February 5th-6th Midwest Snow Storm

[bud2380]

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I'm never sure how you feel on a storm because you live and die every run.

Actually this time I was pretty set on nothing happening here. I've pretty much felt nothing all week on it.

[Bryan1117]

This storms dead to me. Anyone else?

Winter has been dead to me since the last storm system grazed us... personally I loved the near 50 degree weather today. Got some things done outside.

 

Why would we really want little 1-2 inch clipper dustings, when with a bare ground we can get better warmups? If we can’t get a decent snowstorm here, then let’s pass on the nickel and dimers. At least that’s my thinking.

[CentralNebWeather]

Winter has been dead to me since the last storm system grazed us... personally I loved the near 50 degree weather today. Got some things done outside.

 

Why would we really want little 1-2 inch clipper dustings, when with a bare ground we can get better warmups? If we can’t get a decent snowstorm here, then let’s pass on the nickel and dimers. At least that’s my thinking.

I’m with you. These little dustings have basically been our winter. I would rather start tracking severe weather than read the words “a coating to an inch possible.”

[bud2380]

NAM up to a foot for my area. LOL

[bud2380]

Oh I spoke too soon. It’s now up to 13.4”

[Tom]

00z NAM...woah, would make up for our current lack luster system...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020400/054/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Niko]

There we go!

[Tom]

High rez 00z NAM also advertising significant snow across IA/IL....looks like an I-80 special from both NAM's tonight...

[bud2380]

The college of dupage snow ratios are always over done. It says kuchera but it doesn’t line up with other kuchera maps.

[Tom]

Temps are in the mid teens so this stuff should have no problem fluffing up...850's are mostly below -10C which is ideal for minimum 15:1 ratios...geeze, I just looked at the 3hr increments on the 00z NAM and it snows at rates of 1-2"/ hr!

 

 

Quite a thumping...

 

[GDR]

The 00z icon drills southern half of Iowa.

[GDR]

[Money]

Gfs coming in north from 18z

[gosaints]

Drier than both nams

[GDR]

I’d say a lot drier compared to nam

[bud2380]

Wow. Major change on the GFS. Much drier and heaviest bands much further south

[Minny_Weather]

 

Wasn't expecting anything from this in the first place, but it's hilarious to see us be surrounded by >2" amounts and we're left with a dusting.

[Hawkeye]

The Canadian has shifted a bit south and dried out somewhat, too, has CR down to 0.33".  The GFS and ICON have CR down to about 0.25".  If the UK and Euro shift south, it'll be tough to buy the nam.

[GDR]

18z GEFS further south also

[Tabitha]

 

Wasn't expecting anything from this in the first place, but it's hilarious to see us be surrounded by >2" amounts and we're left with a dusting.

 

The terrible lies of the models that I cited here are replicated to the East; 24 hours later...

 

Rinse; wash; repeat.

[bud2380]

UK with the heaviest band along I80 still

[Tabitha]

Another thing I have been delinquent in is failing to note is how practically none (except for the blizzard 12 days ago) of these systems have anything resembling good upper air support.

 

They are all weak or mediocre surface disturbances; no big troughs at 850 or 700 mb have appeared.

 

If a storm does not have good upper air support; it is a 1 - 3 incher in most cases.

 

If you want a good snowstorm; you need that very cold air aloft; the sharp vertical temperature contrast; rising air, convection; and then you will get the good vertical motion / vertical velocities and heavy precipitation.

 

No wonder they have all fizzled!

 

The question then becomes; why have the models likewise failed to pick this up; printing out 10 - 20 inches of new snow every week?

 

The algorithm upon which they run must be flawed!

 

Perhaps it is because there is no 925 mb level (above 2500') around here; and in some parts no 850 mb level (above 5000')...they might be confused; it seems silly; but they have been wrong every time; so the proof is in the pudding.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

UK with the heaviest band along I80 still

Image?

[bud2380]

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&type=PR&hi=024&hf=072&mode=latest&lang=en&map=na

[Minny_Weather]

Image?

Not I-80 for here, silly!

[bud2380]

Sorry I meant in my neck of the woods.

[Tabitha]

I don't want any photos, you can keep them too yourself.  Photos will just make me even more mad. lol

 

Seems you got the Last Laugh; as the storm fizzled here.

 

It will teach me not to brag prematurely; or as Mommy would say:

 

"Do not count your chickens before they are hatched!"

[hlcater]

I think the NAM is gonna be left on its own with WPF, both the 12z euro and 00z GFS dried out and shifted south. Somewhat facetiously, I’m sure this system will find a way to tease us.

[Grizzcoat]

From airport codes -- EURO seems to have slightly dried out also.  Still a 3-5:" event thou for those targeted. Knowing DMX- they will likely not issue watches but just wait and issue advisories in the PM. (unless something drastically changes)

[hlcater]

From airport codes -- EURO seems to have slightly dried out also.  Still a 3-5:" event thou for those targeted. Knowing DMX- they will likely not issue watches but just wait and issue advisories in the PM. (unless something drastically changes)

Eh, a QPF map I was looking at doesnt look like it dried out much, just redistributed the highest QPF further east. 

[Grizzcoat]

DMX really not buying the S shift in models and has the heaviest snow between Hwy 20 and Hwy 30. Grids in those areas are 4-6" and even 4-8". Going with a blend of Euro and GFS. Not a hint of WSW or WWA, probably come in the PM package.  Did have a quick burst of .2" that was not picked up by any model so it goes to show you how near infinite the variables are in the weather and trying to model it is far from accurate.

[GDR]

Gfs goes north

[FV-Mike]

LOT's thoughts. it has been awhile since we seen over 4 in a storm. 

 

 

[bud2380]

The 6z NAM went north and cut qpf in half from 00z. 6z 3k nam went so far north that the areas shown by the NWS to be in the heaviest band get virtually nothing.

[bud2380]

well i sure hope the NAM is the northerly outlier, which is usually the case.  

[bud2380]

Even with the northern shift, the NAM still has 8.4" for Cedar Rapids and 5.7" for Iowa City.  

[bud2380]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020412/039/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020412/039/snku_acc.us_mw.png

To believe, or not to believe...that is the question...at least its back to reality with the snow fall amounts instead of painting those 12"+ totals last night.

[bud2380]

It really is hard to trust the NAM. The RGEM will be out shortly. I have a lot more faith in that model. Let’s see what it says.