April Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

Of course we aren’t in a drought. Rainfall is below average down here, though.

 

I think a lot of us are just meeting hyperbole with hyperbole. This rainy season has basically been close to climo on a regional level, and this spring has been drier than normal so far, regionally. Nothing too crazy. But I think there are some who will complain if every spring is anything but a 2015 or 2016 repeat.

I know you didn't specifically mention me in this post, and I don't think you're directing it at me, but I did say that March was fairly average with decent periods. As long as in the summer we're getting temps around 75-80F that's fine. Some days up to 86 would be preferred for my warmer loving crops like Corn would be nice too, but it's not like I'm looking for lots of 90F+ days. I might even prefer some sprinkles every few weeks in the summer too so I don't have a dust storm every time I try to rototill.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This must be what the reaction to panicking looks like.

 

Not half as insane as his reaction to Trump being elected. 

 

I will give you credit, if you had a meltdown about it, it did not carry over to a weather forum...

[TT-SEA]

This must be what the reaction to panicking looks like.

 

No... the facts do not support your serious concerns over a slightly drier start to 2018 which is already being washed away.    

 

I am not talking about SEA here.   I am talking about PDX.   

[Jesse]

I know you didn't specifically mention me in this post, and I don't think you're directing it at me, but I did say that March was fairly average with decent periods. As long as in the summer we're getting temps around 75-80F that's fine. Some days up to 86 would be preferred for my warmer loving crops like Corn would be nice too, but it's not like I'm looking for lots of 90F+ days. I might even prefer some sprinkles every few weeks in the summer too so I don't have a dust storm every time I try to rototill.

We all probably agree on a lot of things more than we realize.

[Jesse]

Not half as insane as his reaction to Trump being elected.

 

I will give you credit, if you had a meltdown about it, it did not carry over to a weather forum...

I was strangely calm.

[TT-SEA]

Not half as insane as his reaction to Trump being elected. 

 

I will give you credit, if you had a meltdown about it, it did not carry over to a weather forum...

 

 

I said I might even vote for him in 2020 if the economy is rolling along and the border is secured.    I will just ignore his goofy behavior.   

[TT-SEA]

Andrew dragged politics into the discussion because there is no reasonable rebuttal to this:

 

Portland rainfall

2014   +4.08 inches

2015   +4.37 inches

2016   +7.32 inches

2017   +9.77 inches

 

[Deweydog]

Stay safe out there today everybody!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Leafing update. The alders appear ready to leaf in the next 1-2 weeks. Big news.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You called Trump "scum" a couple weeks ago... look it up.   I feel the same way about the man.  

 

Andrew dragged politics into the discussion because there is no reasonable rebuttal to this:

 

Portland rainfall

2014   +4.08 inches

2015   +4.37 inches

2016   +7.32 inches

2017   +9.77 inches

 

 

How about Eugene? 2013-present?

[TT-SEA]

Leafing update. The alders appear ready to leaf in the next 1-2 weeks. Big news.

 

The alders are officially leafing out here.

 

Those long brown buds they have are all over the ground this week and the leaves have emerged and the trees looks green now from a distance.

[TT-SEA]

How about Eugene? 2013-present?

 

Probably really dry.   

 

So is CA.   

 

I can't worry about the whole world!     I had to use Jesse's home station for the discussion since he jokingly said that there is now a drought from Seattle southward.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably really dry.   

 

So is CA.   

 

I can't worry about the whole world!     I had to use Jesse's home station for the discussion since he jokingly said that there is now a drought from Seattle southward.    

 

I'll tabulate my stats later. 

[TT-SEA]

How about Eugene? 2013-present?

 

Salem rainfall

 

2014 +1.89

2015 +1.00

2016 +7.34

2017 +11.24

 

Over 18 inches above normal since the start of 2016. And you are so worried about a slightly drier than normal start to 2018?

 

Salem will likely be above normal for 2018 later this week.

 

Things are getting scary down there. I pray for you during this severe drought.

 

I think we also determined the Eugene averages are messed up and their departures are not realistic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem rainfall

 

2014 +1.89

2015 +1.00

2016 +7.34

2017 +11.24

 

Over 18 inches above normal since the start of 2016. And you are so worried about a slightly drier than normal start to 2018?

 

Salem will likely be above normal for 2018 later this week.

 

Things are getting scary down there. I pray for you during this severe drought.

 

I think we also determined the Eugene averages are messed up and their departures are not realistic.

 

One thing to remember is that snow pack in Oregon has not been very good over the past several years, last year nothwithstanding. A lot of these rains have been warm AR events.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My January-March precip was 22.37". That is about 6" below normal. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I will point out the N. Oregon Cascades are going to get hammered with snow tonight and tomorrow. Great news. Above 4,000' there should be 1-2' of snow. 

 

Looks like 2-3" of rain here in the next 36 hours. 

 

Looks like another big Cascade snow dump toward the end of the work week. 

 

We did have some heavy warm rain last night, but it was not prolonged. Jesse's worst fears thankfully were not realized.

[TT-SEA]

One thing to remember is that snow pack in Oregon has not been very good over the past several years, last year nothwithstanding. A lot of these rains have been warm AR events.

Statistically speaking... most of the region is due for a couple drier than normal years. Particularly after 2016 and 2017.

 

Does not mean it will happen... but that is the reality from a statistical perspective.

 

Probably some cooler than normal years as well.

[Jesse]

I will point out the N. Oregon Cascades are going to get hammered with snow tonight and tomorrow. Great news. Above 4,000' there should be 1-2' of snow.

 

Looks like 2-3" of rain here in the next 36 hours.

 

Looks like another big Cascade snow dump toward the end of the work week.

 

We did have some heavy warm rain last night, but it was not prolonged. Jesse's worst fears thankfully were not realized.

Yeah, the warm rains were definitely short lived, and now we look to go into a blockbuster April snow pattern.

 

Mount Hood snotel site only lost a half inch of SWE the last few days. They are still near their season (to date) peak of 45”. Which is about 10-15” below average but there is still time to make it up.

[TT-SEA]

Water is just roaring off our ridge right now. So loud out there. This is much more common in November... pretty rare in April.

[Jesse]

Statistically speaking... most of the region is due for a couple drier than normal years. Particularly after 2016 and 2017.

 

Does not mean it will happen... but that is the reality from a statistical perspective.

 

Probably some cooler than normal years as well.

Agreed. Although I think the original discussion was about this spring, which really hasn’t been too bad, pretty average if not on the dry side. So it’s especially surprising when a lifelong native is having so much trouble with it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah, the warm rains were definitely short lived, and now we look to go into a blockbuster April snow pattern.

 

Mount Hood snotel site only lost a half inch of SWE the last few days. They are still near their season (to date) peak of 45”. Which is about 10-15” below average but there is still time to make it up.

 

No sign of a real warm pattern on the models either. The long range GFS shows a drier pattern in the long range, but looks relatively cool. Looks like a good set up for some frost here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some good sun breaks developing now! Going to prime that atmosphere for some afternoon convection hopefully!

[ShawniganLake]

One thing to remember is that snow pack in Oregon has not been very good over the past several years, last year nothwithstanding. A lot of these rains have been warm AR events.

I know locally speaking, winter snowpack is more important than rainfall amounts when it comes to water supply. After November the water is just spilling into the river anyways. It’s the May and June snow melt that keeps the reservoir levels up through the summer.

[MossMan]

I love this forum!!

Currently cloudy with a slight breeze...stay safe everyone!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Winds starting to pick up now in the Southern Willamette Valley. Eugene just gusted to 49 mph at 10:54am.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's currently sunny but we had a thunderstorm roll past this morning. Just missed the Saanich Peninsula but there were several lightning strikes to the NE.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winds starting to pick up now in the Southern Willamette Valley. Eugene just gusted to 49 mph at 10:54am.

 

Intermittent gusts here. 

[TT-SEA]

Took a walk around the yard during the sun breaks... flowering plum and magnolia below.    These are actually a little late at this point but they seem to like warmer weather.  

 

 

[FroYoBro]

It has dropped about 10 degrees here in the last hour. Went from sunbreaks to rain and gusts between 30-40. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Intermittent gusts here.

Gusts should start getting stronger and peak in the next few hours.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My Dad just texted me and said he's getting hail at his place. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Eerie dead calm here... I am scared   it is "a quiet place"

[TT-SEA]

Eerie dead calm here... I am scared   it is "a quiet place"

 

Dead calm here too.   We saw that movie on Thursday night.   

[TT-SEA]

My Dad just texted me and said he's getting hail at his place. 

 

Well... that is extremely rare for April.   

[Blizzard777]

Lightning map : Port Orford area and one strike just east of Portland

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lightning map : Port Orford area and one strike just east of Portland

 

Just saw a post on fb about lightning out by PDX.

[seattleweatherguy]

Still calm here maybe it ain't coming

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still calm here maybe it ain't coming

 

Been pretty underwhelming from a wind perspective here so far.

[Phil]

I am using PDX stats! Can't get much closer to your heart.

 

Portland rainfall

2014 +4.08 inches

2015 +4.37 inches

2016 +7.32 inches

2017 +9.77 inches

 

Portland is over 25 inches above normal for rainfall since 2014 without a single drier than normal year.

 

2018 was a little drier than normal to start... but will be about normal later this week.

 

Those are just the facts for Portland.

 

Statistically speaking... you don't think drier than normal is ahead? You must not really know how averages work. Probably colder than normal as well.

The hot, ridgy summers of recent years probably nullified any water-table increases from the rainy winters. Those hot, sunny days really accelerate the evaporation rate. It’s more complicated than adding/subtracting a few numbers.

 

Your climate seems to have a long term, seasonal yin/yang aspect to it. It’s pretty balanced. For example, in the paleoclimate record, warm periods like the MWP featured lots of winter rainfall, but very warm/dry summers. Cold climate periods, on the other hand, featured the opposite tendency, with much colder/drier winters, but wetter summers. So the effects on the water table and ecosystems were somewhat softened.