July 2018 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

Speaking of moisture, looks like your getting hit this morning. Nice severe warned line of storms skirting south of Holdrege. Next week is still looking like much more comfortable temps are in the forecast for at least a couple days.

Yes we got another 1/2” this morning. Much heavier to my south and west. With a temp of 68 the dew is 67 but the air actually doesn’t feel that bad with cloudy skies. Something else I am noticing this summer, I have rarely heard irrigation motors on center pivots. We live on the edge of town and that is just part of the normal sounds, just not very common this summer which is a good thing.

[Minny_Weather]

Opened up my blinds today. Surrounded by heavy rain but all we have gotten so far is light stuff. Clouds are holding temps in the lower 70s at least. 70.9*F.

[Minny_Weather]

Okay now it's pissing down rain. And it's cooled things off substantially. I just turned off the A/C and opened up the windows for the first time in I don't know how long. 67.5*F.

[Tom]

If you look at yesterday's Euro Weeklies, it's going to continue to stay very wet across the central Plains and also bleed south as this pattern progresses.  I think the slightly AN precip around the MW/GL's is during the next 2 weeks, but after that, I'm still thinking it will dry out.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro weeklies are pretty persistent with a ridge in the 2nd half of the run. It's consistently indicating that as we close out August we might be in line for at least one more pretty significant heat wave.

[CentralNebWeather]

Strange day. Temp is only 80 but dew is 70 with a north breeze. Actually felt enjoyable unless you had manual labor to do outside.

[Tom]

It's a pleasant morning here with clear skies, calm winds and a cool 64F with DP's in the upper 50's.  I must say, it almost feels "cool" with the dryness in the air.  Today, is going to be an amazing day.

[Tom]

Surprised to see an Enhanced Risk for Severe storms across E NE today...have you guys had an Enhanced Risk this summer yet??

 

 

[Tom]

@ St Paul, the system coming your way later tomorrow and Friday is likely going to track right over your place.  What an interesting closed upper low traversing the region.  Should look pretty cool on radar during the day when the atmosphere is most unstable.

 

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

@ St Paul, the system coming your way later tomorrow and Friday is likely going to track right over your place. What an interesting closed upper low traversing the region. Should look pretty cool on radar during the day when the atmosphere is most unstable.

 

Yeah I’ve been watching this for the last few days. Instability looks rather weak overall, but there’s talk of tornadoes due to the spin from the deepening low. 1-2” of rain, up to 3” possible. Looks like one of those big Fall rainstorms typically seen in Oct/Nov. I’m looking forward to it. This summer has been zzzzzzz so far.

[Tom]

Recap through mid July, where it has been wetter it has been cooler but still AN.  On the flip side, where it has been dry, it has been warmer.  These maps will change 2nd half of the month.  I'm convinced there will be pockets of BN temps across the Plains/MW by months end.  Dramatic flip in the pattern is set to take over and it will get wetter farther south and cool, to possibly cold, for late July standards across the Upper MW.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The idea of a Cross Polar Flow pattern is now looking likely next week as the target date of 7/22 needs to be moved a couple days forward.  The cut-off low is slowing down the progression from last weeks thinking.  Nonetheless, a fascinating weather pattern is shaping up as a summer time Polar Low is forecast to come down out of the Arctic and into Canada, while ridging across NW NAMER and SE CA/N ATL cause the entire flow to come out of the north ushering in the coolest airmass of the summer season.  I'm a believer that these are the 1st signs from nature of what we will be expecting to see heading into Aug.  Troughs will be plentiful as the pattern suppresses farther south as we get deeper into late Summer.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Another round of rain just starting to roll through. What a summer for moisture around here.

[gabel23]

Surprised to see an Enhanced Risk for Severe storms across E NE today...have you guys had an Enhanced Risk this summer yet??

 

 

Actually Tom we have had a couple of enhanced risks this year to go along with a moderate risk. This summer for me has actually been one of my favorites. Although I’m sick of the heat, we have seen timely rains that cool us back for a day or so and a pretty decent severe season. We haven’t seen much of anything from tornadoes but the lightning from the storms we got are some of the most impressive ones I have ever seen!

[Minny_Weather]

Today is my birthday, and today is also the day that average temps peak. It's down from here. Doesn't look like we'll take advantage of that today, we will be below normal. I am fine with that. 72.0*F.

[Tom]

Today is my birthday, and today is also the day that average temps peak. It's down from here. Doesn't look like we'll take advantage of that today, we will be below normal. I am fine with that. 72.0*F.

Happy B Day bud! Glad to hear Mother Nature is cooperating for your special day. Enjoy!

[westMJim]

At this time, it is a sunny and cool 73° here at my house. With July now over half over with here in Grand Rapids the airport has recorded 0.25” of rain with 2 reported thunderstorms. Meanwhile here at my house I have only had a total of 0.14” of rain and 0 thunderstorms. The airport is about 20 miles to my SE

[Bryan1117]

Actually Tom we have had a couple of enhanced risks this year to go along with a moderate risk. This summer for me has actually been one of my favorites. Although I’m sick of the heat, we have seen timely rains that cool us back for a day or so and a pretty decent severe season. We haven’t seen much of anything from tornadoes but the lightning from the storms we got are some of the most impressive ones I have ever seen!

Definitely not the first Enhanced Risk in Eastern Nebraska this spring/summer, but we haven’t had too many of them either. Maybe the 4th one of the season, even though it doesn’t “technically” include Omaha today.

 

I agree with Gabel, it has been an interesting late spring/summer around here weather-wise to say the least. We started with plenty of heat and very dry (drought like weather) conditions that was even leading to dust storms when the May winds hit... giving us fears of another Dust Bowl on the Plains after an abnormally cold and dry Winter (at least over most of Eastern, Central and Southern Nebraska).

 

Then June followed with abundant moisture which caused plenty of flooding on the Missouri River, and very warm and humid to boot. The College World Series schedule was absolutely wrecked by the rain and storms like never before this year, however amazingly the event still was a mild success attendance wise despite Mother Nature not cooperating at all.

 

July has been very different from normal Julys, starting off with plenty of heat and the July 4th severe storms with the crazy outflow winds. It appears that we will be transitioning to another wet and cooler pattern to finish the month around here- which I will take!

[St Paul Storm]

Big changes on the 12z GFS and 3km NAM with regards to tomorrow’s soaker. Way south on the 12z. Northern IA Jack zone. Other models still pumping out some big totals here. We’ll see.

[james1976]

Big changes on the 12z GFS and 3km NAM with regards to tomorrow’s soaker. Way south on the 12z. Northern IA Jack zone. Other models still pumping out some big totals here. We’ll see.

Yeah wonder what Euro will show. I better mow my lawn tonight!

[snowstorm83]

The DFW area could reach up to 110 this week. Anytime I feel hot here, I'll just look at their weather forecast to feel better. 

[james1976]

I mentioned it a couple times and it might not mean anything but the locust have been goin crazy since around the 1st of the month. Few friends and coworkers mentioned it too. Usually its close to August when they start buzzin. Coworker also said he has a bush thats already turning red. Maybe the vegitation and wildlife is trying to telling us something. Haha. Regardless, it definitely makes me think of fall!

[james1976]

Today is the most comfortable of the week so far. Comfy temps and humidity. Starting to cloud up a bit. The neighbor next to my work is burning wood. Gettin me in that fall mood!

[Tom]

Today is the most comfortable of the week so far. Comfy temps and humidity. Starting to cloud up a bit. The neighbor next to my work is burning wood. Gettin me in that fall mood!

I had thought the same thing this morning when the sun was coming up and the feeling of the cool, crisp, Canadian air gave me goose bumps.  The next couple weeks look ideal for more of this refreshing air.

[james1976]

Still pretty warm. 83 with 84 heat index. Doesnt feel like it though.

[Minny_Weather]

Today's actually tolerable. 85°F with a dew point in the upper 60s. Summer-like but it doesn't feel like I'm in an armpit.

[gabel23]

Definitely not the first Enhanced Risk in Eastern Nebraska this spring/summer, but we haven’t had too many of them either. Maybe the 4th one of the season, even though it doesn’t “technically” include Omaha today.

 

I agree with Gabel, it has been an interesting late spring/summer around here weather-wise to say the least. We started with plenty of heat and very dry (drought like weather) conditions that was even leading to dust storms when the May winds hit... giving us fears of another Dust Bowl on the Plains after an abnormally cold and dry Winter (at least over most of Eastern, Central and Southern Nebraska).

 

Then June followed with abundant moisture which caused plenty of flooding on the Missouri River, and very warm and humid to boot. The College World Series schedule was absolutely wrecked by the rain and storms like never before this year, however amazingly the event still was a mild success attendance wise despite Mother Nature not cooperating at all.

 

July has been very different from normal Julys, starting off with plenty of heat and the July 4th severe storms with the crazy outflow winds. It appears that we will be transitioning to another wet and cooler pattern to finish the month around here- which I will take!

Well said man, that dust storm in May was crazy!! 

[gabel23]

Not the first picking of cucumbers but man they are going crazy! Got a lot of jalapeno's today and my first couple tomatoes. My wife is getting itchy to get some salsa made; as am I because she sold our supply from last year at the farmers market!! My potatoes are also flowering like crazy; as mentioned before we have been blessed with some timely rains this summer. 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Not the first picking of cucumbers but man they are going crazy! Got a lot of jalapeno's today and my first couple tomatoes. My wife is getting itchy to get some salsa made; as am I because she sold our supply from last year at the farmers market!! My potatoes are also flowering like crazy; as mentioned before we have been blessed with some timely rains this summer.

 

Awesome! My garden is popping too, but nothing like yours. I have my first cucumbers, tomatoes, and jalapeños coming in now. That D**n 18” snowstorm in mid April really set me back this season.

[St Paul Storm]

I mentioned it a couple times and it might not mean anything but the locust have been goin crazy since around the 1st of the month. Few friends and coworkers mentioned it too. Usually its close to August when they start buzzin. Coworker also said he has a bush thats already turning red. Maybe the vegitation and wildlife is trying to telling us something. Haha. Regardless, it definitely makes me think of fall!

I was thinking the same thing about Fall this evening when I came home and found acorns falling from a few of my oak trees. That’s about a month early. Not sure what it means, if anything, but it made me go ‘hmmmm’.

[Tom]

Another top notch morning here, a bit cooler than yesterday, temps are in the upper 50's along with light winds.  Beautiful sunrise.  Well, looks like all the models are on board for a widespread soaker through the weekend.  @ Jaster and our MI Peeps, here's your best chance for an appreciable rainfall this entire summer!  Sounds crazy, but that's just how its been this season for you guys.  Hope you get hit good bc I think precip chances for the rest of this month look minimal.

 

 

00z Euro...

 

[Tom]

If you are to believe the JMA weeklies, and they have been rock steady on a cooler pattern, say good bye to any heat for the majority of our sub forum.  Although, I can imagine some parts of the Plains can see the ridge fight back from the SW at times, but nothing sustained throughout the rest of summer.  Everything is falling into place for an awesome 2nd half of summer.

 

 

I think it's safe to say, that the MW/GL's region just waved good bye to the 90's until next year....the placement of the 2 big blocking patterns (W/SW and in SE Canada) create a near perfect alignment for a trough smack dab in the middle of the nation. 

 

 

Temp forecast Week 1-4...

 

 

Week 1...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_1/Y201807.D1812_gl2.png

 

 

Week 2...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201807.D1812_gl2.png

 Week 3 & 4...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201807.D1812_gl2.png

[Hawkeye]

The MCS action over here is not moving.  I've been under the light to moderate rain on the northeast side all morning while the heavy cells have been parked just southwest of here.  Widespread 2-4" has fallen over there.

[Tom]

While the current forecasts that just came out today suggest the drought to persist across NE/MO, I have a hard time believing it.  IMO, there will be plenty of chances of precip for the 2nd half of summer down that way.

 

 

 

[james1976]

65 and rainy. Feels refreshing

[OKwx2k4]

While the current forecasts that just came out today suggest the drought to persist across NE/MO, I have a hard time believing it. IMO, there will be plenty of chances of precip for the 2nd half of summer down that way.

 

 

 

Yeah. My drought risks will be over soon. The surface got pretty dry but creeks, lakes and ponds held up really well so far. Got a little bit of tree stress but not nearly as bad as the last few hot years. A good part of that is from a storm the other day.

 

Seeing a slow but very steady increase in severe weather in my area as this summer has progressed. That, coupled with these incredible dewpoints this season spells trouble, imo, as the month winds down and cool punches seem to have a lot more push (according to modeling).

[OKwx2k4]

Christmas in July...

 

 

 

Give me this pattern for Christmas in December and we'll see what we can do.

[james1976]

Christmas in July...

 

 

gfs_T2ma_us_27.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_26.png

 

Give me this pattern for Christmas in December and we'll see what we can do.

Thats gonna be refreshing. Good bet at 70s/50s for mby.

[Hawkeye]

Now going over an inch here.  This morning's rain has been a nice surprise.  Showers were expected, but models underplayed it.

[CentralNebWeather]

We Keep waiting for the cool down here. Now 90 through at least Sunday. 74 dew now, you sweat standing in one place. I am sick of humidity. Maybe when we retire it will be a home in the mountains. I see again why so many go west in the summer.

[westMJim]

 

n doing some research I found out that in Grand Rapids going back to 1950 there have been more warm/hot meteorological summer months then dry ones. Here in Grand Rapids the chances of seeing a warm summer month (going back to 1950) are greater than seeing a dry one.   If we get the forecasted rain that would take 2018 off the dry list. Note June 2018 did NOT make the warm nor dry list. July at this time is still in the running for both.