Tom Posted February 10, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2018 18z NAM... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018021018/027/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 10, 2018 Report Share Posted February 10, 2018 so are we thinking this might over perform tonight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 10, 2018 Report Share Posted February 10, 2018 For anyone who wants a little information on Lake Effect http://michiganltap.org/system/files/WorkshopPresentations/C5-Keysor.pdfSometimes Lake Huron provides a lake effect. Considering how small the lake is, it can do the trick. Pretty amazing. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 I see the 18z NAM totally dried out eastern Iowa, and the last few HRRR runs have suddenly dried out this area as well. It's certainly not going to be like last night with the heavy weenie band. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Radar trends in C IL look good...00z NAM coming in wetter for Chitown... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 I wonder if the difference between the 12z and 18z NAM qpf was due to lack of weather balloon input? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 I wonder if the difference between the 12z and 18z NAM qpf was due to lack of weather balloon input?Most likely...personally, it didn’t fit trends among the models... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Radar trends in C IL look good...00z NAM co hitming in wetter for Chitown...Also wetter for MKE. depending on what the other 0z models show, we may be added to the WWA. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Despite drying out earlier, all models have come back, giving the CR area 2." So I'm gonna meet both ends in the middle and expect 1" 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Despite drying out earlier, all models have come back, giving the CR area 2." So I'm gonna meet both ends in the middle and expect 1"Don't expect much. Coming from someone who's experiencing it right now. Everything is REALLY South. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 The HRRR this evening has trended toward a decent band setting up from sw IA through CR/IC. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Don't expect much. Coming from someone who's experiencing it right now. Everything is REALLY South.It may be stretch for someone even south of you to get the 2-4”. Looking like it’s drying up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 The HRRR this evening has trended toward a decent band setting up from sw IA through CR/IC.You should see the RAP lol Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 It may be stretch for someone even south of you to get the 2-4”. Looking like it’s drying up.Southwest of me into KS likely ended up getting the highest totals from this. Major screwup by the models. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 The stuff in Illinois has a connective look to it almost. Chicago could really do well again tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 0z NAM says its over 4 Nebraska. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 HRRR is showing a decent amount of precipitation striking SEMI tomorrow. South of I-69 and north of M-59 will be jackpot. Could see some real high, surprised totals. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 0z NAM says its over 4 Nebraska. Powerful and devastating "Second Wave". I shall remember it always... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 I think this got lost in the paperwork: The fact that the so-called "2nd Storm" is proving to be far, far weaker than every model had it progged to be is hardly surprising from a meteorological perspective. It is very, very rare to have two consecutive powerful storms within a short time frame. This is because the earth's energy field is in equilibrium; and hence the first storm will ALWAYS rob the energy that the second was supposed to tap. The atmosphere always needs a period to settle down after undergoing the convulsion a powerful storm inflicts upon it. There is only so much energy to go around. Thus you will almost never see two big storms...one right after the other...inside of 5 short days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Major screwup by the models. It was a very long lead time for them. In some cases; the snow hadn't even started... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 It’s a fine snow but coming down hard right now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 aww hell...in the HRRR i trust come on north baby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 HRRR/RAP is sure gung-ho with the snow later tonight. I'm honestly not sure where the snow is coming from. Keeping my expected snow at 1" Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 The HRRR keeps getting wetter with the focused band up through CR/IC, although it may be a bit too aggressive because nothing is reaching the ground here, yet. Radar is showing a real nice band on the southeast edge, though, aimed at IC. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Radar shows a nice band of snow right on top of me. But nothing is reaching the ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Snow beginning to fall here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Weird cuz I'm on the northern edge with light radar returns but I'm getting snowfall..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Snowing here now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Snow at ORD has been running about an inch per hour the last couple hours. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Just measured about 2.4"...it must have been coming down very hard a couple hours ago when those heavier returns came through. Looks like a bit of a lull is approaching from the south. From the looks of it, this system went farther north than previous forecasts. The 00z Euro came in really juicy. Radar trends don't look good for S MI and DTX area... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 MKE has been doing pretty good with this system...I think they should have at least 2-3" down so far and more to come...WWA's have been expanded up into Sheboygan... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Impressive LOT update...#thundersnow Another active early morning across the area, which has been thenorm for almost a week and a half, as it`s now a record-tyingninth straight day with measurable snow in Chicago. Main changesearly this morning were to hit the heavier snow mention prior todaybreak and increase snowfall amounts in an axis along/just northof I-80. Also moved north the freezing rain threat to roughlyPontiac to Valparaiso per observational trends.Axis of moderate to heavy snow across the central CWA (roughlyalong and north of I-80 and across Chicago) has brought sporadic1/4SM visibility and multiple one inch plus hourly rates observed.Even a couple reports of thundersnow in the southwest suburbswere relayed to us. Regional radar imagery has indicatedconvective/showery echoes racing north into the heavier snow axis,and envision this lasting through 4 maybe 5 am. After that point,the 850mb trough passes and the moisture and instability feedease. So snowfall totals through daybreak look to be on the orderof 2-5 inches north of I-80, with widespread snow covered roads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 My Grid now calls for 4-6"...hoping for the radar to fill back in later this morning...#overperformer 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Dropped off my parents at the airport and the snow has practically let up over there, however, just a 10 min ride up the street to my place and its pounding...razor sharp cut-off.... http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20180211.1125.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 I’d say we have at least two inches, maybe a bit more. Certainly caught me off guard when I looked out the window this morning. What a week! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 Tacked on another 0.8" bringing my total up to 3.2"...still snowing moderately...hope to score 4" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 6:00am totals: 6AM: Official numbers from the 's: 3.2" CHI-O'Hare 3.5" CHI-Midway 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 I’d say we are up to 3 here, I think I underestimated my last check - still snowing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 The NAM did well with the placement of the sharp cut-off of the snow on the southern edge, esp across MI.... 00z NAM... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018021100/030/snku_acc.us_mw.png 00z GFS... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021100/030/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 11, 2018 Report Share Posted February 11, 2018 I took a few measurements outside my front door and averaged 2.5” overnight. That brings the weekly total to around 10” or maybe slightly more. I didn’t do as good a job of measuring as I would’ve liked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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