April Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Wind storm gone

Can’t buy a good windstorm around here anymore.

[Phil]

I’m sure this is what will be blamed when we have another hot summer.

Nah, limited shelf life. If this was a +QBO/solar max year like 2014, though, you’d have a scorcher coming up.

 

With -QBO/solar minimum, it’s not a healthy line of poleward communication. This isn’t your typical -QBO seasonality either..it hasn’t flipped @ 50mb yet, and the boreal Spring months are the crucial ones for ENSO preconditioning. We’ll flip easterly at/below 50mb sometime in the June-September timeframe, which isn’t the ideal timeframe if you want a Niño, IMO.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Upgraded to a warning now down here.

[Jesse]

[MossMan]

[Jesse]

It’s all about the preconditioning!

And flipping!

Sounds like the setup for a great workout routine. Maybe we can even score some of those heated/cooled weights.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty crazy pattern across the country at this very minute.

[tomas]

    http://cdn.tegna-media.com/king/weather/UWgusts.gif

[Phil]

[Phil]

The 12z GFS is picking up on the next -NAO event.

 

For giggles, here’s the d11-16 mean 500mb anomaly:

 

[Timmy Supercell]

I'm loving this. For just about the last day or so has been nearly consistently raining (mostly moderate rainfall, sometimes light), KLMT so far has recorded 1/2" rain since since yesterday. I think a little more at my place it seems like. I would estimate closer to 1" here. Spots in suburban K-Falls likely are over the 1" mark a bit. I also started getting rain earlier than KLMT yesterday, like since morning hours, not 3-4pm unlike them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm loving this. For just about the last day or so has been nearly consistently raining (mostly moderate rainfall, sometimes light), KLMT so far has recorded 1/2" rain since since yesterday. I think a little more at my place it seems like. I would estimate closer to 1" here. Spots in suburban K-Falls likely are over the 1" mark a bit. I also started getting rain earlier than KLMT yesterday, like since morning hours, not 3-4pm unlike them.

 

You guys really really need it down there. This sounds like almost a miracle.

[Jesse]

The 12z GFS is picking up on the next -NAO event.

 

For giggles, here’s the d11-16 mean 500mb anomaly:

 

That is a dead sexy pattern.

[TT-SEA]

60 and sunny here.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Loving that Medford radar showing the AR moving into N. California and extreme southern Oregon. Very warm partly sunny day here in Salem. Just had to go down to our storage unit here at work and worked up a good sweat moving some boxes around.

[Jesse]

Bizarre pattern across the country still there on day 10 of the 12z Euro. Strong, suppressed winter-like jet. What month is this again?

 

[Jesse]

60 here with light drizzle. Feels pretty humid out.

[Front Ranger]

Loving that Medford radar showing the AR moving into N. California and extreme southern Oregon. Very warm partly sunny day here in Salem. Just had to go down to our storage unit here at work and worked up a good sweat moving some boxes around.

This almost approaches Tim's story about how he and wifey were so warm in 55 degree sunshine on their deck, she removed her sweater.

[TT-SEA]

This almost approaches Tim's story about how he and wifey were so warm in 55 degree sunshine on their deck, she removed her sweater.

 

Sweatshirt.   And it was very warm that day on the deck.   Today as well.  

[TT-SEA]

Bizarre pattern across the country still there on day 10 of the 12z Euro. Strong, suppressed winter-like jet. What month is this again?

 

55D4E621-5B08-4A49-ACD0-6E9CC6993B3C.png

 

Actually so suppressed that its pretty nice up here on the surface map for the same time frame... partly sunny and around 60.

[TT-SEA]

Monday morning... 32 degrees.

 

 

 

Friday afternoon... 62 degrees.

 

[Jesse]

Actually so suppressed that its pretty nice up here on the surface map for the same time frame... partly sunny and around 60.

 

Lock it in.

[TT-SEA]

Lock it in.

 

 

No... but I will be cheering for maximum suppression.   

[Jesse]

No... but I will be cheering for maximum suppression.

Same. Would be cool if a late season chunk of the PV could make it in here.

[Dave]

I suppose the consensus here is that the HWW will not verify? If we get winds to 50+, a decent number of trees will come down.  Ground is pretty saturated.

 

Maybe the HWW was just a late season hail mary for those wind lovin pdx mets.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 65 in North Bend and 64 here now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I suppose the consensus here is that the HWW will not verify? If we get winds to 50+, a decent number of trees will come down. Ground is pretty saturated.

 

Maybe the HWW was just a late season hail mary for those wind lovin pdx mets.

I think it may down here. Nelsen seems to think so.

[TT-SEA]

21 degrees and full sunshine with a NW wind gusting to 31 mph at 3 p.m. in the afternoon in April in Minneapolis right now.   

 

That is absolutely insane.    Normal high there now is in the 50s.

[Front Ranger]

21 degrees and full sunshine with a NW wind gusting to 31 mph at 3 p.m. in the afternoon in April in Minneapolis right now.

 

That is absolutely insane. Normal high there now is in the 50s.

27 here at 2:30. Also insane.

[Jesse]

21 degrees and full sunshine with a NW wind gusting to 31 mph at 3 p.m. in the afternoon in April in Minneapolis right now.

 

That is absolutely insane. Normal high there now is in the 50s.

Fargo is sitting at just 15 degrees, with NW winds gusting to 26 mph, as of 3pm central time. Pretty otherworldly for early April:

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=kfar&num=25&raw=0&banner=off

 

15 was also their midnight high, will be interesting to see how much they can surpass it by today, if at all. I don’t know their climate all that well but that has got to be close to some sort of late season benchmark.

[Phil]

The Sun has essentially reached minimum conditions already..well ahead of schedule. The latest statistical projections call for completely spotless months to start by late summer.

 

We should tally over 200 spotless days this year, projecting the ongoing curve forward.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I suppose the consensus here is that the HWW will not verify? If we get winds to 50+, a decent number of trees will come down. Ground is pretty saturated.

 

Maybe the HWW was just a late season hail mary for those wind lovin pdx mets.

The HWW will verify. It's easier for the strong winds to mix down to the surface in April and you also have to factor in the time of day which will be during peak heating. The Eugene area will likely see gusts 55 to 65 mph IMHO. Your right trees should get toppled due to the saturated ground. Tomorrow is going to be a mess.

[stuffradio]

It's 60F here now. Crazy. Not sunny though, and it's finally stopped raining.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The Sun has essentially reached minimum conditions already..well ahead of schedule. The latest statistical projections call for completely spotless months to start by late summer.

 

We should tally over 200 spotless days this year, projecting the ongoing curve forward.

 

 

One of the reasons why I'm thinking this upcoming winter might be the coldest and snowiest for the PNW in a very long time.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It's 60F here now. Crazy. Not sunny though, and it's finally stopped raining.

Currently 65F here in Hillsboro. Sun peaking out of the clouds.

[Phil]

One of the reasons why I'm thinking this upcoming winter might be the coldest and snowiest for the PNW in a very long time.

I thought you were predicting an El Niño?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I thought you were predicting an El Niño?

I'm thinking neutral to weak El Nino.

[Jesse]

One of the reasons why I'm thinking this upcoming winter might be the coldest and snowiest for the PNW in a very long time.

Followed by a summer even hotter than next one, then an even colder and snowier winter after that.

 

Eventually we will just turn into Mars.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Followed by a summer even hotter than next one, then an even colder and snowier winter after that.

 

Eventually we will just turn into Mars.

You crack me up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kind of excited about convective possibilities.