April 13th-16th Spring Bowling Ball Powerhouse

[CentralNebWeather]

Blizzard warnings being issued now for parts of our area. Central Neb......your golden my man! 

 

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY...

 

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Winds gusting as high as 55

to 60 mph will cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow.

Significant drifting of the snow is likely. Total snow

accumulations of 3 to 7 inches, with localized amounts up to 8

inches, are expected.

 

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central and south

central Nebraska.

 

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM CDT

SATURDAY...

 

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Winds gusting as high as 55

mph will cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant

drifting of the snow is likely. Total snow accumulations of 5 to

8 inches are expected with the highest amounts generally north

of Interstate 80.

 

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Nebraska.

 

* WHEN...From 1 PM Friday to 7 PM CDT Saturday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You're the man, you just beat me to this.  I just finished teaching my morning classes and am going to lunch.  I checked NWS Hastings and this showed up.  Looks like not much sleep tomorrow night into Saturday morning as I watch this. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Blizzard Warning - April 13th and 14th.  How about that?

[CentralNebWeather]

55-60 MPH wind gusts.  Every time I check, the wind speeds are forecasted higher than before.

[Tom]

Let’s make history! Ahhh, I love this stuff...meantime, I’m laying out on my deck in shorts and no shirt soaking up some much welcomed Vitamin D! 71F with full sun never felt better!

[St Paul Storm]

Let’s make history! Ahhh, I love this stuff...meantime, I’m laying out on my deck in shorts and no shirt soaking up some much welcomed Vitamin D! 71F with full sun never felt better!

Lol....that’s awesome. Enjoy that!

[CentralNebWeather]

Let’s make history! Ahhh, I love this stuff...meantime, I’m laying out on my deck in shorts and no shirt soaking up some much welcomed Vitamin D! 71F with full sun never felt better!

This could be an historic storm for this late in the season in Central Nebraska.  In my lifetime, the worst storm that I can remember in April was a blizzard that hit March 30-April 1, 1987.  I was a young kid but remember drifts over our garage and drifts in the country that stranded semis.  Last year we actually had a snowstorm April 30- May 1 and had a snow day May 1st.  Latest snow day that I ever remember in my 20 years of teaching.  

[St Paul Storm]

Paul Douglas on his twitter feed says he’s not sure whether to laugh or cry, and that Minnesotans earn their Spring. The concern is that if these amounts verify Spring won’t start until May. Exactly zero lakes are ice free in the entire state right now. That’s amazing.

[gosaints]

If we play our cards right some areas could see flood warnings with winter storm warnings on top of them

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow gem is really toying with me. 3 here 8 nw part of our county lol

[gosaints]

GEFS with subtle ticks south since 0z

[St Paul Storm]

GEFS with subtle ticks south since 0z

Visuals

[NEJeremy]

Boom! There's the upgrade on the SPC. Mentions strong tornadoes possible in southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

Eastern NE/IA to northern and western MO/eastern KS...
The Enhanced and Slight risk area, including the significant severe
potential, have been expanded north across northern MO, more of IA
and eastern NE, given run-to-run consistencies and confidence of the
ECMWF and NAM continuing to show the warm front moving into southern
IA before the start of D2.

An increasingly favorable environment for severe storms is forecast
to evolve during the day Friday, across the northern extent of the
warm sector, ahead of the advancing cold front. As the deepening
upper system shifts slowly eastward, a very strong deep-layer wind
field will overspread the evolving warm sector. Diurnal heating
combined with low-level moistening beneath cooling mid-level
temperatures will result in moderate destabilization during the
afternoon, with MUCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg from eastern KS to
southeast NE and southern IA.

Operational and CAM output suggest discrete storm development will
occur by late afternoon near the southeast NE low and southward
along the cold front and dry line. These storms will track quickly
to the north-northeast as strengthening deep-layer wind fields
spread across the warm sector. The environment will support
strong/rotating updrafts, with very large hail and a tornado threat
expected. A strong tornado or two will be possible, especially
across parts of northern MO into southern IA. Farther north, very
steep midlevel lapse rates associated with the EML suggest hail,
some very large, will be possible north of the warm front, with a
marginal risk extending into far southern MN. 

[gosaints]

The EURO is very GGEMish

[Minny_Weather]

Boom! There's the upgrade on the SPC. Mentions strong tornadoes possible in southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

Eastern NE/IA to northern and western MO/eastern KS...

The Enhanced and Slight risk area, including the significant severe

potential, have been expanded north across northern MO, more of IA

and eastern NE, given run-to-run consistencies and confidence of the

ECMWF and NAM continuing to show the warm front moving into southern

IA before the start of D2.

 

An increasingly favorable environment for severe storms is forecast

to evolve during the day Friday, across the northern extent of the

warm sector, ahead of the advancing cold front. As the deepening

upper system shifts slowly eastward, a very strong deep-layer wind

field will overspread the evolving warm sector. Diurnal heating

combined with low-level moistening beneath cooling mid-level

temperatures will result in moderate destabilization during the

afternoon, with MUCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg from eastern KS to

southeast NE and southern IA.

 

Operational and CAM output suggest discrete storm development will

occur by late afternoon near the southeast NE low and southward

along the cold front and dry line. These storms will track quickly

to the north-northeast as strengthening deep-layer wind fields

spread across the warm sector. The environment will support

strong/rotating updrafts, with very large hail and a tornado threat

expected. A strong tornado or two will be possible, especially

across parts of northern MO into southern IA. Farther north, very

steep midlevel lapse rates associated with the EML suggest hail,

some very large, will be possible north of the warm front, with a

marginal risk extending into far southern MN.

That's more like it. I'm gonna start off around Pacific Jct, IA then move accordingly. Don't wanna stray too far from home tomorrow.

[gosaints]

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018041212/usa/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20180416-0300z.html

[St Paul Storm]

Welp, I’m convinced.

[Money]

8-12 here on the euro

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018041212/wisconsin/snow-depth-in/20180416-0900z.html

 

24+ for just north of GB

[Stormgeek]

Welp, I’m convinced.

That we are going to get pummeled or that this is going to keep sliding south?

 

Edit: Just a small trend I have seen with the sampled runs coming in. Slight adjustments south.

[Money]

gosaints what you think about that secondary low?

[gosaints]

gosaints what you think about that secondary low?

You are looking better that's for sure.

 

Heck if the Euro is right the primary isn't far from delivering.

[Hawkeye]

The euro now has the warm front's northward progress coming to a halt right over Cedar Rapids, so the 70s may be a goner for me.  The farther-south front also means more rain is possible... 2+ inches if the euro is right.

[Grizzcoat]

There is a shift in the Euro South from the 0Z mainly evident in IA-- if it verifies , it would be a significant change for the going NWS point and clicks here in C.IA 

 

LAst night run

 

[Tom]

The euro now has the warm front's northward progress coming to a halt right over Cedar Rapids, so the 70s may be a goner for me. The farther-south front also means more rain is possible... 2+ inches if the euro is right.

Pretty much how the 12z NAM looked?

[Tom]

There is a shift in the Euro South from the 0Z mainly evident in IA-- if it verifies , it would be a significant change for the going NWS point and clicks here in C.IA

 

LAst night run

 

 

This mornings run-

The Yoopers are in for a doozy of a lifetime in the U.P. if that forecast verifies. My goodness. What’s interesting, is that surface temps hold in the 20’s so there will prob be some fluff factor.

[Snowshoe]

Could get real interesting around Green Bay.

 

 

NWS GRB...

Ice shoves and localized flooding may occur along the shoreline
of the Bay of Green Bay. The ice and strong northeast winds may
impede the flow of water from the Fox River into the Bay of Green
Bay, leading to rising water levels near the mouth of the Fox
River.

[St Paul Storm]

That we are going to get pummeled or that this is going to keep sliding south?

Edit: Just a small trend I have seen with the sampled runs coming in. Slight adjustments south.

I see a slight southward trend today, but almost every model smacks us hard. We’re 24 hours from the start of precip. Not saying things can’t change drastically before then, but the models for the most part have been pretty steady for several days. 12z Euro is still a bomb.

[NEJeremy]

That's more like it. I'm gonna start off around Pacific Jct, IA then move accordingly. Don't wanna stray too far from home tomorrow.

Yeah I figured around Nebraska City for myself and then go wherever the storms are!

[Grizzcoat]

Not saying it's going to happen, but if the Euro verifies -, and the snow can actually stick after being so warm ( a lot of ifs) this would be like the 10 time C.IA would be put in a WWA after nothing and most thinking it was all N. It's been the story here all winter. 

[Hawkeye]

Pretty much how the 12z NAM looked?

 

The NAM only gets the front up to Iowa City.

[gosaints]

Not saying it's going to happen, but if the Euro verifies -, and the snow can actually stick after being so warm ( a lot of ifs) this would be like the 10 time C.IA would be put in a WWA after nothing and most thinking it was all N. It's been the story here all winter.

Agree it been a strange winter on the southern flanks of storms. We have been on the southern edge of most systems on done quite well

[gabel23]

Agree it been a strange winter on the southern flanks of storms. We have been on the southern edge of most systems on done quite well

 

 

Not saying it's going to happen, but if the Euro verifies -, and the snow can actually stick after being so warm ( a lot of ifs) this would be like the 10 time C.IA would be put in a WWA after nothing and most thinking it was all N. It's been the story here all winter. 

Same for me here; I was on the edge of getting really slammed to just grazed. I would say half of those times turned into a warning (Blizzard or just Winter Storm). 

[bud2380]

Closer view of the Euro in Iowa.  

 

[CentralNebWeather]

I see now NWS Goodland KS. has upgraded to a Blizzard Warning.  This thing is going to be a beast covering a large section of real estate.

[jaster220]

If we play our cards right some areas could see flood warnings with winter storm warnings on top of them

 

Do you have a forwarding address for my flood card? Would love to send it to ya

 

The Yoopers are in for a doozy of a lifetime in the U.P. if that forecast verifies. My goodness. What’s interesting, is that surface temps hold in the 20’s so there will prob be some fluff factor.

 

What's interesting is NO WATCH      

[jaster220]

GRR has added a few counties to the south end of their watch. This is mostly for ice. Latest GEM majorly trolling SWMI tho with that secondary threat. Believe it when I'm shoveling the goods, not a minute before 

[gabel23]

I see now NWS Goodland KS. has upgraded to a Blizzard Warning.  This thing is going to be a beast covering a large section of real estate.

Looks like Hastings is gonna hold off with the rest of the watch area until tonight or tomorrow. Guessing they are trying to decide WWA or Blizzard Warning....

[St Paul Storm]

18z NAM stronger thru hr 24.....and then comparable to 12z afterwards.

[Money]

18z NAM stronger thru hr 24.

Farther south and weaker by hr 33

[St Paul Storm]

Farther south and weaker by hr 33

You’re too quick.

[Money]

Another shift south on the nam