PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[snow_wizard]

The Euro also shows it freezing up later tomorrow night.  Then upper teens to mid 20s for the colder places Tuesday night.  Nice warning shot.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 5

More robust with the positive heights off the coast vs 12z.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[SouthHillFrosty]

How do I find the uw wrf-gfs again pls?

Edited February 13, 2023 by SouthHillFrosty

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

How do I find the uw wrf-gfs again pls?

Type uw weather models

[SnowWillarrive]

26 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

This would be pretty nice.

Sounds awesome. I don’t trust the WRF. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How do I find the uw wrf-gfs again pls?

GFS-Initialized Pacific Northwest WRF Weather Forecasts (washington.edu)

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How do I find the uw wrf-gfs again pls?

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/naminit.html

[HuskyMaestro]

13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The Euro has been extending that snow line north…..  wouldn’t be surprised if south king over performed or got none

Don't give me hope, man. Not like this lol.

Fife and the Swamp is like the Caelid region from Elden Ring. 

[Slushy Inch]

Another one.

[kokaneekidz]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Nice day up on orcas island today. Surprised to see we may actually get snow in Tacoma while I am gone. No snow on the mountain for now but I bet that will change. 

I love the view from Mt constitution 

[SnowWillarrive]

16 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The Euro has been extending that snow line north…..  wouldn’t be surprised if south king over performed or got none

With the euro improved. This is looking legit as a warning shot! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 7

I think euro is about to knock our socks off.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Another one.

Pretty eye popping for the ensemble.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

With the euro improved. This is looking legit as a warning shot! 

I love that we get some legit cold for a couple of days as well.  Hard freeze Tuesday night and probably icy roads Tuesday morning.

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I love that we get some legit cold for a couple of days as well.  Hard freeze Tuesday night and probably icy roads Tuesday morning.

East King County just south of I-90 looks pretty favorable right now. Trying to tame my expectations. 

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I think euro is about to knock our socks off.

Nice improvement at the very least.

[Gradient Keeper]

Real potential ahead for several shots of cold/snow and we cannot rule out a late Winter blast.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[snow_wizard]

Do people still doubt the power of MJO zone 7?  I think the late Nov / early December cold wave was from that also.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Real potential ahead for several shots of cold/snow and we cannot rule out a late Winter blast.

Perfectly said.  A real blast is on the table.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

Main trough in view. Looks weird in comparison to gefs.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

Definitely has the classic stair step look.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Do people still doubt the power of MJO zone 7?  I think the late Nov / early December cold wave was from that also.

Is it in 7 now? and how far along is the SSW event?

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[SouthHillFrosty]

HOLY SHIT @snow_wizard

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

HOLY @snow_wizard

What does it show down here? Not even sure what that model is lol

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What does it show down here? Not even sure what that model is lol

I think it’s the high def model for Canada… kinda like the US NAM maybe?

[Doinko]

WRF-GFS looks like a nice 1-4" for the Willamette Valley 

[snow_wizard]

Day 10 looks like it may be going somewhere.

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What does it show down here? Not even sure what that model is lol

Hi def Canadian mesoscale 

[Christensen87]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

HOLY @snow_wizard

South King County represent! 

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Is it in 7 now? and how far along is the SSW event?

It will be in 7 soon and the SSW has come in two phases.  You can see the second phase just starting to kick in at the end of the loop.  this is the phase where the wind reversal will happen.

[SnowWillarrive]

8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

HOLY @snow_wizard

Yea high def Canadian picking up on a nice 6+ inch band over King County south of I-90. Makes the WRF more believable. Wow 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Everybody go to sleep now!! Tomorrow night might be an all nighter!!!