May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

This is actually true... particularly up here.   Or maybe our average temperature and average annual rainfall just jumped significantly for good.   As in the average annual rainfall at SEA went from 38 inches to 45 or 46 inches.

 

Milder, wetter winters will do that. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We had a drier than average winter down here. So I don't think we are "due" for a dry one. Dec/Jan the previous winter were somewhat dry too. If anything we are due for a wetter December/January period. Probably are due for a bit drier/cooler fall. 

[TT-SEA]

We had a drier than average winter down here. So I don't think we are "due" for a dry one. Dec/Jan the previous winter were somewhat dry too. If anything we are due for a wetter December/January period. Probably are due for a bit drier/cooler fall. 

 

 

We are due for a drier than normal year up here.    That is just a fact.   

 

If averages mean anything then we are due for a cooler and drier than normal period for a few years.   

 

 

Rainfall departures at SEA... which include the wettest Apr-Aug ever in 2014 and one of the wettest Augusts ever in 2015.    And the wettest rainy season in history in 2015-16 only to be beat one year later in 2016-17.

 

2014   +9.65

2015   +5.98

2016   +6.33

2017   +9.02

[Jesse]

We are due for a drier than normal year up here. That is just a fact.

 

If averages mean anything then we are due for a cooler and drier than normal period for a few years.

 

 

Rainfall departures at SEA... which include the wettest April - August ever in 2014 and one of the wettest Augusts ever in 2015. And the wettest rainy season in history in 2015-16 only be beat one year later in 2016-17.

2014 +9.65

2015 +5.98

2016 +6.33

2017 +9.02

You need to make the last few paragraphs your sig.

[TT-SEA]

You need to make the last few paragraphs your sig.

 

You could do the same thing with the temperature departures over that period.   

 

Maybe warm and wet is the new normal.

[Front Ranger]

We are due for a drier than normal year up here. That is just a fact.

 

If averages mean anything then we are due for a cooler and drier than normal period for a few years.

 

 

Rainfall departures at SEA... which include the wettest Apr-Aug ever in 2014 and one of the wettest Augusts ever in 2015. And the wettest rainy season in history in 2015-16 only to be beat one year later in 2016-17.

2014 +9.65

2015 +5.98

2016 +6.33

2017 +9.02

We've been over this plenty of times. The irony of the last few years is that despite the wet years overall, there were many exceptional dry periods as well...they just fell in the warm season, and so didn't effect the yearly departures as much as a handful of very wet months.

[Jesse]

Some improvement:

 

[TT-SEA]

We've been over this plenty of times. The irony of the last few years is that despite the wet years overall, there were many exceptional dry periods as well...they just fell in the warm season, and so didn't effect the yearly departures as much as a handful of very wet months.

 

 

Its been warm and wet for the last 4 years.   There have been dry periods and there have cold periods in that warm and wet 4-year period.  

 

But statistically... we are due for a cooler and drier than normal year.   A few of them actually.   

[Jesse]

You could do the same thing with the temperature departures over that period.

 

Maybe warm and wet is the new normal.

Difference being it has been warm overall in every season the last several years, whereas the wet weather has been focused on the cool side of the year when it is usually wet anyway. Lots of hot and dry warm seasons.

[Front Ranger]

It's looking like this 6 week mid April - end of May stretch will be one of the most climo impressive dry periods we've ever seen in the region.

 

Right up there with seeing two straight months in the summer with basically no precip in many locations - which also happened quite recently.

[TT-SEA]

It's looking like this 6 week mid April - end of May stretch will be one of the most climo impressive dry periods we've ever seen in the region.

 

Right up there with seeing two straight months in the summer with basically no precip in many locations - which also happened quite recently.

 

That says wet summer to me.  

[Jesse]

That says wet summer to me.  

 

Not gonna happen.

[TT-SEA]

Difference being it has been warm overall in every season the last several years, whereas the wet weather has been focused on the cool side of the year when it is usually wet anyway. Lots of hot and dry warm seasons.

 

The difference between a wet or dry July and August could be one day.  

 

It rained on basically 3 days in August of 2015 in the Seattle area and it was a top 5 wettest August.

[Front Ranger]

Its been warm and wet for the last 4 years. There have been dry periods and there have cold periods in that warm and wet 4-year period.

 

But statistically... we are due for a cooler and drier than normal year. A few of them actually.

Well, the region certainly wasn't due for an exceptional dry May.

 

The exceptionally dry periods have basically matched the exceptionally wet periods...due to seasonality, that will skew wet yearly.

 

A cool, wet summer could easily lead to a drier than normal year.

[TT-SEA]

Well, the region certainly wasn't due for an exceptional dry May.

 

The exceptionally dry periods have basically matched the exceptionally wet periods...due to seasonality, that will skew wet yearly.

 

A cool, wet summer could easily lead to a drier than normal year.

 

Absolutely... 1993 is a good example.

[Front Ranger]

The difference between a wet or dry July and August could be one day.

 

It rained on basically 3 days in August of 2015 in the Seattle area and it was a top 5 wettest August.

That's not normal. Look at the other top 5.

[Front Ranger]

Absolutely... 1993 is a good example.

Exactly. Careful what you wish for!

 

Don't you think most people would prefer a wetter than normal winter over a wetter than normal summer?

[TT-SEA]

Highs tomorrow... that is some seriously warm air all the way up to Hudson Bay. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Exactly. Careful what you wish for!

 

Don't you think most people would prefer a wetter than normal winter over a wetter than normal summer?

 

I am not wishing... just reporting mathematical realities when it comes to averages.

[Front Ranger]

I am not wishing... just reporting mathematical realities when it comes to averages.

Nah, there's been a clear narrative attached to those stats.

[TT-SEA]

Nah, there's been a clear narrative attached to those stats.

 

Yes... at times.

 

You brought it up tonight.   It would be like me telling Jesse that we are not due for colder than normal years.   We are.   Or our averages are going up fast and I don't believe that.  

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF has a period of troughing from Tuesday - Thursday of next week and still shows very little rain.  Even less than the 12Z run.

 

Also shows broad ridging and warm air building in later next week into the first weekend of June.    

[TT-SEA]

Strong signal for warmth out West and cool in the Midwest and NE in the 10-15 day period on the 00Z EPS after the trough in the middle of next week... like the operational run showed.

 

[Jesse]

Man Tim, it’s been the driest and warmest May on record and you are going to end up with a decent Memorial Day weekend. Now we have a couple little troughs coming and all you can do is focus on ridging in the 10-15 day range? Give it a rest already.

[TT-SEA]

Man Tim, it’s been the driest and warmest May on record and you are going to end up with a decent Memorial Day weekend. Now we have a couple little troughs coming and all you can do is focus on ridging in the 10-15 day range? Give it a rest already.

I will not. I am just reporting on what the models show. I posted troughy maps yesterday too. I am always looking for sunny periods in the models. Always! We just had a week of low clouds and drizzle here.

 

Plus we have been discussing early June for some time and whether we go into a troughy pattern long term or bounce back quickly. Time will tell.

[Farmboy]

Strong signal for warmth out West and cool in the Midwest and NE in the 10-15 day period on the 00Z EPS after the trough in the middle of next week... like the operational run showed.

 

 

 

Geesh, I posted a map from a frame late in the 18z gfs run yesterday suggesting possible ridging in the west and people jumped (one person in particular) jumped all over me for it.  So maybe the offshore ridge phases with the one over Colorado/Wyoming from the map I posted....?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Last night's 00z EURO EPS 15 day PNA forecast has a strong signal for troughing as we close out May.

 

[TT-SEA]

Last night's 00z EURO EPS 15 day PNA forecast has a strong signal for troughing as we close out May.

 

 

 

Yes... the troughing for the last couple days of May into the first couple days of June is pretty much a given now.   I am just starting to look beyond that to see if we go into a long term troughy pattern as Phil as been predicting.  

[Jesse]

Geesh, I posted a map from a frame late in the 18z gfs run yesterday suggesting possible ridging in the west and people jumped (one person in particular) jumped all over me for it. So maybe the offshore ridge phases with the one over Colorado/Wyoming from the map I posted....?

The map above and the map you posted show different patterns, which isn’t too surprising considering they are two different long range ensemble means on different models for different time frames.

[Geos]

Made it to 80 yesterday. 

 

Marine layer clouds fairly thick this morning. Even felt some light drizzle earlier.

 

[Farmboy]

The map above and the map you posted show different patterns, which isn’t too surprising considering they are two different long range ensemble means on different models for different time frames.

 

 

The map I posted wasn't an ensemble mean.  It was for a specific time, hr. 372, which would fall within the time frame of the Euro map that Tim posted (days 10-15)....

[Jesse]

The map I posted wasn't an ensemble mean. It was for a specific time, hr. 372, which would fall within the time frame of the Euro map that Tim posted (days 10-15)....

You posted the GEFS, which is the GFS ensemble mean.

 

Tim posted the EPS, which is the Euro ensemble mean. Tim’s map was the average of the day 10-15 EPS, whereas yours was a single frame from the GEFS at day 16.

[Farmboy]

You posted the GEFS, which is the GFS ensemble mean.

 

Tim posted the EPS, which is the Euro ensemble mean. Tim’s map was the average of the day 10-15 EPS, whereas yours was a single frame from the GEFS at day 16.

 

 

You're right, my bad...

[TT-SEA]

Made it to 80 yesterday. 

 

Marine layer clouds fairly thick this morning. Even felt some light drizzle earlier.

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/wfo/sew/vis.jpg

 

Never made it here... I can see the low clouds on top of Rattlesnake Ridge though.  

 

Sunny here from the start this morning.   Sometimes it starts sunny and the marine layer roars in about 8 or 9 a.m. on days like this but I think this push is pretty weak.

[Deweydog]

Today's cautionary tale:

 

Could be a warm up after things cool down.

[Farmboy]

:sipping more coffee::

[Jesse]

You're right, my bad...

This stuff is so far out there that you are going to see a ton of changes...especially on an ensemble mean, and especially if you are trying to compare said mean on two different models at range.

[Jesse]

Today's cautionary tale:

 

Could be a warm up after things cool down.

You are the koolest kid on the block.

[ShawniganLake]

Sunny morning but cooler today. Sitting in the low 60s currently

[Jesse]

Sunny morning but cooler today. Sitting in the low 60s currently

59 with a pretty thick marine layer here.