May Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Not that it means much at this point, but this is the Weather Channel's outlook for June. The maps for July and August had the PNW painted in with above average as well. Their June outlook seems to stand in contrast to Phil's thoughts of a troughy June. Not sure what the Weather Channel uses to base these long term outlooks on...

This ain’t the year for persistence forecasting.

 

I think that’s gonna bust bigly.

[Phil]

Big time jet extension on many EPS members after D9.

 

Looks 2016-ish with a little 1980 thrown in.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Careful when using that. Not calculated the same way as the official PNA data. Different parameters used for the calculation of the descriptive EOF.

 

We talked about this during the winter, and people attacked me for it. But it’s true.

Yeah, there's more to it than just the PNA. I just use it as a general guide along with other parameters.

[Jesse]

Yeah, there's more to it than just the PNA. I just use it as a general guide along with other parameters.

TWC’s seasonal forecast?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

TWC’s seasonal forecast?

Nope you should know by now I forecasted a rather average June for the PNW.

[TT-SEA]

Big changes on the 00Z GFS.

 

Yet despite looking more troughy... it's also much drier than the 12Z run. In fact it's basically dry for everyone for the 3-day weekend. A front is moving in on Monday evening on this run.

[BLI snowman]

August 1981 was between 1977 and 1994.

 

June 1984

July 1993

August 1986

September 1991

 

Come September both Tim and Jesse will commit seppuku.

[Jesse]

June 1984

July 1993

August 1986

September 1991

 

Come September both Tim and Jesse will commit seppuku.

I’ve lived through 2014-17. 1986 and 1991 ain’t .

[MossMan]

Brrrr...down to 49 already!

[BLI snowman]

I’ve lived through 2014-17. 1986 and 1991 ain’t s**t.

 

1991 still has the 2nd highest average September maximum at PDX. 1974 (COLD PHASE!) surprisingly is still in 1st. Both marks are ripe for a little modern day Modestofied takedown.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FWIW, Brett Anderson's update from 2 days ago.

 

"Signs continue to point toward most of the heat being concentrated across the West into mid-June, while several cool fronts will likely dive into eastern Canada, reducing the risk for any prolonged heat and humidity."

 

 

https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-clues-to-the-long-range-outlook-through-june/70004988

[Farmboy]

This ain’t the year for persistence forecasting.

 

I think that’s gonna bust bigly.

 

How bigly?  Am I gonna need Gore-Tex & thermal underwear?  Will there some scintilla of warmth/dryness to remind us that it's still summer?

[El Nina]

The Weather Channel is such a joke. Their 15 day forecasts are no better than the built in apps on our phones that change like the wind, all their videos are clickbait, and they hype up everything so much to the point it makes you cringe.

[Jesse]

I just got a chance to look at the 00z GFS and it’s pretty awesome. I guess what they say about a watched pot is right.

[El Nina]

I just got a chance to look at the 00z GFS and it’s pretty awesome. I guess what they say about a watched pot is right.

I thought that was just for snow events.

[Jesse]

I thought that was just for snow events.

A rain event or a below normal day would be about as momentous as a snow event at this point.

[El Nina]

A rain event or a below normal day would be about as momentous as a snow event at this point.

The grass is about to turn brown right now. The ground is super hard and it doesn't look like there's much rain coming up. It never fails to amaze me how fast soil moisture just dissapears in such a moist climate.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Going to assume it's going to be another bad fire season here in Oregon.

[weather girl]

Slightly off topic, but has anybody been tracking the UK heat wave (at least by their standards)? I’ve never seen anything like it this early before, and I can’t help but wonder if it has anything to do with the summer set up out here.

[Tyler Mode]

Clear skies last night allowed the temperature to drop to 41 this morning.  The clouds have filled in now though

[Tyler Mode]

I've measured 0.19" of rain this month.  My next driest May is 1.30".  With no significant rain in the forecast, I'm curious what the driest May's ever are for Portland, does anyone have any data handy?

[TT-SEA]

I've measured 0.19" of rain this month.  My next driest May is 1.30".  With no significant rain in the forecast, I'm curious what the driest May's ever are for Portland, does anyone have any data handy?

 

1992 -  .10

1982 -  .46

1994 -  .56

1938 -  .57

2015 -  .59

 

 

 

2018 - . 15

[Jesse]

Slightly off topic, but has anybody been tracking the UK heat wave (at least by their standards)? I’ve never seen anything like it this early before, and I can’t help but wonder if it has anything to do with the summer set up out here.

I looked it up and I couldn’t find much about any records being set. It appears western Europe is in a pattern very similar to the one we are stuck in though, with split flow and meandering cutoff lows.

 

And it is a direct indicator that our summer will be hot, of course.

[Jesse]

Interesting changes on recent runs. The next week is now looking dry but cooler...tomorrow could be the only day well into the 80s down here, with temperatures back to seasonal levels by late week into the weekend.

 

The manner in which the cutoff low phases does seem to open the door for a pattern change, though.

[Kayla]

Interesting changes on recent runs. The next week is now looking dry but cooler...tomorrow could be the only day well into the 80s down here, with temperatures back to seasonal levels by late week into the weekend.

 

The manner in which the cutoff low phases does seem to open the door for a pattern change, though.

 

The fantasy range of the 06Z GFS looks like something you drew up! I wouldn't mind seeing it verify rather than the most recent CPC maps though.

[Phil]

Slightly off topic, but has anybody been tracking the UK heat wave (at least by their standards)? I’ve never seen anything like it this early before, and I can’t help but wonder if it has anything to do with the summer set up out here.

Yeah, both are related to that +NAO/vortex positioning.

 

Though it will be weakening going forward.

[TT-SEA]

Latest CFS monthly forecast shows a hot summer (JJA) for the PNW and then a frigid December and January here.   

[Deweydog]

Latest CFS monthly forecast shows a hot summer (JJA) for the PNW and then a frigid December and January here.

I'm so torn over whether to make fun of this.

[TT-SEA]

I'm so torn over whether to make fun of this.

 

I just thought it was the perfect mix of seasonal variety.   

 

Likely will be the complete opposite.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

Southern California says good morning to the Pacific Northwest from the Mt. Wilson Observatory. 

 

[MossMan]

Southern California says good morning to the Pacific Northwest from the Mt. Wilson Observatory.

 

towercamMay21.jpg

Looks familiar!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Latest CFS monthly forecast shows a hot summer (JJA) for the PNW and then a frigid December and January here.   

 

Believe it or not I haven't checked out the CFS monthlies in about 6 months.

[Jesse]

I just thought it was the perfect mix of seasonal variety.

 

Likely will be the complete opposite.

Hot summer/mild winter is always the most likely outcome.

[Phil]

Latest CFS monthly forecast shows a hot summer (JJA) for the PNW and then a frigid December and January here.

Expect a cold summer and a torchy December and January, then.

[Deweydog]

Haha. It'll probably end up the opposite! LOL!

[Anti Marine Layer]

Expect a cold summer and a torchy December and January, then.

Our December was torchy here. So torchy in fact that you got smoke from our fires. Southern California is almost like the Southern Hemisphere in terms of their warmest and coldest times of the year. Normally the beaches average warmer in January than June.

[TT-SEA]

Wow... 12Z GFS is even more progressive.   The models are really playing catch up.   The cut off low late this week has moved east about 1,000 miles over the last few days of model runs.

 

It was supposed to end up over us by maybe Sunday... now its likely going to go through SoCal and Arizona and not come north at all.   Of course this is all being driven by a much deeper and more active northerly flow.

 

Here was the 00Z GFS on Saturday evening for this coming Saturday...

 

 

 

And now the new 12Z GFS for the same time...

 

[Deweydog]

Boo! I want my Benderstorms!

[Guest happ]

Our December was torchy here. So torchy in fact that you got smoke from our fires. Southern California is almost like the Southern Hemisphere in terms of their warmest and coldest times of the year. Normally the beaches average warmer in January than June.

 

What?

[TT-SEA]

Huge improvements for the Memorial Day weekend on the 12Z GFS as a result of the changes.

 

Sunday and Monday now look gorgeous.    Might be cancelling those reservations yet.