Money Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 If the NW/strong solutions verify this will catch a lot of people off-guard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Still not buying it...but let's see what the GFS says! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 this is way dif from other models. what is going to happen?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 My god the 0Z NAM... Near 5 inches per hour a one point lol. its probably off it's rocker, but what a run... Probably. Like Dominic says it is goes any further north there will be mixing issues. Really close at 800mb already. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 If the NW/strong solutions verify this will catch a lot of people off-guard No doubt about that. Just showed 12+" for Chicago and their not even under a watch. Would probably not be a good situation.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 I can't see Chicago getting 14 inches from this. NAM is likely overdoing it somewhat. Don't tell me I get an inch here and Chicago gets 16....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 16-18 showing up for Chicago at HR 39 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 watch the GFS go south of the 18Z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 watch the GFS go south of the 18Z Isn't that what we should expect? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Yes a hot run. Smacked with intial band and then deformation band. You bet to some lake enhancement comes into play if this happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Not that it means much, but RAP/NAM identical through HR 18 with each other. RAP is about .5 mb stronger or so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Like I said, during cycle 1 & 2 the storm cut through N IL but I don't see it going much farther north due to the PV up in Canada. However, if GFS comes in much farther NW then we may have a problem here in N IL. I think if tonight's 00z run from the NAM comes true, any mixing problems from I-80 on north will be overcome from the dynamics of this system and quickly change over to snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Gonna be alot of cars piling up like a cup of vanilla and rasins on lakeshore drive if this verifies... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 uhhhh.....nice donut hole for my area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Detroit 2 feet! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Isn't that what we should expect?of the 18Z GFS I meant... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Money, I'd take half the totals the NAM is showing right now and be happy! BTW, from the warmth over the weekend, today and even tomorrow I'd expect Lake Michigan to open up a lot more and create more open waters for LehS and backside LES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Yes a hot run. Smacked with intial band and then deformation band. You bet to some lake enhancement comes into play if this happens. Delta Ts have to be at least 11°C. Right now I'm not seeing that. Maybe 8°C. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Detroit 2 feet! and still snowing lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Let's break the all time record says the NAM Chicago!!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Dom, this would be the most severe winter storm this year and we can probably reach 1st place if this storm verifies like the NAM! Gotta say, NAM did a great job with the NYE storm and Jan 4-5th storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Where's the low currently? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Ah now the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Where's the low currently? Siberia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Siberia. Lol, it's over the Pacific right? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Gonna be alot of cars piling up like a cup of vanilla and rasins on lakeshore drive if this verifies...That is a 18"+ storm for me.... Lets go NAM...Lets go NAM........Nam saids, not only are we gonna break the record, but we are going to SMASHED the record big time with feet of snow. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 That is a 18"+ storm for me.... Let's make it 30 inches next run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 I guess were too close for the DGEX right!? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 I can't imagine what 4k NAM will look like. Caplain micro earlier was general 1-3 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Lol, it's over the Pacific right? nah its on land somewhere lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 So sexy!!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Hey guys, just wanna let you know, it's pretty warm outside right now... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 0z NAM is insane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 There are going to be a lot of convective bands with Thundersnow in this system... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 There is still time for this to go South and no way Chicago gets 16-18 inches. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Blizzard... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 What are the chances it can gain support? I just hope I can keep my dental appointment that morning. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
6789 Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Lol I laughed so hard East Dubzz! Anyways, I'm not going to get to excited about this storm yet! But, oh my god! If this verified and we broke the record I would s**t myself! Lol seems ridiculous! But, I'm worried about mixing issues, my heart would be a little crushed if this went to far north and we got rain.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 whats the chance of this going another 100 miles NW? LOL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKEstorm Posted March 11, 2014 Report Share Posted March 11, 2014 Still not buying it...but let's see what the GFS says! Same here! But as Tom said, this storm has got the fuel it needs to potentially be be big! A classic battle of the seasons! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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