Minny_Weather Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I'm thinking OAX is gonna issue the new products to replace the watch during tomorrow morning's package. Sitting on the edge of my chair till then. They're normally not afraid to issue warnings when things are borderline. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Give me my 4-6” from the 3km and let me cash in my chips. Enough is enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Lol at the back and forth between modelsHow much do you have on the season? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I'm thinking OAX is gonna issue the new products to replace the watch during tomorrow morning's package. Sitting on the edge of my chair till then. They're normally not afraid to issue warnings when things are borderline. Cant say I’ve ever seen the EURO and NAM agree on such a narrow band like this. Man that’s a nice map! Get ready to make that snow p3nis in snow lovers yard if that comes true! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I think the NAM is counting sleet in the forecasted precip type in with snow accumulations so it is jacking things up on the amounts for some areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I think the NAM is counting sleet in the forecasted precip type in with snow accumulations so it is jacking things up on the amounts for some areas.Depends on the map you’re using. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Depends on the map you’re using.Kuchera can do a shotty job with warm midlevels as well. Havent looked close enough to see if it is in this case or not. Not worth it now anyways to far away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I think the NAM is counting sleet in the forecasted precip type in with snow accumulations so it is jacking things up on the amounts for some areas.It's showing about 9" here, I'll gladly take 7" if that's the case. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Here's the new NWS forecasted snow amounts. This thing has changed like a 100 times!! If this holds serve I would gladly take 3-4" for my area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Crazy narrow band of 4-6". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Kuchera can do a shotty job with warm midlevels as well. Havent looked close enough to see if it is in this case or not. Not worth it now anyways to far away.No doubt. Kuchera has its flaws, but it’s better than 10:1,especially with this event and temps dropping like a friggin rock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Kuchera can do a shotty job with warm midlevels as well. Havent looked close enough to see if it is in this case or not. Not worth it now anyways to far away. Here's a "sleet sounding" according to ptype map from weather.cod.edu. seems pretty marginal, would almost bet on snow with this sounding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Here's the new NWS forecasted snow amounts. This thing has changed like a 100 times!! If this holds serve I would gladly take 3-4" for my area. Isn't it kind of crazy, how we're almost begging/excited for 3-4" of snow? Goes to show how crappy things have been for so long. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Stormgeek losing his mind right now.This could not be more accurate! At least things are staying exciting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 OAX continuing the WS Watch for 2-5" of snow. Watch end time has been extended until 6p on Thursday now as well. Starts at 6p Wednesday, which I have NO idea how they came up with that time. It's not going to be snowing here until after 3a Thursday morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 OAX continuing the WS Watch for 2-5" of snow. Watch end time has been extended until 6p on Thursday now as well. Starts at 6p Wednesday, which I have NO idea how they came up with that time. It's not going to be snowing here until after 3a Thursday morning.I'd start it at midnight. Flash freezing will be an issue. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 MPX going a general 2-4” with localized amounts up to 7”. Minor ice accretion as well with gusts to 30 mph. Let’s do it. I’ve been tracking this thing way too long Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 NWS Hastings has went with a Winter Weather Advisory. They are saying 1-3 inches. Who the heck knows what will happen. They say 9 PM Wednesday until Noon on Thursday. Hope it is more but beggars can't be choosers at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 NWS Hastings has went with a Winter Weather Advisory. They are saying 1-3 inches. Who the heck knows what will happen. They say 9 PM Wednesday until Noon on Thursday. Hope it is more but beggars can't be choosers at this point. Far Eastern Counties, including mine, is still in the WSW. I could see either all of use going into a WWA or possibly some areas going into a warning. Time will tell, just give us 2-4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 I think this ends up being 3-4" here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 18Z GFS is way too light on the snow (or sleet) right after the changeover. Not to mention 18Z GFS runs have been bad for us all this process. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Screw the NWS. I don't care what they say-- they did this same thing last year, when they predicted 1-3" for some parts of Western Nebraska who ended up getting 17". This is also reminiscent of the storm in March of 2007-- heavy snow was going to miss us, so 1-3" prediction, woke up to 18". I think someone gets leveled and they're going to fall flat on their face. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 18z way south/east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 18z now has the heavy snow band outside of the WSW area...LOL Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 18Z GFS furthest southeast yet. Actually has Omaha and Lincoln on the very western edge of the heavier band now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 18z GFS says gosaints in da money. Reel it in man. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 all in on that run! Braaaap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 18z now has the heavy snow band outside of the WSW area...LOLThe WSW area makes absolutely no sense. I guess it does if you remember the fact that OAX has always had a hard-on for Northeast NE. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Just one interpretation, but at least y'all are going to see synoptic snowfall. Looks like I'll get rain followed by a possible flizzard 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 RGEM sucks but it looks super juicy, some parts of NC KS get 22". This is going to be a hell of a snowstorm for someone, I can feel it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 RGEM sucks but it looks super juicy, some parts of NC KS get 22". This is going to be a hell of a snowstorm for someone, I can feel it.Yeah RGEM has been having a Kansas boner so far. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 OAX still hasn't released their AFD. Maybe they actually looked at 12Z models like they usually don't before the afternoon forecast. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 OAX still hasn't released their AFD. Maybe they actually looked at 12Z models like they usually don't before the afternoon forecast. If they were honest, they'd start the discussion with "sorry, just got done cleaning out my pants that I just pooped after seeing the NAM/GFS vs. our predictions" but it will probably be something about how Norfolk is actually the jackpot and how heavy accumulations of 4-6" are possible there and 1-3" along and north of I-80 but less expected from a line of Lincoln to Hastings stay tuned lulz type of garbage they usually spew. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 If they were honest, they'd start the discussion with "sorry, just got done cleaning out my pants that I just pooped after seeing the NAM/GFS vs. our predictions" but it will probably be something about how Norfolk is actually the jackpot and how heavy accumulations of 4-6" are possible there and 1-3" along and north of I-80 but less expected from a line of Lincoln to Hastings stay tuned lulz type of garbage they usually spew."Think highest amounts will be around 2", however recent guidance suggests lowering totals so will cancel the watch and just not issue a headline lol" 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 "Think highest amounts will be around 2", however recent guidance suggests lowering totals so will cancel the watch and just not issue a headline lol" AFD Long-Term Discussion: [ERROR 404: THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE ANYTHING HERE!] 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Dmx expands WSW few counties E. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 hey another 100 miles east shift and I'm in the game. LOL. That was a dramatic shift easy by the GFS this late in the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 1 cty away here from WSW. My luck is that it misses to the East.... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Looks like the 18z GEM came further east too. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_18/pan_P2_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 9, 2018 Report Share Posted January 9, 2018 Lol... Okay now let's not go too East. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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