February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

But it's also a low-res, shitty map.

 

Way better than that grid-like macro resolution map I see posted on here all the time to show GFS and GEM snowfall. 

[Front Ranger]

Way better than that grid-like macro resolution map I see posted on here all the time to show GFS and GEM snowfall. 

 

It looks prettier. Not sure it's any more accurate. 

[seattleweatherguy]

Sunday

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Sunday Night

A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 24. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

 

Nws says for bothell take it as a grain of salt for now

[Esquimalt]

GEM looking  less like a gem.  Too bad.  Both GEM and GFS have everything shifted a little east which makes the difference tonight.  

[BLI snowman]

The Canadian likes snow.

[Deweydog]

You're right, Tim. Season three goes off the rails a little bit.

[Deweydog]

Luckily the Canadian is typically the drier model!

[TT-SEA]

You're right, Tim. Season three goes off the rails a little bit.

Yeah... they were trying too hard.

 

Season 4 is better. They have long story arcs and I enjoyed it more. Macy is simply awesome in that season.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Still out on it's own with the Tuesday/Wednesday system being close enough for snow inland.

 

It's either leading the charge or horribly off with the positioning. Any bets?

 

I'm leaning towards the GEM being correct. These BC sliders always seem to find a way in. EURO was close and wouldn't shock me if it followed similarly to the GEM tonight.

[Esquimalt]

Clown range of the GFS gets ridiculous lol.  -28 temp anomalies throughout all of BC, just crazy and not going to happen.  

[Deweydog]

#Regionwide

 

Classic PNW March SW'ster snowstorm!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Been fun to follow these runs.

[TT-SEA]

Cloud cover on the WRF at 10 a.m. on Sunday... looks like there could be appreciable sun by that afternoon in many places.

 

[Deweydog]

Cloud cover on the WRF at 10 a.m. on Sunday... looks like there could be appreciable sun by that afternoon in many places.

 

Sun ain't gonna help much with WC's in the negative teens.

[TT-SEA]

00z WRF definitely shows more snow than previous runs. Moving to the ICON? 

 

 

 

That is more snow?   I thought there was a run that showed more snow in the Seattle area?

 

Here is a wider view...

 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Cloud cover on the WRF at 10 a.m. on Sunday... looks like there could be appreciable sun by that afternoon in many places.

 

This says otherwise:

 

[TT-SEA]

Sun ain't gonna help much with WC's in the negative teens.

 

Very true.    By 1 p.m. on Sunday it looks like its partly cloudy for most of the area.

 

 

 

And then 4 p.m. its actually sunny in some places.   I do think the cloud cover maps give you a better idea of the conditions that day in general.   Might be snow showers and sun breaks.  

 

 

[TT-SEA]

This says otherwise:

 

 

That looks like mostly high clouds.   But the MM5 NAM is always hideous with cloud cover... take it from someone who always focuses on that with the MM5 models. 

[Jesse]

Going to be fun watching everyone downplay this thing in real time.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

That looks like mostly high clouds.   But the MM5 NAM is always hideous with cloud cover... take it from someone who always focuses on that with the MM5 models. 

My point is that showers may be scattered by then, but I'm not certain the precip will be so quick to shut off.

[TT-SEA]

Precip certainly will not be rain on Sunday!   Here are 925mb temps at 4 p.m.

 

[Deweydog]

Going to be fun watching everyone downplay this thing in real time.

Should've held out on hiatus a little longer.

[TT-SEA]

My point is that showers may be scattered by then, but I'm not certain the precip will be so quick to shut off.

 

Very unlikely it shuts off completely by late morning.    But does not look like a c-zone set up either... too much northerly flow.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to be fun watching everyone downplay this thing in real time

 

Yeah hard to believe we won't achieve mid winter records in late winter...

[Jesse]

Should've held out on hiatus a little longer.

It’s always right there waiting for me like a warm hug from an old friend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Precip certainly will not be rain on Sunday!   Here are 925mb temps at 4 p.m.

 

 

I'm feeling good about some solid snowfall up here.

[Deweydog]

It’s always right there waiting for me like a warm hug from an old friend.

It's nice to have things in life you can count on.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Very unlikely it shuts off completely by late morning.    But does not look like a c-zone set up either... too much northerly flow.

Agreed.

[Jesse]

It's nice to have things in life you can count on.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I just got home from bowling; very quiet in here...

[Jesse]

00z GFS is just a fantastically cold run for this late in the season, from start to finish.

[snow_wizard]

Keep in mind the models almost always under do precip with these events.  There are always surprises.

 

In the bigger picture it's looking increasingly possible it will stay notably cold through most of next week.  The models are flirting with a couple of more solid cold shots.

[snow_wizard]

00z GFS is just a fantastically cold run for this late in the season, from start to finish.

 

There will probably be several lowland snow opportunities at times.  A lot of different possible scenarios.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW these late season cold waves almost always have snow in the Puget Sound region.  Past experience may be more useful than models at this point.  This GFS run has a period of WSW flow aloft early Sunday morning which is a big thing we want to see.

[snow_wizard]

Good Lord...the ensemble mean stays below -5 through the 25th now.  It seems that many on here are underestimating how impressive this cold wave is going to be.  This looks to easily be in the top 3 cold air masses for this century so far.  A decent analog is November 2010...at least from a cold standpoint.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good Lord...the ensemble mean stays below -5 through the 25th now.  It seems that many on here are underestimating how impressive this cold wave is going to be.  This looks to easily be in the top 3 cold air masses for this century so far.  A decent analog is November 2010...at least from a cold standpoint.

 

I don't think temps will be as cold as November 2010.

[MossMan]

Total snow per the 00Z GFS through Sunday evening at 10 p.m. Precip is done at this point from Portland northward.

 

Much better for my area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Let's not spike the football on the 5 yard line please.

[Front Ranger]

I just got home from bowling; very quiet in here...

 

Weird, same here.

[Front Ranger]

I don't think temps will be as cold as November 2010.

 

Definitely not. SEA is not pulling out a high of 25.