Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Weird year. Obviously when the sharpest mind on the forum busts this badly for the coldest month of the cold season you know something is SERIOUSLY f*cked up. Which one? There were only about 5 of us predicting a cold January. Of course, only one went all in with a 3 week Arctic outbreak... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Going to make a call, simply based on the strength of this MJO wave (which is looking like a top-10 event in W1 amplitude). 1) EP fluxes will respond and initiate a late season PV breakdown. 2) It will trigger a second downwelling OKW response, which will pull the Pacific/ONI out of La Niña conditions by April or May. The -QBO will prevent a transition into El Niño, so the end result is a stalemate. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 You only have to wait 1 more year for that. January 25th 2019. I was there. Tim was in hawaii. Are you hinting you've done some work on a DeLorean? 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 This coming from the guy who has preached "PAY ATTENTION to the GEM when it's the first to show something!" Yes... that is why I just left it open (who knows?) It is possible. Usually those GEM wins come with surprises in the mid range. But never say never... it can happen. You know its best to approach the GEM with caution.... particularly in the 8-10 day period. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 You're a big boy, you can determine what you want and don't want.Thank you,.. I feel so much better now! I thought I was to agree with others who disagreed with me so I did not upset the balance of harmony within our tight nit community. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 This coming from the guy who has preached "PAY ATTENTION to the GEM when it's the first to show something!"You are right. tt has said that many times. I quote “the gem catches on to patterns frequently” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 You cherry pick. Its BS. You are pretty much the only person on this board launching genuine personal attacks on a daily basis.Sounds like you're getting a little upset? I'm just looking out for you because I'm worried. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Sounds like you're getting a little upset? I'm just looking out for you because I'm worried.You are becoming a very kind a gentl soul! I am glad to see the medication and therapy is working! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Yes... that is why I just left it open (who knows?) It is possible. Usually those GEM wins come with surprises in the mid range. But never say never... it can happen. You know its best to approach the GEM with caution.... particularly in the 8-10 day period. Well, in this case the GEM starts showing some big differences around day 6 that play out from there. I believe the GEM is pretty close to the GFS for overall (in)accuracy scores? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Which one? There were only about 5 of us predicting a cold January. Of course, only one went all in with a 3 week Arctic outbreak...No one can compare to you with the crop of analogs you've grown in your basement. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Sounds like you're getting a little upset? I'm just looking out for you because I'm worried. Not upset at all. I love how you cherry picked one sentence of my post. No acknowledgement that I do indeed post cold maps and snowfall maps that show lowland snow. That messes up your narrative of course. In order for your BS narrative to work... you have to be very selective. Again... you are the only member on this board launching personal attacks on a daily basis. That is pretty much all you do on here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Ensembles are not bad. #rubberstamp Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I'd have to look closer again, but I don't think there have been hardly any winters with this much -EPO and so little meaningful cold in the PNW. Obviously, the lack of -PNA has been the big killer, but it's still very unusual to have the amount of Alaskan blocking we've seen without that. 2000-01! 1960-61! 1980-81! The 0-1 dream team! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Not upset at all. I love how you cherry picked one sentence of my post. No acknowledgement that I do indeed post cold maps and snowfall maps that show lowland snow. That messes up your narrative of course. In order for your BS narrative to work... you have to be very selective. Again... you are the only member on this board launching personal attacks on a daily basis. That is pretty much all you do on here.Used to be a decent mind around here. Sad. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Well, in this case the GEM starts showing some big differences around day 6 that play out from there. I believe the GEM is pretty close to the GFS for overall (in)accuracy scores? True... once it goes off on that track then its going to continue in a totally different direction for the rest of the run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 In order for your BS narrative to work... you have to be very selective. Again... you are the only member on this board launching personal attacks on a daily basis. That is pretty much all you do on here.We've actually had a pretty good relationship lately. I worry about you though, I don't want you to go through any more break downs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Used to be a decent mind around here. Sad.No one actually cared about the content I used to post. Most of the time it was burried by BS anyways. Was just a waste of time it seemed like 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 No one actually cared about the content I used to post. Most of the time it was burried by BS anyways. Was just a waste of time it seemed likeIronic post. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Ensembles are not bad. #rubberstamp Some might even say relatively decent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Some might even say relatively decent 00zalright.pngKeeps a glancing blow on the table. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Some might even say relatively decent 00zalright.png+PNA! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 We've actually had a pretty good relationship lately. I worry about you though, I don't want you to go through any more break downs. So weak. You are not even trying. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Ironic post.Sure, but if you haven't noticed, quality posts generally don't get any appreciation here 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 #2013ing Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 So weak. You are not even trying.I don't have to, you do the work for me. I appreciate it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I don't have to, you do the work for me. I appreciate it. Another weak post. One note tune. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Sure, but if you haven't noticed, quality posts generally don't get any appreciation hereHmmm. Does Fred have your current address? I get a five dollar gift card to Hot Topic for every quality post I make. I'm up to six. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I miss the quick-finishing ECMWF. I want the answer now! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 The GFS ensemble continues its slow improvement. A good number of members go below -10 on this run. If the cold solution wins it will probably be more than a glancing blow because most of the cold solutions are really cold and the mean is watered down by some really warm members. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 This is +3 sigma MJO now. And it’s activating the philosophical lobe of my brain tonight. We’ve been in a +PNA background state all winter. This MJO will now trigger a second OKW that will slosh the Pacific out of La Niña this Spring. It’s like Mother Nature had a game plan this entire time, pre-programmed into the circulation. The deeper you look at it, the more fascinating it becomes. The extratropics really do lead the tropics sometimes. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I miss the quick-finishing ECMWF. I want the answer now!Hope it still shows snow over east side Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Sure, but if you haven't noticed, quality posts generally don't get any appreciation hereI agree. The fact there aren’t any meteorologists posting here is a testament to this. They’d get trolled off the forum the minute they make a warm forecast. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 This is +3 sigma MJO now. And it’s activating the philosophical lobe of my brain tonight. We’ve been in a +PNA background state all winter. This MJO will now trigger a second OKW that will slosh the Pacific out of La Niña this Spring. It’s like Mother Nature had a game plan this entire time, pre-programmed into the circulation. The deeper you look at it, the more fascinating it becomes. The extratropics really do lead the tropics sometimes.Yup. ##7isonitsway#thanksfred 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 I agree. The fact there aren’t any meteorologists posting here is a testament to this. They’d get trolled off the forum the minute they make a warm forecast. Someone here tried to troll Mark Nelsen off his own blog for being a warm-biased fool. For the record... your posts are the highlight of the forum for me. Even if you are not always right.. you are always interesting and I try to learn from you. And you don't have a horse in the PNW weather race so are not bogged down with our model riding drama. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 No one can compare to you with the crop of analogs you've grown in your basement. At least 1989-90 remains unblemished. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 2000-01! 1960-61! 1980-81! The 0-1 dream team! I'd have to check on the others, but this winter has 2000-01 handily beat for -EPO. Especially with what looks like another period upcoming. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 This is +3 sigma MJO now. And it’s activating the philosophical lobe of my brain tonight. We’ve been in a +PNA background state all winter. This MJO will now trigger a second OKW that will slosh the Pacific out of La Niña this Spring. It’s like Mother Nature had a game plan this entire time, pre-programmed into the circulation. The deeper you look at it, the more fascinating it becomes. The extratropics really do lead the tropics sometimes. Exactly. The PDO drives everything. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Good golly.. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 25, 2018 Report Share Posted January 25, 2018 Exactly. The PDO drives everything.It’s the missing link! Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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