February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Euro shows snow near and north of border on Saturday morning. Quite a lot for parts of BC.

 

57B86D38-F0FA-45DC-9DC4-115B33C2E9A4.png

Hard to imagine a scenario at this point where your area doesn't do really well with the upcoming pattern.

[Front Ranger]

The CMC ensemble mean is usually warm/high biased with heights, and even it sees the massive -NAM/-PNA phase locking to open March.

 

That's skipping ahead quite a bit. The EPS is showing a deep -PNA at day 10...not so much with the -NAO.

 

[Phil]

That's skipping ahead quite a bit. The EPS is showing a deep -PNA at day 10...not so much with the -NAO.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

Except there’s already a -NAO/-NAM upstairs (through the wave-2 EOF). So I’m not “skipping” anything. You’re just not looking at the big picture.

 

FWIW, that wasn’t even the purpose of my post. I just think it bothers you to see the stratosphere and NAM street stomp your beloved EPO. Lol.

[Farmboy]

FWIW, looking at models today, there’s some obvious disagreement regarding which wave to break into the Eurasian/NAO domain (which is probably necessary to sustain the -PNA through next month).

 

The GFS was keying in on the first wave yesterday, but now it’s moving towards the ECMWF idea of having the second wave do the trick, which makes more sense mechanically, but will require an extra 5 days. Not a huge difference maker in the long run, but couid have short term implications for late February.

Sounds like what Phil is trying to say is "winter cancel" for the sunday-tuesday event boys....

[Phil]

Sounds like what Phil is trying to say is "winter cancel" for the sunday-tuesday event boys....

No. I’m looking at the pattern, not any particular event.

[luvssnow_spokane]

For the love of GOD

 

Well well... that is so good it makes me want to slap my mama and let the goats out.

[Farmboy]

Well well... that is so good it makes me want to slap my mama and let the goats out.

As usual, we can bask in the glow of hr. 384....

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12z nam even stronger with the low sat. 992 now.

[luvssnow_spokane]

My Euro link is broken.

 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/medium-z500-t850-public?time=2017052812,0,2017052812&projection=classical_north_america

TMI!!

[Front Ranger]

Except there’s already a -NAO/-NAM upstairs (through the wave-2 EOF). So I’m not “skipping” anything. You’re just not looking at the big picture.

 

We both posted maps of height anomalies from ensemble means. Mine was 10 days out, yours was 16. We were looking at the same thing, just different time periods.

[Front Ranger]

As usual, we can bask in the glow of hr. 384....

 

Just Andrew being silly...obviously there's a lot more to focus on well before then. 

[ShawniganLake]

12z nam even stronger with the low sat. 992 now.

Is that good?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Is that good?

I would think more energy with this situation is a good thing.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Hi.

[Front Ranger]

Phil went from being some kind of a savant to some kind of an amateur in about a ten day span there.

 

Perception is a funny thing. People tend to get carried away one way or the other. 

 

Phil is a good LR forecaster. But LR forecasting is hard. If you get more hits than misses, you're winning. 

 

He says a lot of different things that relate to LR forecasting, and sometimes he'll look really good, other times really bad. And sometimes it has more to do with perception than accuracy. 

[Phil]

We both posted maps of height anomalies from ensemble means. Mine was 10 days out, yours was 16. We were looking at the same thing, just different time periods.

What exactly is your point? What does this have to do with my original post?

[Perturbed Member]

18z CHANCELLOR ICON IS INITIALIZING! 

[ShawniganLake]

18z CHANCELLOR ICON IS INITIALIZING!

It only goes to hr120 this run. Won’t be able to see the day 6 eye candy that the 12z showed.

[Phil]

Perception is a funny thing. People tend to get carried away one way or the other.

 

Phil is a good LR forecaster. But LR forecasting is hard. If you get more hits than misses, you're winning.

 

He says a lot of different things that relate to LR forecasting, and sometimes he'll look really good, other times really bad. And sometimes it has more to do with perception than accuracy.

Yep, I agree. This is true for everyone who tries to forecast on longer timescales.

 

We all have our unique stumbling blocks, strengths, and areas of general intrigue. I’ve been burned by strong western Pacific convection several times over the last year. Not something I’m happy about, but you’re always gonna screw up here and there, so all you can do is learn from it and move on.

 

My area of academic research is actually intradecadal climate variability and paleoclimate, not seasonal forecasting. So I’m more “comfortable” forecasting ENSO/ocean oscillations and long term changes to circulation than I am forecasting seasonally.

[Perturbed Member]

It only goes to hr120 this run. Won’t be able to see the day 6 eye candy that the 12z showed.

 

Forgot about that. Though comparing HR126 on 12z vs HR120 on 18z might give us a pretty good hint about where things are headed. 

[ShawniganLake]

Hi.

Looks very similar to the euro with placement of the low.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Is that good?

Heavier precip rates = more evaporative cooling? Am I doing it right?

[wxmet]

NAM 18z looks solid. Would be nice if that low continued to trend south to avoid the potential for a dry slot. 

[Esquimalt]

WRF still not seeing what most other models are seeing. Not sure what's going on there, not that it matters much.

 

It's starting to indicate an area of heavier snow directly over downtown/Oak Bay/Esquimalt and View Royal, very similar to the Feb 6th, 2017 event.  I wonder why?  

[Front Ranger]

What exactly is your point? What does this have to do with my original post?

 

My point was that before we get to that massive -NAO block you wanted to highlight 16 days from now, the EPS is showing a period with deep -PNA and neutralish NAO.

[Front Ranger]

It only goes to hr120 this run. Won’t be able to see the day 6 eye candy that the 12z showed.

 

I wish more runs only went out to hour 120.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 inches of snow before going into a cold air mass would be very nice.

[ShawniganLake]

Heavier precip rates = more evaporative cooling? Am I doing it right?

Not really. Not when the low center is north of everyone.

[ShawniganLake]

I wish more runs only went out to hour 120.

So you wouldn’t continue to give in to the temptation of looking at the long range?

[Front Ranger]

So you wouldn’t continue to give in to the temptation of looking at the long range?

 

Nah. I'm just looking out for everyone else's health. 

 

Honestly, I feel like too much time is spent analyzing clown range maps for periods with little model skill. Guess it's part of the hobby for some people...I prefer the ensembles, because all I'm really looking for past day 7 or 8 is the overall pattern signals.

[HighlandExperience]

18z NAM shows snow for Western WA from roughly 7AM-7PM Sunday. No crazy amounts but a solid 2 inches or so most places.

That would be nice

[FroYoBro]

Nah. I'm just looking out for everyone else's health. 

 

Honestly, I feel like too much time is spent analyzing clown range maps for periods with little model skill. Guess it's part of the hobby for some people...I prefer the ensembles, because all I'm really looking for past day 7 or 8 is the overall pattern signals.

I don't think long range models are hurting anyone. You are just being a bully! Leave them alone! 

[Perturbed Member]

That would be nice

 

D**n that rain shadow here...ouch. Looks like we should get a brief burst of snow near the back edge of the front according to most models at least. 

[Esquimalt]

18Z Icon showing heavy precipitation associated with the Sunday low hitting the Nanaimo area and moving south east.  The main low is further west and slightly deeper.  

[Phil]

My point was that before we get to that massive -NAO block you wanted to highlight 16 days from now, the EPS is showing a period with deep -PNA and neutralish NAO.

Just at 500mb. There’s already a -NAO/-NAM aloft, in the context of the resonant wave-2 pathway for WAFz communication. So your point is pointless, both in the physical sense, and in the context of my post.

 

These 500mb/middle tropospheric circulations don’t occur in a vacuum. The entire system is in communication..it was the SSW/PV breakdown that was the trigger that opened the climatological communication pathway between the PNA/NAO, regardless of which one manifests first in the lower troposphere.

[Front Ranger]

I don't think long range models are hurting anyone. You are just being a bully! Leave them alone! 

 

 

You're right. Long range models don't hurt weenies, weenies hurt weenies.

[Front Ranger]

Just at 500mb. There’s already a -NAO/-NAM aloft, in the context of the resonant wave-2 pathway for WAFz communication. So your point is pointless, both in the physical sense, and in the context of my post.

 

These 500mb/middle tropospheric circulations don’t occur in a vacuum. The entire system is in communication..it was the SSW/PV breakdown that was the trigger that opened the climatological communication pathway between the PNA/NAO, regardless of which one manifests first in the lower troposphere.

 

You posted a 500mb map, I posted a 500mb map. It doesn't make any sense to say we were looking at different things.

 

Why did you post a 500mb anomaly map, if it didn't fit your point?

[Phil]

That aforementioned pathway of communication between the PNA and NAO has always existed. It can be opened/closed/mediated on short timescales depending on the state of the NAM and degree of vertical coupling present (for example, coupled/baratropic, coupled/baroclinic, noncoupled/baratropic, noncoupled/baroclinic), which can hinge on QBO/tropical forcing conduits, etc. But again, it’s always been there.

 

It’s why most of 2017/18 has been +PNA/+NAO in the face of an overwhelming -EPO. It’s why the SSW reflects a pathway to reverse said system state.

[Front Ranger]

18z GFS shows shadowing being more of an issue for the central Puget Sound. Who knows...

[Front Ranger]

18z GFS also shows less snow than 12z, especially for the south sound. Models continuing their wiffle-waffling on snow totals, as expected.

 

The only model which has been fairly steady is the Euro... fairly steady in not showing much, that is. Remains to be seen if that's a good thing or a bad thing.

 

Yeah, and even the Euro has waffled between favoring the north sound or areas further south.