January Weather In the PNW

[Jesse]

curious though, although it makes sense with the nature of the beast we are looking at, the graphed may look better because the GEFS is just the mean, right?

The white line is the mean then all of the colorful “spaghetti” are individual ensemble members.

 

I guess they aren’t terrible. Seemed worse than the 06z but there are still a good number of cold members. There are more warm members in the LR too, though, which pulls the mean up a bit.

[Jesse]

It would be pretty awesome to see something major in the next few weeks. A lot of the players are there or have the potential to be.

 

Too bad this isn’t the inverse of some of those heatwaves last summer where you just knew the extreme ensemble members were gonna come out on top.

[Timmy]

The white line is the mean then all of the colorful “spaghetti” are individual ensemble members.

 

I get that but the GEFS maps on tidbits is displaying a mean for all the members on its maps if I am not mistaken, so its hard to tell much other than if the block/ridge placement if things are much worse or better.  Thats why the graph helps more to see potential I guess, or severity of individual members.

[Jesse]

I get that but the GEFS maps on tidbits is displaying a mean for all the members on its maps if I am not mistaken, so its hard to tell much other than if the block/ridge placement if things are much worse or better. Thats why the graph helps more to see potential I guess, or severity of individual members.

Ah, I see what you were saying. That’s definitely true.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Starting to snow here in port orchard and 36 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

Comparing the 12Z ECMWF to the 12Z run yesterday...

 

Stronger with ridge on Sunday into Monday.    Should be around 60 or in the low 60s from Kelso southward that day.   It shows 59 at PDX.

 

Deeper with the trough on Tuesday morning.   

 

More amplification seems to be the theme through 120 hours.   That might be an indication of good things to come!  

[TT-SEA]

Starting to snow here in port orchard and 36 degrees.

 

I can see the outline of the sun through the clouds here... just a few sprinkles.

 

Up to 39 now.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tim you are going to get snow today. Hard to imagine it not. 

[FroYoBro]

I can see the outline of the sun through the clouds here... just a few sprinkles.

 

Up to 39 now.

Do you work from home?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Do you work from home?

He is a computer programmer for the warm bias of the ecmwf.

[TT-SEA]

Tim you are going to get snow today. Hard to imagine it not.

No way.

 

Its not even close. There will not even be precipitation this afternoon.

 

Hood Canal is very different in this situation.

 

The main precip is coming through now and its basically dry here. I see a little snow falling on Mt Si right now but otherwise its dry out here.

 

[TT-SEA]

Do you work from home?

 

Most of the time.   Depends on the situation.  

[Timmy]

would be interested to see euro precipitation type at hr 144

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was dumping snow when I left for the airport.

[Timmy]

day 7 euro is sexy

[Kayla]

Cold air is already quite a bit further south and west compared to the 00z ECMWF.

[Kayla]

Always nice to see the timing move up.

[ShawniganLake]

would be interested to see euro precipitation type at hr 144

[TT-SEA]

day 7 euro is sexy

 

Way better than the 12Z run yesterday!  

[TT-SEA]

Up to 40 here now... 41 in North Bend.  

[Timmy]

wow day 8 goes bad fast!

[TT-SEA]

SEA went from 41 to 39 with light rain in the last hour.  

 

Precip is heavier towards the Olympics.

[TT-SEA]

wow day 8 goes bad fast!

 

Still hope for day 9 and 10 though.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think the better dynamics with this trough were further south this morning. Sticking snow was down to about 1200’ and even down at about 500’ it was a solid mix with temps in the mid 30s.

[TT-SEA]

I think the better dynamics with this trough were further south this morning. Sticking snow was down to about 1200’ and even down at about 500’ it was a solid mix with temps in the mid 30s.

 

Models have been showing that for several days now in regard to the system today.   The cold air actually rotated in from the southwest.  

[Timmy]

day 9 euro not on board, there is a stiff 850 mb gradient N-S.  so it wouldn't take much.

[TT-SEA]

day 9 euro not on board, there is a stiff 850 mb gradient N-S.  so it wouldn't take much.

 

So close!  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So close!

 

Could be worse!

[TT-SEA]

And day 10 get us there again!     Well... almost.

 

 

[BLI snowman]

Just not quite amplified enough. Placement is great.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

About to get real at day ten.

[van city]

And day 10 get us there again!     Well... almost.

 

 

All credit goes to Phil.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot of potential. I would love to see the GFS come around a bit more.

[TT-SEA]

Although the 12Z ECMWF is a step back from the 00Z run.  

 

Here was the temperatures at 4 p.m. on 2/3 per the 00Z run:

 

 

And now the same time on the 12Z run:

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Day ten looks like a classic snow event on the way followed by the arctic front. Probably be a rain to snow situation.

[ShawniganLake]

Day ten looks like a classic snow event on the way followed by the arctic front. Probably be a rain to snow situation.

Been awhile since we’ve seen one of those.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Been awhile since we’ve seen one of those.

December 1990 was that way. Not kidding it went from rain and 38 degrees to a raging blizzard and 20 degrees in a hr at most.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You are so desperately used to searching for negative information that you are comparing surface temps at 240 hours when the overall pattern looks pretty close to great.

 

Sometimes I think you do it subconsciously.   

 

It is science. Not negative or positive. That is what is shown.

[TT-SEA]

You are so desperately used to searching for negative information that you are comparing surface temps at 240 hours when the overall pattern looks pretty close to great.

 

Sometimes I think you do it subconsciously.   

 

OMG.  Seriously?

 

I have been posting enthusiastically all morning.

 

I wanted a way to compare the awesome 00Z run with the new 12Z run since the Tropical Tidbits does not allow that comparison.   Many positive and happy posts... and one post that was a little less super happy and now I am ridiculed again? 

 

Good Lord.    Keep it to yourself and stop the personal attacks.  

[TT-SEA]

It is science. Not negative or positive. That is what is shown.

 

Thank you.