bud2380 Posted February 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 3, 2018 Report Share Posted February 3, 2018 I'm never sure how you feel on a storm because you live and die every run.Actually this time I was pretty set on nothing happening here. I've pretty much felt nothing all week on it. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 This storms dead to me. Anyone else?Winter has been dead to me since the last storm system grazed us... personally I loved the near 50 degree weather today. Got some things done outside. Why would we really want little 1-2 inch clipper dustings, when with a bare ground we can get better warmups? If we can’t get a decent snowstorm here, then let’s pass on the nickel and dimers. At least that’s my thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 Winter has been dead to me since the last storm system grazed us... personally I loved the near 50 degree weather today. Got some things done outside. Why would we really want little 1-2 inch clipper dustings, when with a bare ground we can get better warmups? If we can’t get a decent snowstorm here, then let’s pass on the nickel and dimers. At least that’s my thinking.I’m with you. These little dustings have basically been our winter. I would rather start tracking severe weather than read the words “a coating to an inch possible.” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 NAM up to a foot for my area. LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 Oh I spoke too soon. It’s now up to 13.4” 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 00z NAM...woah, would make up for our current lack luster system... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020400/054/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 There we go! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 High rez 00z NAM also advertising significant snow across IA/IL....looks like an I-80 special from both NAM's tonight... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 The college of dupage snow ratios are always over done. It says kuchera but it doesn’t line up with other kuchera maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 Temps are in the mid teens so this stuff should have no problem fluffing up...850's are mostly below -10C which is ideal for minimum 15:1 ratios...geeze, I just looked at the 3hr increments on the 00z NAM and it snows at rates of 1-2"/ hr! Quite a thumping... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 The 00z icon drills southern half of Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 Gfs coming in north from 18z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 Drier than both nams Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 I’d say a lot drier compared to nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 Wow. Major change on the GFS. Much drier and heaviest bands much further south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 Wasn't expecting anything from this in the first place, but it's hilarious to see us be surrounded by >2" amounts and we're left with a dusting. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 The Canadian has shifted a bit south and dried out somewhat, too, has CR down to 0.33". The GFS and ICON have CR down to about 0.25". If the UK and Euro shift south, it'll be tough to buy the nam. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 18z GEFS further south also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 Wasn't expecting anything from this in the first place, but it's hilarious to see us be surrounded by >2" amounts and we're left with a dusting. The terrible lies of the models that I cited here are replicated to the East; 24 hours later... Rinse; wash; repeat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 UK with the heaviest band along I80 still Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 Another thing I have been delinquent in is failing to note is how practically none (except for the blizzard 12 days ago) of these systems have anything resembling good upper air support. They are all weak or mediocre surface disturbances; no big troughs at 850 or 700 mb have appeared. If a storm does not have good upper air support; it is a 1 - 3 incher in most cases. If you want a good snowstorm; you need that very cold air aloft; the sharp vertical temperature contrast; rising air, convection; and then you will get the good vertical motion / vertical velocities and heavy precipitation. No wonder they have all fizzled! The question then becomes; why have the models likewise failed to pick this up; printing out 10 - 20 inches of new snow every week? The algorithm upon which they run must be flawed! Perhaps it is because there is no 925 mb level (above 2500') around here; and in some parts no 850 mb level (above 5000')...they might be confused; it seems silly; but they have been wrong every time; so the proof is in the pudding. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 UK with the heaviest band along I80 stillImage? Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&type=PR&hi=024&hf=072&mode=latest&lang=en&map=na Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 Image?Not I-80 for here, silly! 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 Sorry I meant in my neck of the woods. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 I don't want any photos, you can keep them too yourself. Photos will just make me even more mad. lol Seems you got the Last Laugh; as the storm fizzled here. It will teach me not to brag prematurely; or as Mommy would say: "Do not count your chickens before they are hatched!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 I think the NAM is gonna be left on its own with WPF, both the 12z euro and 00z GFS dried out and shifted south. Somewhat facetiously, I’m sure this system will find a way to tease us. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 From airport codes -- EURO seems to have slightly dried out also. Still a 3-5:" event thou for those targeted. Knowing DMX- they will likely not issue watches but just wait and issue advisories in the PM. (unless something drastically changes) Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 From airport codes -- EURO seems to have slightly dried out also. Still a 3-5:" event thou for those targeted. Knowing DMX- they will likely not issue watches but just wait and issue advisories in the PM. (unless something drastically changes)Eh, a QPF map I was looking at doesnt look like it dried out much, just redistributed the highest QPF further east. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 DMX really not buying the S shift in models and has the heaviest snow between Hwy 20 and Hwy 30. Grids in those areas are 4-6" and even 4-8". Going with a blend of Euro and GFS. Not a hint of WSW or WWA, probably come in the PM package. Did have a quick burst of .2" that was not picked up by any model so it goes to show you how near infinite the variables are in the weather and trying to model it is far from accurate. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 Gfs goes north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 LOT's thoughts. it has been awhile since we seen over 4 in a storm. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 The 6z NAM went north and cut qpf in half from 00z. 6z 3k nam went so far north that the areas shown by the NWS to be in the heaviest band get virtually nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 well i sure hope the NAM is the northerly outlier, which is usually the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 Even with the northern shift, the NAM still has 8.4" for Cedar Rapids and 5.7" for Iowa City. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020412/039/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2018 Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020412/039/snku_acc.us_mw.pngTo believe, or not to believe...that is the question...at least its back to reality with the snow fall amounts instead of painting those 12"+ totals last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 4, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2018 It really is hard to trust the NAM. The RGEM will be out shortly. I have a lot more faith in that model. Let’s see what it says. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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