May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Geos]

Never made it here... I can see the low clouds on top of Rattlesnake Ridge though.  

 

Sunny here from the start this morning.   Sometimes it starts sunny and the marine layer roars in about 8 or 9 a.m. on days like this but I think this push is pretty weak.

 

Yeah you're right on the edge today. Top of Mount Si covered by the clouds.

 

http://146.129.248.180/northbend.html

[Deweydog]

You are the koolest kid on the block.

Even kooler when compared to recent warm anomalies!

[Jesse]

12z GFS is a little more agressive with the troughing through day 10.

[Front Ranger]

You are the koolest kid on the block.

 

And that's saying something, as this block is full of undeniably kool kids.

[Jesse]

It would be nice if the sharp ridge that apparently is on the long range EPS ends up offshore (retrogression). That is what the LR 12z GFS is hinting at.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

You are the koolest kid on the block.

As long as that block is centered at 150 deg W

[Front Ranger]

12z GFS is a little more agressive with the troughing through day 10.

 

CMC also troughier for days 7-8.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah you're right on the edge today. Top of Mount Si covered by the clouds.

 

http://146.129.248.180/northbend.html

 

 

It made a move inland but backing off again...

 

[Jesse]

As long as that block is centered at 150 deg W

 

Yes!

[Phil]

Not gonna happen.

FWIW, many of the JJA analogs I’m using are hinting at a hot/dry July and a cool/wet August (and/or September).

 

So IMO, if JJA winds up wetter than normal, I suspect August/September will be the culprit.

[Jesse]

FWIW, many of the JJA analogs I’m using are hinting at a hot/dry July and a cool/wet August (and/or September).

 

So IMO, if JJA winds up wetter than normal, I suspect August/September will be the culprit.

 

Maybe. It's almost impossible to imagine a cool and wet August.

[Phil]

Following what could be a troughy June (at least the first three weeks of the month), July looks like it could really blowtorch this year. At least until the last week of the month, assuming the 42 day MJO periodicity continues under the demise of westerly shear above the tropopause.

 

Intraseasonal forcing lines up perfectly for a heat ridge sometime between 7/5 and 7/20, +/- a week on either end.

[Front Ranger]

Following what could be a troughy June (at least the first three weeks of the month), July looks like it could really blowtorch this year. At least until the last week of the month, assuming the 42 day MJO periodicity continues under the demise of westerly shear above the tropopause.

 

Intraseasonal forcing lines up perfectly for a heat ridge sometime between 7/5 and 7/20, +/- a week on either end.

 

So it might get hot sometime in July.

 

- Dewey

[Phil]

Maybe. It's almost impossible to imagine a cool and wet August.

Yeah, because since 1995, we’ve been in the +AMO era with the +AMM existing in every Aug-Dec since then (with the correspondingly delayed ITCZ seasonality), and all but one of the matching analogs are from before 1995.

 

If the -AMM/-AMO cell remains intact into the Fall, then the cool/wet August idea is legitimate.

[Jesse]

Following what could be a troughy June (at least the first three weeks of the month), July looks like it could really blowtorch this year. At least until the last week of the month, assuming the 42 day MJO periodicity continues under the demise of westerly shear above the tropopause.

 

Intraseasonal forcing lines up perfectly for a heat ridge sometime between 7/5 and 7/20, +/- a week on either end.

 

 A hot July seems like a reasonable call at this point, following an averagish June (average is the new kool).

[Deweydog]

So it might get hot sometime in July.

 

- Dewey

...

 

Now I'm gonna get blamed for a hot July.

[Front Ranger]

A hot July seems like a reasonable call at this point, following an averagish June (average is the new kool).

And record-smashing is the new hot.

[Jesse]

And record-smashing is the new hot.

Record smashing heat is the new still slightly annoying level of cool, cloudy and vegetated.

[Phil]

A hot July seems like a reasonable call at this point, following an averagish June (average is the new kool).

Now watch July be an icebox, and August turn into a blast furnace. Lol.

[Jesse]

Now watch July be an icebox, and August turn into a blast furnace.

 

Most likely I will watch them both turn into blast furnaces.

[Deweydog]

Yuge Euro run coming up!

[Kayla]

The 00z EPS 850mb spaghetti chart is definitely NOT onboard for a below average start of June beyond the 1st. Only a couple members are actually below average at PDX.

[ShawniganLake]

If July is a blast furnace, then hopefully June is wet in the BC central interior, or it’s gonna get Smoky. So far the rainy season is a no show. A lot of fires burning up there already.

[Jesse]

The 00z EPS 850mb spaghetti chart is definitely NOT onboard for a below average start of June beyond the 1st. Only a couple members are actually below average at PDX.

Thanks Tim! This has already been well discussed.

[Jesse]

If July is a blast furnace, then hopefully June is wet in the BC central interior, or it’s gonna get Smoky. So far the rainy season is a no show. A lot of fires burning up there already.

Rooting for rain this time of year is just wrong...

[TT-SEA]

Rooting for rain this time of year is just wrong...

 

Someone is really edgy!   Like me when there is no sun for a week.  

[Jesse]

Someone is really edgy! Like me when there is no sun for a week.

Just insanely edgy.

[Deweydog]

Someone is really edgy! Like me when there is no sun for a week.

His path of annoyance is righteous. Yours is born of sinful indulgence. Repent.

[Jesse]

His path of annoyance is righteous. Yours is born of sinful indulgence. Repent.

Would be nice to get some rain.

[Deweydog]

Would be nice to get some rain.

f*****' A, Cotton.

 

Can't make it rain, though. At least not in the literal sense.

[Kayla]

Thanks Tim! This has already been well discussed.

 

Jeez...rough day??

[Front Ranger]

Record smashing heat is the new still slightly annoying level of cool, cloudy and vegetated.

 

Good point. But with the ongoing Fresnasacraphoenimentation of the PNW, there's hope.

[Front Ranger]

Jeez...rough day??

 

It's been a long spring.

[Kayla]

It's been a long spring.

 

It's almost over!!

[Jesse]

Jeez...rough day??

 

No...I apologize if I came off snappy. I have noticed you seem to relish the thought of us baking while you sit in your newly minted ice box though. Maybe I am just defensive.

[Deweydog]

Gonna be time for #earlyfallwatch and sun angle debates before you know it.

[Jesse]

Gonna be time for #earlyfallwatch and sun angle debates before you know it.

 

Is time flying for you this year? Sometimes that can make you feel like a bit of a drone.

[Kayla]

The fantasy range of the 06Z GFS looks like something you drew up! I wouldn't mind seeing it verify rather than the most recent CPC maps though.

 

 

No...I apologize if I came off snappy. I have noticed you seem to relish the thought of us baking while you sit in your newly minted ice box though. Maybe I am just defensive.

 

That's just not true. All the warmth there but most importantly the dryness sucks to see. I think I've posted two posts over the last couple days highlighting that because I find it really surprising that the dryness streak continues. Keep hoping and thinking it might break for the Portland area but it keeps getting pulled away. Pretty remarkable stretch.

[Jesse]

Improvement on the 12z ensembles in the mid range...but the long range has now trended a bit warmer.

 

[TT-SEA]

His path of annoyance is righteous. Yours is born of sinful indulgence. Repent.

 

Indeed!