February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[van city]

Thoughts on the 12Z Euro? Doesn’t look like it’s backing off on the cold and snow...but I only have Tropical Tidbits:(

Don't you worry, Tim got you covered.

[ShawniganLake]

Thoughts on the 12Z Euro? Doesn’t look like it’s backing off on the cold and snow...but I only have Tropical Tidbits:(

Looks similar to the 0z so far.

[van city]

Where's Tim?

[Esquimalt]

Thoughts on the 12Z Euro? Doesn’t look like it’s backing off on the cold and snow...but I only have Tropical Tidbits:(

At hour 48, the low is a bit more offshore (to the northwest) and deeper, very similar to the GEM.  The cold air is a little slower to come in, but conditions do look correct for snow in many places, including Vancouver.  

 

The setup looking further forwards looks a little west from last night's run.  

[ShawniganLake]

Where's Tim?

The snow maps aren’t updated far enough to matter yet. Haha.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If the snow maps look good Tim won't post them. 

[HighlandExperience]

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Sunday at 4 p.m. and the precip is done at this point for WA:

 

 

 

 

Temperatures at 4 p.m. on Sunday... looks warmer than the 00Z run.   Still well above freezing in Seattle.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Someone post the wb snowmap

 

Really a shame the free site is gone

For a free alternative, go to weather.us  Their snowmaps measure snow in QPF, meaning how much precipitation is falling as snow  So if an area has 0.3 inches falling as snow, it is probably about 3 inches as snow.  Not quite as user friendly as WB, but I think Tim may not be available, but anyone can access weather.us

 

It also has temperature maps, precip type, etc.  No reason to be dependent on other people to post maps.

[Lisa0527]

Total snow through Sunday at 4 p.m. and the precip is done at this point for WA:

 

 

 

 

Temperatures at 4 p.m. on Sunday... looks warmer than the 00Z run. Still well above freezing in Seattle.

 

Looks a bit better for Vancouver Thanks for posting.

[Perturbed Member]

Ugh, I really hate the coast range when it rain shadows PDX this bad. Great orographics for those with elevation though.

 

 

Directly translates into little to no snow. 

 

 

I'm being a broken record of course but there just isn't going to be any precip left here once it is cold enough. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The high temps on Sunday have fluctuated about 1 degree on the EURO for the past 5-6 runs, yet Tim says they are warmer every time. 50 or so at Sea-Tac is looking likely...

 

I have not seen anything below 39 at SLE, which is what this run is showing. NWS is actually forecasting 45 that day.

[Esquimalt]

Ugh, I really hate the coast range when it rain shadows PDX this bad. Great orographics for those with elevation though.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018021612_72_494_220.png

 

Directly translates into little to no snow. 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018021612_72_494_215.png

 

I'm being a broken record of course but there just isn't going to be any precip left here once it is cold enough. 

This euro isn't showing much for my area either.  Must be a little too warm.   

[Lisa0527]

Hmmm....so looks like I’ll get anywhere from nothing to 8” I’m just west of that little Vancouver dot.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ugh, I really hate the coast range when it rain shadows PDX this bad. Great orographics for those with elevation though.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018021612_72_494_220.png

 

Directly translates into little to no snow. 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018021612_72_494_215.png

 

I'm being a broken record of course but there just isn't going to be any precip left here once it is cold enough. 

 

I like these maps better than the weather bell maps. 

[BLI snowman]

Widespread snow on Wednesday morning with the system dropping south on the 12z Euro.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Widespread snow on Wednesday morning with the system dropping south on the 12z Euro.

 

That one is starting to look like it may have the best potential to be a widespread snowmaker. 

[Perturbed Member]

I like these maps better than the weather bell maps. 

 

I wonder how long they will remain free.

[TT-SEA]

The high temps on Sunday have fluctuated about 1 degree on the EURO for the past 5-6 runs, yet Tim says they are warmer every time. 50 or so at Sea-Tac is looking likely...

 

I have not seen anything below 39 at SLE, which is what this run is showing. NWS is actually forecasting 45 that day.

00Z ECMWF showed 33-34 and now shows 35-36 for the Seattle area. The 00Z run was colder than yesterday's 12Z run.

[TT-SEA]

Onto another plane now.

[HighlandExperience]

For a free alternative, go to weather.us Their snowmaps measure snow in QPF, meaning how much precipitation is falling as snow So if an area has 0.3 inches falling as snow, it is probably about 3 inches as snow. Not quite as user friendly as WB, but I think Tim may not be available, but anyone can access weather.us

 

It also has temperature maps, precip type, etc. No reason to be dependent on other people to post maps.

I mostly go to tropical tidbits for all the other weather models.

 

I like when tt post the w/b maps. They are nice.

 

Checking out that site for the first time. It’s not bad...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00Z ECMWF showed 33-34 and now shows 35-36 for the Seattle area. The 00Z run was colder than yesterday's 12Z run.

 

Maybe I missed last nights run...Because the maps you posted look about the same as yesterday's 12z....Slightly better for snow down here..

[Esquimalt]

Widespread snow on Wednesday morning with the system dropping south on the 12z Euro.

Where do you find the maps? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Good afd from Seattle NWS. Saying now the outflow will be very strong on Sunday. 

[Perturbed Member]

This euro isn't showing much for my area either.  Must be a little too warm.   

 

I think this run might have gotten a bit warmer. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Onto another plane now.

 

BALLER!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[umadbro]

I really feel like models are under doing the amount of moisture on Sunday.

[ShawniganLake]

This euro isn't showing much for my area either. Must be a little too warm.

Not much precip. The big snow maker is north of here and dissipates quickly as it pushes south

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BTW. Lesson learned here. Never give up on a Nina. 

[TT-SEA]

Maybe I missed last nights run...Because the maps you posted look about the same as yesterday's 12z....Slightly better for snow down here..

I am literally only looking at the Seattle area. Information overload right now.

[MossMan]

Total snow through Sunday at 4 p.m. and the precip is done at this point for WA:

 

 

 

 

Temperatures at 4 p.m. on Sunday... looks warmer than the 00Z run. Still well above freezing in Seattle.

 

I get fingered by blue! Yay!

[Perturbed Member]

Widespread snow on Wednesday morning with the system dropping south on the 12z Euro.

 

Certainly looks like the best shot at a real snow event but temps look suspect. 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The blocking and continued chances for snow in the long range is really something. 

[Jesse]

I think this run might have gotten a bit warmer.

I keep hearing how every run has gotten warmer but I’m not seeing it. Fluctuations in snow amounts, precip type and timing aren’t synonymous with “warmer”.

[seattleweatherguy]

FXUS66 KSEW 161758

AFDSEW

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

958 AM PST Fri Feb 16 2018

 

.SYNOPSIS...A broad trough of low pressure will pass southeast

through Western Washington today. Windy conditions and heavy

mountain snow are expected Saturday as a deepening surface low

tracks southeast down Vancouver Island and then across to

northeast Washington. On Sunday, a modified arctic cold front will

move southward through the area, bringing the possibility of

lowland snow, as well as strong wind. It will be followed from

late Sunday through Tuesday with dry weather but some of the

coldest air so far this winter.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM...Active and potentially impactful weather coming up

this weekend, first on Saturday in the form of wind and heavy

mountain snow, then on Sunday with the potential for lowland snow

and strong northeast-north Fraser Outflow wind. Coldest air mass

of the winter is expected from Sunday night through Monday night.

 

Though today`s weather is not insignificant, it is the lesser

concern compared with Saturday, Sunday, and beyond. The current

round of Winter Weather Advisories in the Cascades is verifying

well. Precip and wind will generally be on a decreasing trend for

the rest of today, as a broad trough of low pressure in northwest

flow aloft exits.

 

On Saturday, a deepening low pressure center will move southeast

down Vancouver Island, then track east near Vancouver B.C. and

continue deepening as it moves to northeast Washington. At it

closest approach, the central pressure of the low will be near 998

mb. Strengthening or deepening lows typically come with more lift

and greater impact. The low will be preceded by a large swath of

warm advection lift, while northwest flow aloft is a great

direction for enhancing orographic lift and snowfall totals over

the Cascades, including the main highway passes. Some of the

heaviest snow totals in the passes come in this type of pattern.

Will be issuing a Winter Storm Warning for the mountains for

Saturday in the next hour or so. One to two feet or more of snow

seem likely. Avalanche danger will be elevated given the heavy

snow and wind.

 

Southwest gradients will really pick up as the low makes it

closest approach around mid-day Saturday. Models bring the HQM-SEA

gradient to around +4 to +4.5 mb, and the UIL-BLI gradient should

reach near +5 mb around mid-day Saturday. GFS MOS peaks the

sustained wind at Shelton, Tacoma Narrows, Tacoma McChord, Sea-

Tac, and West Point (Discovery Park) at 34, 28, 31, 27, and 34

knots respectively in the southwest wind mid-day Saturday. With

925 mb winds of 40-50 knots and cold advection during this period,

wind gusts of 45-50 mph are totally reasonable for the South and

Central Sound regions. Further north, a strong westerly surge is

expected through the Strait during the afternoon. NW flow aloft

favors such surges impinging on land areas on the U.S. side of the

Strait and the Admiralty Inlet area. Given all these things, have

gone with a round of Wind Advisories for tomorrow. Would not be

surprised if one or two zones pick up a few stronger gusts.

 

After the low exits east on Saturday night, a cold front will

spread out of B.C. into Western Washington on Sunday morning,

aided by strong Fraser Outflow wind. The Bellingham to Williams

Lake gradient could exceed -20 mb on Sunday morning, making this a

strong outflow event. May eventually need a High Wind Warning for

Western Whatcom County on Sunday. This pattern will cause a sharp

modified arctic cold front to slip southward. The air aloft will

be cold, so low-level convergence near the frontal boundary and

some instability could support snow showers as the front moves

south. The Port Angeles area is most likely to get snow, given

northeast wind upsloping along the north-facing side of the

Olympic Mtns. The Puget Sound lowlands should get spotty

accumulations of an inch or two. Emphasis on "spotty", meaning

some places will miss out altogether. The latest UW-WRF model

paints the more widespread areas of snow from Tacoma and Shelton

on south through Lewis County. Haner

 

.LONG TERM...From Previous Discussion: Monday and Tuesday will be

dry but chilly with northerly flow aloft. Fraser outflow will

ease but modified arctic air will linger over the area. Highs will

be mostly in the mid to upper 30s and lows will be in the 20s

with some teens in spots. Some of this will depend on if there is

any snow on the ground from Sunday. A weather system will drop

down from the north later Wednesday or Wednesday night for another

chance of rain or snow. Schneider

[BLI snowman]

Where do you find the maps? 

 

You can view precip maps here

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php

[Perturbed Member]

Total snow on the ground after the Wednesday event. Not bad

 

[Esquimalt]

Certainly looks like the best shot at a real snow event but temps look suspect. 

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018021612_129_1256_241.png

us_model-en_modez_2018021612_129_494_155.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018021612_129_494_488.png

That looks like a snow event for a few people on higher terrain at best.  Does anyone think otherwise?  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I keep hearing how every run has gotten warmer but I’m not seeing it. Fluctuations in snow amounts, precip type and timing aren’t synonymous with “warmer”.

 

I agree Jesse. And overall the models from start to finish have improved. Have you seen the GFS ensemble. OMG. Pretty much 10 days where the mean is -5C or lower....Given that I'm not sure we've even verified below -5C at 850mb this winter, that is pretty notable.