February 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

12z GFS indicating yet another system Day 7-8 that is on the table which fits the LRC's Christmas Eve surprise snow event.  Keep 'em coming!

[NEJeremy]

a surprise weenie band moving though right now. Fat flakes coming down pretty good and has already put down a bit of a coating. too bad it's only going to last about 20-30 minutes

[Niko]

Its brutal out there....@ 15F currently w cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. A flake here and there.

[jaster220]

Woke up late today (have slight sore throat and cough) looked out the window and see what I at first thought was frost but no wait it is yes snow. That is right a very frost like amount of snow fall here on the roofs and top of the cars. Temperature here is now 15° I had a low here at my house of 8° and that is cold for no snow on the ground.

 

Had an under-the-radar surprise half inch in Marshall early this morning. I walked into the gas station to pre-pay my gas and there were 2 peeps ahead of me, but maybe 5 min's and my windsheild was completely covered! It was short-lived but intense little burst off the lake. Early morning is always Marshall's best time for LES

[Minny_Weather]

a surprise weenie band moving though right now. Fat flakes coming down pretty good and has already put down a bit of a coating. too bad it's only going to last about 20-30 minutes

What the ****?! It's been 100% sunny here all day so far! The last thing I was expecting was to read a post like this.

[CentralNebWeather]

Looked at the GFS, ICON, and CMC for the next week or more.  GFS is totally different than ICON and CMC.  Massive differences in amounts.  I can see how hard it is to make forecasts when there is such disparity.  Example  for me- GFS - 2", CMC - 7", ICON - 13".  

[Niko]

Looked at the GFS, ICON, and CMC for the next week or more.  GFS is totally different than ICON and CMC.  Massive differences in amounts.  I can see how hard it is to make forecasts when there is such disparity.  Example  for me- GFS - 2", CMC - 7", ICON - 13".  

It can drive ya nuts.

[jaster220]

For the most part, I think GRR's WWA for this late-season LES event was weak sauce. Spotty coverage, and even the better targets only got 1-3 across the 94 corridor. Such as here at work in St. Joseph where I'm eyeballing 1.5-2"  Lack of moisture and a good trigger mechanism ftl

[CentralNebWeather]

It can drive ya nuts.

I'm with you. 

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro is much weaker than the GFS with the late-next-week energy, but still has a decent clipper.

[Hawkeye]

9-day Euro snowfall

 

[NEJeremy]

What the ****?! It's been 100% sunny here all day so far! The last thing I was expecting was to read a post like this.

Yeah I wasn’t expecting anything either. Was down in my basement and checked the forecast and it had changed from nothing for today to 70% chance of snow between 11-1(even though the band was through here by 1045). We’ve been sunny since

[hlcater]

Nice band of snow blossoming around DMX and is a few counties wide. Probably gonna get a quick DAB, but it's more than I expected today, so there's that.

[Tom]

I have used the GEFS strat forecasts all season long as a source for longer range "predictors". Over the last couple days, we have seen the models flash blow torches in the extended and pretty remarkable swings in the model ensembles 500mb forecasts for Week 1-2. It is my opinion, the major SSW event is a big culprit. With that being said, take a look at this beautiful "textbook" Polar Vortex Split that will happen beginning late next week. I'm a big believer in the LRC and the "Ferocious February Open" is no longer an idea, but seemingly trending towards a conceptual forecast. I know it was a bold forecast when first proclaimed, but as I saw other mets jumping on board and local NWS offices agreeing towards an active pattern, I feel this coming week will be the beginning of something special. Good luck to those who score some hits.

 

FWIW, today's 12z EPS is coming back to reality off it's blow torch Week 1-2 run yesterday.

[Tom]

Besides the next big ticket system (Feb 5th-7th), there is another system which is on my calendar for the following weekend.  Depending on how much the energy diving into the Rockies can dig and phase, this one could be another big storm.  At this range, there is ensemble support for this potential system despite the model run to run variances among the various modeling.

[Money]

Wave after wave showing up on the 18z gfs

 

Pretty crazy

[CentralNebWeather]

18z GFS is party time for the forum. Who’s bringing the beer?

[Minny_Weather]

18z GFS is party time for the forum. Who’s bringing the beer?

No, we can't have a party until the Omadome is penetrated.

[Niko]

Its a bitterly cold evening out there. Temps going down to 4F. Currently @ 13F.

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS still promising for late next week, trying to dig some good energy into the west that spits waves across the midwest.  I'd like to see the euro become more robust with this energy.

[Tom]

00z GFS still promising for late next week, trying to dig some good energy into the west that spits waves across the midwest.  I'd like to see the euro become more robust with this energy.

The model has been cutting off the energy in the SW which has happened many times this season at this range only to correct and eject out as we get towards the medium range.  This system has good potential should it continue to show up.

[Tabitha]

I think it is going to snow here tomorrow.  That will be quite nice.

[Hawkeye]

FWIW, the 00z ICON is very similar to the GFS late in the week.

[Tony]

All models continue to look active so it's going to be a fun couple weeks coming up. About time

[Money]

Ukie looks similar

 

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

[Minny_Weather]

GFS is meh in the longer term for us. Typically we only get something appreciate if it shows 30" for us thru 10 days. It only shows 5" now.

 

Thankfully this Winter, Euro has been the winner for snow. We've gotten snow when it had said we would, and we haven't when it said we wouldn't. It's looking pretty good for us out 10 days.

 

It'd be great if we didn't nickel and dime our way through another Winter though.

[Hawkeye]

Euro is now stronger with the late week energy, digging into the Rockies like the other models.  The stronger energy is causing the lead wave to lift farther north, into MN.  It's a long way out, though.

[Grizzcoat]

Still very active in the longer range according to the 00z Euro for many.... *** edit *** check that -- it was the GFS I was looking at.

[Niko]

Euro is now stronger with the late week energy, digging into the Rockies like the other models.  The stronger energy is causing the lead wave to lift farther north, into MN.  It's a long way out, though.

Euro cannot be trusted this Winter.

[Niko]

Currently @ 18F w mostly cloudy skies.

[westMJim]

Climatology for today February 3^rd At Grand Rapids, MI

 

The average H/L is still 31/18

The record high is 54° in 1991 the coldest maximum is 3 in 1996

The record low is -17° in 1996 the warmest minimum is 34 in 2006

The largest snow fall is 11.3” in 2007

The most snow on the ground is 19” in 2011

Last year the high was 20 the low was 9 a trace of snow fell and 4” covered the ground’

[Minny_Weather]

Euro cannot be trusted this Winter.

I think it can. If either model can't be trusted past a few days, it's the GFS. Yeah Euro hasn't done great

[Niko]

I think it can. If either model can't be trusted past a few days, it's the GFS. Yeah Euro hasn't done great

I hope you are right. Hopefully, we can get this storm further north and get into the heavier snows, otherwise, it will be a miss. I was surprised the Euro went along w the GFS. I could've sworn it would have been the other way around.

[Money]

Gfs crushes MN into WI with the Feb 9th-10th wave

 

6-10+

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php?run=2018020312&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=153

[NEJeremy]

I think it is going to snow here tomorrow.  That will be quite nice.

I see a winter storm warning for the northern Hills. It looks pretty good for you!

[Hawkeye]

There's no cold surge behind the midweek southern system, so the late-week energy is easily able to pull the baroclinic zone north and keep the snow way up in MN/WI.

[St Paul Storm]

Starting to wonder if the system late next week might be legit.

[Money]

How does the euro look for next weeks storm?

[hlcater]

Gotta feeling that the late week system is an MN/WI special for the reasons mentioned above.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro looks like the 12z UK.... a Minneapolis to Green Bay special.

 

This multi-wave snowy pattern is turning into a one-wave pattern for my area.  The weekend system crapped out for us, lifting northeast, the midweek southern system is crapping out, and now the late-week system is going north.  The Monday system is pretty much it now.  For much of Nebraska, it's now a total bust pattern.