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May Weather in the Pacific Northwest


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Threading the needle on the 12Z ECMWF to a nice Memorial Day weekend!  

 

Rain is pushed farther south into southern Oregon on Friday and Saturday.    

 

Sunday and Monday look really nice on this run.    Some low clouds on Saturday morning when the low passes by to the south but then totally sunny everywhere after that with pleasant temps.  

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_7.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I see Aleutian ridging!

 

Last 4 episodes of such have trended equatorward relative to climo, starting with the first anticyclonic event last November.

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A genuine deep trough on the 12Z ECMWF by next Thursday... maybe I should move our reservations out a week since Memorial Day weekend is looking much better.  :)

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A genuine deep trough on the 12Z ECMWF by next Thursday... maybe I should move our reservations out a week since Memorial Day weekend is looking much better. :)

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

Woah..no vortex over Baffin Island?

 

If we can actually get rid of that thing (for more than just one week) it will be much easier to establish Aleutian ridging/-PNA. Mechanically speaking.

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Already into the 70s here in Hillsboro. Gorgeous and sunny outside. Through the first 3 weeks of May it's been the 2nd warmest on record here at PDX.

 

 

The record warmth and dryness this month has been well discussed here.

 

Any comment on that warming trend now that the 12z runs have come out?

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The record warmth and dryness this month has been well discussed here.

 

Any comment on that warming trend now that the 12z runs have come out?

I've always said there would be a period of troughing and below normal temperatures. It will eventually come. My forecast for June in the PNW is still around average with the cooler anomalies north, not changing that at the moment.

 

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I've always said there would be a period of troughing and below normal temperatures. It will eventually come. My forecast for June in the PNW is still around average with the cooler anomalies north, not changing that at the moment.

 

I hope you're right...

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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A genuine deep trough on the 12Z ECMWF by next Thursday... maybe I should move our reservations out a week since Memorial Day weekend is looking much better.  :)

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10.png

 

 

FWIW... the EPS is much weaker with the trough and cool down at that time.   Here is the 12Z EPS for the same day as above:

 

eps_t850a_noram_37.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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FWIW... the EPS is much weaker with the trough and cool down at that time.   Here is the 12Z EPS for the same day as above:

 

eps_t850a_noram_37.png

 

Hoping it pans out just for the likelihood that it would likely rain and wash out the air.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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FWIW... the EPS is much weaker with the trough and cool down at that time.   Here is the 12Z EPS for the same day as above:

 

eps_t850a_noram_37.png

 

 

I'll take any positive news right now.  It's an epic battle between summer and pseudo-summer...

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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Not just timing either... here is day 11 from the 12Z EPS.    Its not showing anything like the operational run.

 

eps_t850a_noram_47.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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There have been other attacks though... just not fatal.    Best to just be prepared.

 

 

Are you kidding?  There are hundreds of cougar attacks every weekend.....in local bars...frequented by single young men and older women....

 

 

*HUNDREDS*

 

 

The horror of it all....

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Not more informative at all. I said the EPS was weaker with the trough. And it's actually ridgy and warm in the 10-15 day period.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Not more informative at all. I said the EPS was weaker with the trough. And it's actually ridgy and warm in the 10-15 day period.

Actual mean 500mb heights tells you a lot more than a map that looks like it lost a paintball war to the orange team.

 

Doesn’t stroke the pleasure spot quite the same, though. ;)

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We all know warmth on the EPS never verifies. It's been showing warmth for the last 5 weeks. What a joke! Compare that to actual results. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Do you think we aren’t due for a pattern change?

Does not matter. You have been saying that for weeks while the EPS marches along generally warm. Its still doing that.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Does not matter. You have been saying that for weeks while the EPS marches along generally warm. Its still doing that.

So you think early June will be warm?

 

I notice the EPS will sometimes go with persistence in the LR. The fact that it has a troughy look days 8-10 is more promising to me than any day 15 stuff.

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So you think early June will be warm?

I notice the EPS will sometimes go with persistence in the LR. The fact that it has a troughy look days 8-10 is more promising to me than any day 15 stuff.

I would guess June will be warm overall... but that does not mean there will not be any periods of troughing.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Are you kidding?  There are hundreds of cougar attacks every weekend.....in local bars...frequented by single young men and older women....

 

 

*HUNDREDS*

 

 

The horror of it all....

 

Best to be prepared, no matter what type of cougar one may encounter. Hopefully Tim has trained his son well.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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I would guess June will be warm overall... but that does not mean there will not be any periods of troughing.

Didn’t answer the question.

 

Betting on a warm overall summer month is like shooting fish in a barrel. Especially at SEA or PDX.

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Didn’t answer the question.

Betting on a warm overall summer month is like shooting fish in a barrel.

Probably a cool period at the very end of May into the first couple days of June. Not sure about all of early June though.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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FWIW, GFS ensemble mean does not show ridging at day 10...but still kind of a cutoff ULL signal.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

 

 

Beyond that looks fairly seasonable. Definitely no strong troughing signal, but there is a decent signal for GOA ridging, which would probably keep a fair amount of onshore flow going.

A forum for the end of the world.

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There have been other attacks though... just not fatal. Best to just be prepared.

I always have bear spray with me when out on hikes...more so for offleash dogs more than anything else.
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Not just timing either... here is day 11 from the 12Z EPS. Its not showing anything like the operational run.

 

eps_t850a_noram_47.png

Well, most members do transition the pattern, however there are huge timing differences as far as start time is concerned. Many members have yet to flip @ D15.

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