July 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FWIW here is the 12z UKMET at day 6.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[Perturbed Member]

Huge changes on the 12Z GFS and 12Z GEM for Sunday onward... way warmer and drier.

 

Yeah this is pretty how much 90% of these August troughs end up as we get closer. A quick burst of rain would have been great but I'll take anything other than 95-100F and smoke at this point. 

[Jesse]

I love how the models can lock onto a heatwave days in advance and only have it become more impressive and prolonged as it approaches. Basically the dead opposite with summer troughing.

[GobBluth]

Huge changes on the 12Z GFS and 12Z GEM for Sunday onward... way warmer and drier.

similar progression but the gem parks that low a lot closer.

[Jesse]

How's the ensemble support for this GFS run?

Chart hasn’t updated yet. But someone else might know a way to see them quicker.

[Geos]

Hopefully the EURO isn't any different from the last run. Let the other models cave to it. 

[BLI snowman]

Chart hasn’t updated yet. But someone else might know a way to see them quicker.

 

You can view the GEFS on Tropical Tidbits as it comes out.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018073112&fh=150

 

Ensemble mean looks to have trended a little west with the troughing but the OP is still a massive outlier.

 

Today's 12z and yesterday's 18z GFS runs definitely seem to be going through the same dealer.

[Geos]

Clouds starting to break up here. 

[Jesse]

The models that keep the energy dropping down out of Alaska as an open wave as opposed to a tightening cutoff tend to be more progressive.

 

The sun also rises in the evening and sets in the morning.

[Phil]

The mid-latitude anticyclones are still well poleward of climo for -QBO. I think it’s reasonable to expect the GOA trough/ULL train to intermittently retrograde offshore at times. Doesn’t mean it won’t be a troughy month.

 

There is no coherent MJO/wave-1 tropical forcing pattern once the big warm pool convection begins dying later this week. A few CCKWs into the WHEM with the third pulse timed well w/ perpendicular exhaust to the SH initiating the next round of IO divergence during the third week of August.

[ShawniganLake]

Chart hasn’t updated yet. But someone else might know a way to see them quicker.

The mean is about 10C lower than the operational for early next week

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX is just 0.1 short of tying the all time record warmest month as of yesterday (74.1 in July 1985).

 

The average high temp so far of 87.5 ties the average high in July 1985, but the average low of 60.5 falls a little short of 1985’s 60.7.

 

Will be interesting to see how today impacts the final numbers. A tie seems likely.

[Phil]

The Greenland ice sheet is fat and happy right now.

 

Been a string of cool summers up there.

 

[Geos]

Still some clouds drifting in. Temp up to 65. EURO out to 48 hours now. 

[Phil]

Amazing stuff. Got down into the mid 50s here this morning after a high of 100 degrees yesterday afternoon. I’ve never experienced a diurnal temperature cycle like that before during the warm season. Ever. Truly foreign to me. Just a few hours after sunset it was essentially room temperature outside.

 

And while the middle of the afternoon was still uncomfortably hot, the lack of humidity makes such a huge difference. I wasn’t instantly drenched in sweat upon walking outside like I would be in the swamp.

[Geos]

EURO deepens the trough this weekend.

 

 

Looking stronger and more pronounced.

 

[Deweydog]

Amazing stuff. Got down into the mid 50s here this morning after a high of 100 degrees yesterday afternoon. I’ve never experienced a diurnal temperature cycle like that before during the warm season. Ever. Truly foreign to me. Just a few hours after sunset it was essentially room temperature outside.

 

And while the middle of the afternoon was still uncomfortably hot, the lack of humidity makes such a huge difference. I wasn’t instantly drenched in sweat upon walking outside like I would be in the swamp.

It's a dry heat.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is plenty wet from Sunday-Wednesday.

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF is plenty wet from Sunday-Wednesday.

You must be plenty disappointed.

[TT-SEA]

You must be plenty disappointed.

Terribly!

 

Might have to troll you even more with the next warm spell.

 

[Jesse]

Terribly!

 

Might have to troll you even more with the next warm spell.

 

 

I’m sure that would have happened regardless.

 

Anyhow, the last six years have essentially been one big warm spell. That would mean you have been trolling the entire...holy crap I think I just solved the forum.

[Jesse]

Some crazy outlier operational solutions from the GFS lately.

 

[TT-SEA]

I’m sure that would have happened regardless.

 

Anyhow, the last six years have essentially been one big warm spell. That would mean you have been trolling the entire...holy crap I think I just solved the forum.

Warm and wet.

[Jesse]

Warm and wet.

In the winter.

 

Hot and dry May-Sept.

[Blizzard777]

I wouldn’t mind the Euro forecast

[TT-SEA]

In the winter.

 

Hot and dry May-Sept.

Great!

 

Not in 2014... wettest April-August ever up here. Top tier wet August in 2015. Not hot and dry in 2016. And 2018 just dried out.

 

Portland southward just sucks donkey balls

[Jesse]

Great!

 

Portland southward just sucks donkey balls

You must mean the 95% percent of the region surrounding the damp clump of moss you and Randy call home.

[Jesse]

Smoke has cleared out down here today. The sky is nice and blue again and there is a mild NW wind.

[Front Ranger]

Goddammit models. Trying to pick out outfits for my trip next weekend.

[TT-SEA]

You must mean the 95% percent of the region surrounding the damp clump of moss you and Randy call home.

 

Yep!

[Front Ranger]

There's a map for that.

[FroYoBro]

Goddammit models. Trying to pick out outfits for my trip next weekend.

Speedo.

 

It works great in any situation.

[Farmboy]

Speedo.

 

It works great in any situation.

Not really.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS appears to water down the trough compared to 00Z run.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Pleasant 82F in Eugene. Smoke off to the southeast.

[Jesse]

12Z EPS appears to water down the trough compared to 00Z run.

Funny, I was about to post the complete opposite.

[Jesse]

Not really.

Good point farmboy. There are actually many situations and weather conditions in which a speedo would be entirely inappropriate. I guess he didn’t think of that before making his 100% serious post.

 

He’s probably a rain lover too... <_>

[TT-SEA]

Funny, I was about to post the complete opposite.

You need WB

[Jesse]

You need WB

Nah, your interpretation is often way off even with that crutch.

[Front Ranger]

Speedo.

 

It works great in any situation.

Yeah, but my significant other frowns on me wearing the same thing every day.