February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

You posted a 500mb map, I posted a 500mb map. It doesn't make any sense to say we were looking at different things.

 

Why did you post a 500mb anomaly map, if it didn't fit your point?

Read what I wrote. Context.

 

 

1) What “point” do you believe I was making here?

 

2) How does this map not fit my point”?

[Perturbed Member]

18z ICON is a bit warmer with the low further west, the higher precip rates do help PDX area a little bit. 

 

[Guest Dome Buster]

18z ICON is a bit warmer with the low further west, the higher precip rates do help PDX area a little bit.

 

That map shows a hell of a lot more than what was shown preceding January 10th last year. And we all know what happened down here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'm assuming these maps are low resolution and Brookings and Crescent city will not be seeing snow.

[FroYoBro]

I'm assuming these maps are low resolution and Brookings and Crescent city will not be seeing snow.

Yeah, that snow map is probably pretty worthless. 

[Phil]

Perhaps this will help clear things up. When I say “phase locking to open March”, I’m referring to the start of the *constructive interference* between the NAO and PNA, which begins around March 1st. However, the trigger that opened this pathway of communication was the SSW/PV breakdown. This has already occurred and is still occurring.

 

Does this clear up the confusion, Flatiron?

 

[High Desert Mat!]

That map shows a hell of a lot more than what was shown preceding January 10th last year. And we all know what happened down here.

No deformation band setting up either this time.

[Front Ranger]

Read what I wrote. Context.

 

 

1) What “point” do you believe I was making here?

 

2) How does this map not fit my point”?

 

Sure sounds like you were talking about heights. The map is also showing 500mb height anomalies, which makes sense. I also posted a map showing those same height anomalies.

 

Good lord, Phil...sometimes you purposefully try to make things more complicated than they are.

[Front Ranger]

Perhaps this will help clear things up. When I say “phase locking to open March”, I’m referring to the start of the *constructive interference* between the NAO and PNA, which begins around March 1st. However, the trigger that opened this pathway of communication was the SSW/PV breakdown. This has already occurred and is still occurring.

 

Does this clear up the confusion, Flatiron?

 

And my point was simply that the -PNA is already locked in and will continue to be locked in well before March and the "constructive interference" you're talking about.

 

I realize you're looking to tie it all up neatly with the modeled -NAO/-PNA, but it's not like nothing is happening before then. Whether it's all due to the SSW or not.

[seattleweatherguy]

I'm learning alot just by reading this fourum. It's very exciting.

[Perturbed Member]

That map shows a hell of a lot more than what was shown preceding January 10th last year. And we all know what happened down here.

 

It is a pretty different setup though. Jan 10 was kind of an overriding event, the cold air wasn't technically in place but the low approaching out of the SW helped pull cold air into the metro through the gorge and then precip overrode it. 

 

I have much less faith in these "arctic front" snow events. 90% of the time there is no moisture left once the temps have gotten low enough. No bitterly cold east winds to save us and the showery nature of this precip implies a snow/rain shadow from the coast range. 

 

IMO we are gonna need another low later on in the week if we want a proper widespread snowstorm. 

[Winterdog]

The GFS 18Z sure is snowy in the clown range

[Arctic Front]

That map shows a hell of a lot more than what was shown preceding January 10th last year. And we all know what happened down here.

Was also a totally different setup

[Phil]

And my point was simply that the -PNA is already locked in and will continue to be locked in well before March and the "constructive interference" you're talking about.

This is mostly incorrect (and also irrelevant to my post).

 

Since the NAO/NAM are coupled to the stratosphere, the pathway(s) of WAFz communication between the NAM/NAO and PNA are already open, hence the omgkimh flip to -PNA right after the SSW/PV breakdown. The full column NAM index (1hpa -1000hpa) went negative well before the PNA.

 

Also, I never said the -PNA wasn’t locked in. All I said is that the PNA and NAO enter into a state of constructive interference in early March, AKA, a phase locking regime (quasi-stable mode of communication with a set resonance period).

 

So you’re arguing with a ghost.

 

I realize you're looking to tie it all up neatly with the modeled -NAO/-PNA, but it's not like nothing is happening before then. Whether it's all due to the SSW or not.

Exactly! You’re ignoring what’s happening right now to initiate this PNA drop, and open up the pathway of communication between the PNA/NAO as time progresses.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Can't really draw up a model run better than the 18z this time of year. 

[FroYoBro]

Can't really draw up a model run better than the 18z this time of year. 

I could. 

[Deweydog]

I could.

#metoo

[BLI snowman]

Snowy March. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Can't really draw up a model run better than the 18z this time of year. 

 

Certainly for the lower cascade foothills.  It's a perfect setup for you.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

#metoo

Me3

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Certainly for the lower cascade foothills. It's a perfect setup for you.

Hope I don’t miss to much snow in March when I’m back east. Why did i schedule travel during my snowiest month.

[Front Ranger]

Hope I don’t miss to much snow in March when I’m back east. Why did i schedule travel during my snowiest month.

 

It's ok, according to Phil, March is the new January back east.

[ShawniganLake]

18z ensembles means

 

Vancouver -15

Seattle. -15

Portland -12.5

[Deweydog]

I'm just calling it like I see it. Your dis-endorsement of Phil/LR forecasts in general last night rang pretty hollow after you were all aboard the retrogression train along with everyone else in December. It was a rare moment when you let your guard down and joined the fray. Humanity!

 

Stop spreading fake news about my LR forecasting (and claiming you "give credit where its due"), and I'll let you off the hook this time.

Again, you're just trying to start a fight. Long lead stuff is a long way from calling an actual pattern progression 2-3 weeks in advance. He did an outstanding job at that point, something he tried to parlay into a 5-run homerun weeks beyond that. Now making an actual "winter forecast" in September I think is silly. Quick climo analysis based on ENSO seems logical, but that can be done in about two sentences. Most people know a cool, wet winter is more likely with a nina and there is a tendency toward a backloaded winter.

 

And you wanna talk humanity? Humanity is looking at the GFS beyond 240 hours. It's okay to be a model riding windowlicker.

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like 12z Chancellor ICON became 18z Fuhrer ICON. It only goes out to 120 hours on the 18z but things are looking further west for Tuesday...eh.

[wxmet]

NWS Downtown Seattle on Sunday:

 

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

[Front Ranger]

Again, you're just trying to start a fight. Long lead stuff is a long way from calling an actual pattern progression 2-3 weeks in advance. He did an outstanding job at that point, something he tried to parlay into a 5-run homerun weeks beyond that. Now making an actual "winter forecast" in September I think is silly. Quick climo analysis based on ENSO seems logical, but that can be done in about two sentences. Most people know a cool, wet winter is more likely with a nina and there is a tendency toward a backloaded winter.

 

I wasn't looking to start a fight. Simply pointing out how you, whether you admit it or not, got swept up in the December anticipatory euphoria along with everyone else. You were thinking Phil had done really well that month, and wow, it looks like he's going to nail the coming retrogressive blast. You drank the kool aid. It's ok.

 

You tried to make it a fight by responding with baseless insults about my LR forecasting. Not very above the fray.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Very nice afd by the NWS. Explains everything great.

[ShawniganLake]

Very nice afd by the NWS. Explains everything great.

Pretty conservative. No mention of the flash freeze.

[Deweydog]

I wasn't looking to start a fight. Simply pointing out how you, whether you admit it or not, got swept up in the December anticipatory euphoria along with everyone else. You were thinking Phil had done really well that month, and wow, it looks like he's going to nail the coming retrogressive blast. You drank the kool aid. It's ok.

 

You tried to make it a fight by responding with baseless insults about my LR forecasting. Not very above the fray.

Oh, Flatty...

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per the 18Z GFS through Monday afternoon...

 

[Blizzard777]

Hope I don’t miss to much snow in March when I’m back east. Why did i schedule travel during my snowiest month.

Don’t you hate that! My wife had me out of town most of January. Sucks that January didn’t produce but would of killed me if we had a active January! I did make sure all my plane tickets were refundable just Incase of the Arctic front decided to show up. So I understand your pain

 

Jim

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Total snow per the 18Z GFS through Monday afternoon...

 

Looks like a lot of shadowing. Still, I don't think it's accurate.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a lot of shadowing. Still, I don't think it's accurate.

 

 

Its not really shadowing.    It might be a little too warm during the first half of Sunday... maybe into the afternoon as well.   Then northerly flow slowly takes over and pushes the precip out before the cold air really arrives.   That is the problem with a slow bleed arctic front.   Temps are still in the mid 30s on Sunday afternoon when the precip appears to be ending.  

[HighlandExperience]

Its not really shadowing. It might be a little too warm during the first half of Sunday... maybe into the afternoon as well. Then northerly flow slowly takes over and pushes the precip out before the cold air really arrives. That is the problem with a slow bleed arctic front. Temps are still in the mid 30s on Sunday afternoon when the precip appears to be ending.

Tired of theses weak fronts

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tired of theses weak fronts

Every run from this point forward will change. Small changes to any low pressure to the south of the sound will make a large difference. Would help if there was stronger pressure in bc.

[HighlandExperience]

Every run from this point forward will change. Small changes to any low pressure to the south of the sound will make a large difference. Would help if there was stronger pressure in bc.

 

I just wish we could get a true arctic express. Our climate needs viagra 

[Farmboy]

Its not really shadowing. It might be a little too warm during the first half of Sunday... maybe into the afternoon as well. Then northerly flow slowly takes over and pushes the precip out before the cold air really arrives. That is the problem with a slow bleed arctic front. Temps are still in the mid 30s on Sunday afternoon when the precip appears to be ending.

That sounds soooo boring... Hopefully it doesn't pan out like that.

[TT-SEA]

That sounds soooo boring... Hopefully it doesn't pan out like that.

 

Well... I am sure Jim is still going with the arctic freight train idea.   Hope he is right this time.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Typhoon watch for hawaii. The next 3 weeks.