous for your health in the long run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That mid-week system is still looking good...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Do you wish you got more sleep or are you done sleeping in 4-5 hours and feel ready to go and cannot sleep any longer?

 

I guess there is a rare gene mutation that allows some people to only require 4-5 hours of sleep and they are energetic... but everyone else is just running the tank on empty and its dangerous for your health in the long run.

 

I am fine with it, from a sleep perspective. I do end up forcing myself to stay in bed sometimes because I don't want to wake my fiance up. So in some sense I wish I could sleep more because I end up waking her up super early a lot of times. But I feel fine. 

[Phil]

Do you wish you got more sleep or are you done sleeping in 4-5 hours and feel ready to go and cannot sleep any longer?

 

I guess there is a rare gene mutation that allows some people to only require 4-5 hours of sleep and they are energetic... but everyone else is just running the tank on empty and its dangerous for your health in the long run.

My body usually “prefers” a solid 6hrs, but I can get by just fine with 4-5hrs, or even less if necessary. I can’t stay asleep fore more than 7hrs, though. I wake up naturally and full of energy after 6hrs, usually.

[Phil]

The exception is during the summer months when I’m working outdoors for 10-12hrs per day in 90+ degree heat and pounding sunshine. I can sometimes sleep for 7hrs+ after days like that.

[Jesse]

12z GFS a bit sharper with the trough on Thursday. Shows some light snow showers around Western WA.

What’s its sleep number?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Phrase of the day: Maritime Polar.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Very cold trough next wekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very cold trough next wekend.

 

GEM has the cold trough, its just not as quick, though the GFS has a better SE ridge (GEM has none). 

[Jesse]

Phrase of the day: Maritime Polar.

Location of the day: My Location.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Location of the day: My Location.

 

ORCHARDS?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Location of the day: My Location.

 

My location would do well if this verified...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS is way faster with that trough...Interesting. 

[TT-SEA]

Sunny morning here... some snow on the very top of the ridge.

[Phil]

Location of the day: My Location.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS is fine. Some snow at "my location," some low snow levels in general. Cold onshore flow/La Nina look. Nothing to exciting overall though.

[ShawniganLake]

Lots of uncertainty and variability in each model from run to run. 0z Euro had 10-15” of snow for Shawnigan Lake in the next 7 days. 12z GFS has maybe a trace. Pretty impressive looking AR later next week though

[Phil]

Thought experiment. Low frequency (multi-year) regime changes in the NH are always triggered during boreal winter, when the tropical/extratropical connection is strongest.

 

We haven’t observed a true SSW event since January 2013, five years ago. Since 2013, we’ve continued the same boreal summer warm pool forcing regime, and we’re starting out with an even bigger/more NE-shifted warm pool this year vs last year at this time.

 

Is this a coincidence? Or do the lack of SSW events since 2013, and the consistently NE-expanded warm pool summers since then, tie together somehow?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Warm February?

 

[Phil]

Warm February?

 

I’m now calling for a nationwide icebox.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m now calling for a nationwide icebox.

 

February 2011 was great up here. I would go for a repeat.

[HighlandExperience]

Warm February?

 

Good sign since that has been dead wrong all winter

[Phil]

Good sign since that has been dead wrong all winter

The CFS has been completely a** backwards since November. Literally, the pattern has done the exact opposite of what the CFS has forecasted. I’ve never seen anything quite like it.

[TT-SEA]

The Sunday system has looked very robust on the ECMWF and GFS operational runs... but the details are now in range of the 4km WRF and its shows lots of sun breaks that day as well.   I was not expecting to see that.  

 

[Jesse]

Thought experiment. Low frequency (multi-year) regime changes in the NH are always triggered during boreal winter, when the tropical/extratropical connection is strongest.

 

We haven’t observed a true SSW event since January 2013, five years ago. Since 2013, we’ve continued the same boreal summer warm pool forcing regime, and we’re starting out with an even bigger/more NE-shifted warm pool this year vs last year at this time.

 

Is this a coincidence? Or do the lack of SSW events since 2013, and the consistently NE-expanded warm pool summers since then, tie together somehow?

The IPCC might be able to help you out with this one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles are pretty meh...

[TT-SEA]

A little snow on the ridge this morning... have not seen that too often lately.   Its getting colder!