February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

 

Interesting little tidbit.

 

 

That stat is not just a little misleading, it's wrong.

 

SEA definitely had 1"+ snowfalls after V-day in 2011, two in 2009, at least one in 2002 (but they weren't recorded), 1994, and 1993. There was also a .9" snowfall in March 2012.

 

So there have for sure been 6 in the last 25 years (2018 doesn't count as the past), possibly 7 if there were two in 2002, and very nearly another including 2012. And there have been 4, almost 5, just in the past 16 years.

[BLI snowman]

For the love of GOD

 

 

 

1951!

[TT-SEA]

1951!

 

I would love to follow 1951 for the rest of 2018!

 

It turned gorgeous here after the snow in March and continued all the way through fall.    April was stunning that year... one of the best ever here.  

[BLI snowman]

That stat is not just a little misleading, it's wrong.

 

SEA definitely had 1"+ snowfalls after V-day in 2011, two in 2009, at least one in 2002 (but they weren't recorded), 1994, and 1993. There was also a .9" snowfall in March 2012.

 

So there have for sure been 6 in the last 25 years (2018 doesn't count as the past), possibly 7 if there were two in 2002, and very nearly another including 2012. And there have been 4, almost 5, just in the past 16 years.

 

The snowstorm in 2001 was also after Valentine's Day.

[BLI snowman]

I would love to follow 1951 for the rest of 2018!

 

It turned gorgeous here after the snow in March and continued all the way through fall.    April was stunning that year... one of the best ever here.  

 

April 1951 also had a freaky late arctic airmass around the 20th. That was an interesting stretch.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You would think by what the gfs is showing that the wrf would look much better than it does. Maybe this a good thing. Would like to hear jaya's take on that.

[Front Ranger]

The snowstorm in 2001 was also after Valentine's Day.

 

Ah, you're right. I was thinking that one was the 8th, but that was a smaller snowfall. The 4-8" storm was the 15th-16th.

 

So there have actually been 7 for sure in the past 25 years, maybe 8 if there were two in 2002.

[TT-SEA]

April 1951 also had a freaky late arctic airmass around the 20th. That was an interesting stretch.

 

Yeah... I see some lows in the 20s here around that time.

 

But high temps:

 

4/20 - 58

4/21 - 64

4/22 - 64

4/23 - 68

4/24 - 70

 

That is my kind of arctic air mass. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Made it down to 38 last night.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Made it down to 38 last night.

Most likely your coldest reading with the coming air mass.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Most likely your coldest reading with the coming air mass.

We shall see

[jaya]

You would think by what the gfs is showing that the wrf would look much better than it does. Maybe this a good thing. Would like to hear jaya's take on that.

 

I'm not sure I like the WRF Gfs for snowfall. It seems to overpredict during warm advection cases and underpredict for cold fronts.  It may be a temperature threshold problem of some sort.  We will see how it works out.  I like using QPF, 1000-850mb thickness, 925 temperature, surface temperature, and wind.  The WRFGFS, despite many improvements, seems to be too geostrophic with the winds at low levels and over mixes.  With Tuesday night's system, the WRF ensembles did okay and the ICON was the winner.  The GEM used in tropical tidbits and on our local system is too coarse of a resolution to grade fairly.  I also don't like raw snowfall amounts from the ECMWF - preferring the method above.

[Front Ranger]

I'm not sure I like the WRF Gfs for snowfall. It seems to overpredict during warm advection cases and underpredict for cold fronts.  It may be a temperature threshold problem of some sort.  We will see how it works out.  I like using QPF, 1000-850mb thickness, 925 temperature, surface temperature, and wind.  The WRFGFS, despite many improvements, seems to be too geostrophic with the winds at low levels and over mixes.  With Tuesday night's system, the WRF ensembles did okay and the ICON was the winner.  The GEM used in tropical tidbits and on our local system is too coarse of a resolution to grade fairly.  I also don't like raw snowfall amounts from the ECMWF - preferring the method above.

 

Nice to hear some input from a met on things like the ICON. Let's hope it turns out to be the Mercedes of models.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm not sure I like the WRF Gfs for snowfall. It seems to overpredict during warm advection cases and underpredict for cold fronts.  It may be a temperature threshold problem of some sort.  We will see how it works out.  I like using QPF, 1000-850mb thickness, 925 temperature, surface temperature, and wind.  The WRFGFS, despite many improvements, seems to be too geostrophic with the winds at low levels and over mixes.  With Tuesday night's system, the WRF ensembles did okay and the ICON was the winner.  The GEM used in tropical tidbits and on our local system is too coarse of a resolution to grade fairly.  I also don't like raw snowfall amounts from the ECMWF - preferring the method above.

After years of watching the WRF snow maps imo it does pretty fair with warm front over running for the hood canal area. Other places it sure is hit and miss. I was looking at the surface maps frame by frame and was very surprised of the bleak snow maps. Awesome to have your contribution on the forum btw.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This has to be decent for some snow.

[ShawniganLake]

This has to be decent for some snow.

Shows surprisingly little. Mostly falls up towards the border.

[Lisa0527]

A Euro snowfall map for those of us near the border would be lovely to see.

[Front Ranger]

Shows surprisingly little. Mostly falls up towards the border.

 

Even later on Sunday? Sure looks like it's about to be a good snow setup for much of the Puget Sound.

[wxmet]

ECMWF 12z is warm near the Sound. Light snow as the precip tapers off. 

[FroYoBro]

My hope for sticking snow Sunday evening is definitely fading. Portlanders need to start praying for that low around Tuesday-Wednesday to show up close to the coast. Could be our shot. 

[HighlandExperience]

Someone post w/b snow map for Euro

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Monday morning per 12Z ECMWF...

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

Total snow through Monday morning per 12Z ECMWF...

 

 

Shows a foot here. Haha. I doubt it.

[HighlandExperience]

Total snow through Monday morning per 12Z ECMWF...

 

 

Ugh hopefully the Euro is just missing something with the arctic front. Most we can hope for is an inch on the east side with that.

[TT-SEA]

Temperature at 4 p.m. on Sunday...

 

[wxmet]

Rain Sunday morning in the lowlands switching over the light snow as it tapers off. 

http://i67.tinypic.com/5pwfo.jpg

[Lisa0527]

Well, I have a soccer game on Sunday afternoon in East Vancouver. Feeling safe to make other plans for the day. Any snow at all and the fields will be closed.

[TT-SEA]

High temperatures on Monday...

 

[HighlandExperience]

[ShawniganLake]

[Perturbed Member]

At least that low sliding south on Tuesday/Wednesday is showing up on the GEM, ICON and NAVGEM. 12z GFS continues to send it too far west.  This is probably the best hope for a real snow even down here, little chance the actual front will cut it on Sunday for anything more than a dusting.

 

[Perturbed Member]

High temperatures on Monday...

 

 

 

Why the obsession with the high temps on Monday? Yes we will be in a cold airmass but the offshore gradients are weak and it is completely sunny and dry, are we expecting something different than upper 30s and low 40s?

 

It is plenty cold enough for snow if we get that low sliding down along the coast or if we get anything coming out of the south.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still shows snow for most everyone and as jaya said ratios could be better than 10to1. A lot can happen with this type of set up as far as where the best convergence is with the front.

[Front Ranger]

So 72ish hours from the event, we still have models all over the place with snowfall amounts and placement. Shocking. 

[TT-SEA]

High temperatures on Tuesday...

 

[Front Ranger]

Reload primed and ready to go at day 8.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 at omak wow!!

[TT-SEA]

Why the obsession with the high temps on Monday? Yes we will be in a cold airmass but the offshore gradients are weak and it is completely sunny and dry, are we expecting something different than upper 30s and low 40s?

 

It is plenty cold enough for snow if we get that low sliding down along the coast or if we get anything coming out of the south.

 

Not an obsession.  Some runs showed below freezing highs.   I am just trying to provide data from the ECMWF surface maps for people since they always ask.

 

Guess I won't do that now.  

[ShawniganLake]

Not an obsession. Some runs showed below freezing highs. I am just trying to provide data from the ECMWF surface maps for people since they always ask.

 

Guess I won't do that now.

I think most people are okay with you posting them.

[ShawniganLake]

Rain Sunday morning in the lowlands switching over the light snow as it tapers off.

http://i67.tinypic.com/5pwfo.jpg

FWIW. That shows rain near Victoria with 850mb temps of -12. Probably off just a little.