June Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

And the 12Z GFS just took away our nice 4th. I knew that second ULL was going to be a problem.

Unless the Euro shows it, the GooFuS is probably out to lunch. Terrible model.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF does not agree with the GFS.   Looks much more like the GEM.

 

Here is the 4th...

 

 

[El Nina]

Euro is running.

Looks like it's going to trend warmer after the 4th.

[The Swamp]

Seattle NWS is going for a high of 74 and pretty nice weather.

 

Maybe they are blending the models?

[TT-SEA]

Looks like it's going to trend warmer after the 4th.

 

 

It way warmer and drier for the 4th as well... compared to the GFS at least.

 

Looks like a little warmer than previous afterwards as well as you mentioned.

[Jesse]

Looks like it's going to trend warmer after the 4th.

Knock me over with a feather.

 

You would think the warm freaks would realize that climate change is on their side at some point.

[Phil]

[MossMan]

12Z ECMWF does not agree with the GFS. Looks much more like the GEM.

 

Here is the 4th...

 

 

Perfection!!!

[TT-SEA]

Its 4 days away now.

 

GFS shows rain and cold temps... ECMWF shows sunshine and highs in the 80s.   That is a crazy difference for 96 hours out.  

 

Seems like these incredible model disagreements only happen on holidays.

[The Swamp]

Which model has handled the ULL's better recently?

[Phil]

I personally want the GFS to be correct, but the Euro is probably closer to reality. Fits climatology better.

 

FWIW, the CMC sucks almost as bad as the GFS in these death ridge patterns. I wouldn’t pay attention to it after D4.

[TT-SEA]

Comparing frame by frame on WB between the 00Z ECMWF and the 12Z ECMWF... the ULL offshore is just slightly farther away on the 12Z run.  

 

But the 12Z ECMWF is almost identical to its 00Z run.   The GFS made a big swing in that period between its 00Z run and 12Z run.

 

Consistency is on the side of the ECMWF. 

[El Nina]

It way warmer and drier for the 4th as well... compared to the GFS at least.

 

Looks like a little warmer than previous afterwards as well as you mentioned.

I said after the 4th because that ULL off the OR coast seems a bit more intact and is closer to us on this run.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF for Thursday when the 12Z GFS shows it raining all day...

 

 

[Jesse]

12z GFS showed nearly 1/3” of rain down here, which would have been extremely beneficial going into July. So of course it will be wrong.

[TT-SEA]

I said after the 4th because that ULL off the OR coast seems a bit more intact and is closer to us on this run.

 

 

At 5 p.m. on Wednesday... the ULL is a little farther away on the 12Z ECMWF compared to its previous run.   But its close to being identical.

[Phil]

Here’s the difference between the GFS and ECMWF. The one issue here is this does fit the ECMWF’s ULL bias to some extent. So there’s a chance it’s too far SW with it and overly meridional as well.

 

[weatherfan2012]

 

most of the country is in an a all out blow torch pattern.what a misable pattern not even any thunderstorms to go with it eather unless your in Florida or exstrem south and southeast states.

[TT-SEA]

And Friday per the 12Z ECMWF.    Come on ECMWF... you got this!     Usually so good within a week out.

 

 

[Jesse]

Here’s the difference between the GFS and ECMWF. The one issue here is this does fit the ECMWF’s ULL bias to some extent. So there’s a chance it’s too far SW with the ULL.

 

Yeah, the way the Euro digs that trough so sharply to the SW smells like a cutoff bias. It would just take a small shift to get us back into some decent rainfall like the GFS shows.

 

The GFS op did have decent support among its ensembles. Then again, I don’t think that means as much in the summer. And the Euro is very rarely wrong just four days out.

[Phil]

most of the country is in an a all out blow torch pattern.what a misable pattern not even any thunderstorms to go with it eather unless your in Florida or exstrem south and southeast states.

Amazing...2 feet of rain from 5/1 to 6/25, now we likely have 2+ weeks straight of 90+ highs and no rain in sight.

 

Figures the spigots shut off when they’re most needed.

[TT-SEA]

Here’s the difference between the GFS and ECMWF. The one issue here is this does fit the ECMWF’s ULL bias to some extent. So there’s a chance it’s too far SW with it and overly meridional as well.

 

 

It would quite rare for this bias to be so pronounced just 4 days out.   Usually it happens in the 7-10 day period.

 

I wanted to see if the ECMWF even moved towards the GFS or eastward of its 00Z run.   It did not.   Of course this will be the one time that ECMWF completely busts just 4 days out!  

[Farmboy]

Which model has handled the ULL's better recently?

Depends who you're asking...

[El Nina]

Knock me over with a feather.

You would think the warm freaks would realize that climate change is on their side at some point.

Imagine looking at a map of height anomalies compared to the 1981-2010 average that wasn't 80% red. Nuff said

[Jesse]

Heat ridges over the Central US don’t retrograde and become western ridges. They rely on different mechanisms for sustenance. Models don’t seem to understand that, however.

Well for whatever it’s worth, a lobe of that central US heat retrograding (or at least refusing to budge) seems to be what is causing our trough to suddenly dig so far offshore on the Euro.

[Jesse]

Imagine looking at a map of height anomalies compared to the 1981-2010 average that wasn't 80% red. Nuff said

But it was CLOUDY this morning. Waaaah.

[The Swamp]

Yeah, the way the Euro digs that trough so sharply to the SW smells like a cutoff bias. It would just take a small shift to get us back into some decent rainfall like the GFS shows.

 

The GFS op did have decent support among its ensembles. Then again, I don’t think that means as much in the summer. And the Euro is very rarely wrong just four days out.

What kind of a troll cheers for rain on the 4th of July?

[Jesse]

What kind of a troll cheers for rain on the 4th of July?

We really need the rain. I don’t care what day it happens. We will find something enjoyable to do on the 4th regardless.

[Phil]

It would quite rare for this bias to be so pronounced just 4 days out. Usually it happens in the 7-10 day period.

 

I wanted to see if the ECMWF even moved towards the GFS or eastward of its 00Z run. It did not. Of course this will be the one time that ECMWF completely busts just 4 days out!

I have an odd hunch that the GFS might be right. Even though it’s a crappy model and the Euro solution fits seasonal climo better, this year has done anything but follow climo.

 

And I’ve been insulting the GFS relentlessly. So maybe there’s some karma to work off.

[TT-SEA]

But it was CLOUDY this morning. Waaaah.

 

 

Or for a week straight through the middle of our precious summer.  

 

And not the mid afternoon burn-off stuff which would be a huge improvement right about now... it gets thicker and darker through the day.   

[Jesse]

Or for a week straight through the middle of our precious summer.

 

And not the mid afternoon burn-off stuff which would be a huge improvement right about now... it gets thicker and darker through the day.

A drop in the bucket to make up for our summer in May perhaps?

[TT-SEA]

I have an odd hunch that the GFS might be right. Even though it’s a crappy model and the Euro solution fits seasonal climo better, this year has done anything but follow climo.

 

And I’ve been insulting the GFS relentlessly. So maybe there’s some karma to work off.

 

 

Yeah... I have zero confidence in any solution right now.

[TT-SEA]

A drop in the bucket to make up for our summer in May perhaps?

 

Nahhhh... that was not such a great month either.   We went a week straight with virtually no sun.   Not even late in the day.   And had a couple other annoying stretches.   Considering how the major stations were so warm and dry... it felt like areas to the north and east of Seattle were robbed again.   Not much rain but certainly not anyone's definition of summer up here.  

 

Again... my perspective would COMPLETELY different if I lived in the Portland area.    

[The Swamp]

We really need the rain. I don’t care what day it happens. We will find something enjoyable to do on the 4th regardless.

 

Okay.  Gotcha.

 

I'll give you your desires for rain into mid July but the one day I want it to be nice is the 4th.

[Phil]

Well for whatever it’s worth, a lobe of that central US heat retrograding (or at least refusing to budge) seems to be what is causing our trough to suddenly dig so far offshore on the Euro.

That’s not what I see. It looks to me like a result of poleward propagating NPAC anticyclones. Large scale balance and streamflow are always the governors. What triggers the evolution of such is the hard part.

 

If western ridging is to return, it will be preceded by a weakening of the death ridge and a vortex over the Hudson Bay, as usual.

[Jesse]

Nahhhh... that was not such a great month either. We went a week straight with virtually no sun. Not even late in the day. And had a couple other annoying stretches. Not much rain but certainly not anyone's definition of summer up here.

It was incredibly warm and sunny for May. Only a week of clouds in May is probably pretty much unheard of for your location.

 

Be happy that the weather cooperates with you so much these days, and probably will continue to do so more and more as our climate warms. Especially in the warm season, which is what you care the most about anyway.

[El Nina]

But it was CLOUDY this morning. Waaaah.

And that is the difference between looking at the big picture or just what's happening in your backyard.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

That’s all well and good, but what reasons do you have to expect it will?

Not going to explain it again, already said why in the summer forecast thread. I'm running too cold so far this summer with my prediction.

[Jesse]

Okay. Gotcha.

 

I'll give you your desires for rain into mid July but the one day I want it to be nice is the 4th.

Fair enough. I understand that. It honestly wouldn’t bother me if we got some rain at some point that day. It’s pretty rare to have a true washout this time of year. Most fireworks displays would probably forge onward as planned. Maybe a little less crowded.

[TT-SEA]

It was incredibly warm and sunny for May. Only a week of clouds in May is probably pretty much unheard of for your location.

 

Be happy that the weather cooperates with you so much these days, and probably will continue to do so more and more as our climate warms. Especially in the warm season, which is what you care the most about anyway.

 

 

It was that way in Seattle and Portland.   But areas to the north and east of Seattle were so persistently cloudy that did not feel like anything special.  

 

Unlike May and June of 2015 which felt just as summery here as in Seattle and Portland.

 

You were not here.  I recognize how different is has been down there.  The pattern has really sucked overall this year for areas north and east of Seattle stretching all the way to Montana.   Made even worse by the fact that from Seattle southward its been a different world.   Way more than usual.   So close and yet so far away.