PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Makes a difference though. 1991-2020 climate norms vs 2002-2020 norms.

Just something to keep in mind I suppose.

Moreso important for those 850 temp maps. Definitely look less impressive on WB

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The NAM tries to bring through a nice PSCZ convective band in a few hours. With an environment like this, there would likely be lightning, hail, heavy downpours, and pockets of wet snow.

Lol, it creates a lil QLCS, with a low behind the convective line and everything. I've noticed this structure plenty of times before in PSCZ events.

[RentonHill]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Moreso important for those 850 temp maps. Definitely look less impressive on WB

Actually interesting that the WB scales up quick - WM goes out to -30...so thats why we're not seeing pinks on WM

[TT-SEA]

The difference between the ECMWF and the EPS at 240 hours is definitely interesting.        

[RentonHill]

End

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Actually interesting that the WB scales up quick - WM goes out to -30...so thats why we're not seeing pinks on WM

Still a good lookin' map either way you cut the cookie. 

[Slushy Inch]

EPS temps about the same. Just a little colder around the 25th.

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS improved. A touch more digging and we turn COLD by late Feb standards! C'MON!!!!

[Deweydog]

Sun!!

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

EPS improved. A touch more digging and we turn COLD by late Feb standards! C'MON!!!!

It's good, doesn't get too cold yet, probably still a lot of warm members to eliminate.

[Slushy Inch]

I like the increase in GOA ridging.

[MossMan]

Just got caught up on the thread after a busy morning…Looks like things look great/terrible! Questions answered!! 
 

Now back to work. 

[ShawniganLake]

18 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I like the increase in GOA ridging.

Canada is entirely under a huge trough.  Not a great look for arctic air digging into the PNW but it could be cool and active. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I just went back on Tropical Tidbits and looked at the ECMWF run from one week ago this morning and it showed the current trough diving into the PNW almost perfectly.   Are you saying the ECMWF didn't show a deep, cold trough for Valentines Day a week ago?   Because it did show it and we were talking about it.     

Andrew is trolling dude. He knows the GFS sucks.

GFS skill scores vs ECMWF over the last month have been pretty brutal. And the entire ECMWF system is getting a major update soon. We’re falling behind.  

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Andrew is trolling dude. He knows the GFS sucks.

GFS skill scores vs ECMWF over the last month have been pretty brutal. And the entire ECMWF system is getting a major update soon. We’re falling behind.  

Have GFS verification scores reached 2008 ECMWF levels yet?

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Canada is entirely under a huge trough.  Not a great look for arctic air digging into the PNW but it could be cool and active. 

It's still chilly northwest flow. Need more GOA ridging to get a cold trough south.

[Phil]

35 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Actually interesting that the WB scales up quick - WM goes out to -30...so thats why we're not seeing pinks on WM

Yeah, ignore the colors if you can. All about the scale. Would be great if they’d remove the color scale and replace it with contours IMO.

But people don’t want to use their brains, so there’s zero chance they’d do it.

[RentonHill]

3.6 roentgen

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Have GFS verification scores reached 2008 ECMWF levels yet?

It’s close!

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

3.6 roentgen

3.6 roentgen?

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

3.6 roentgen

The warms members will get eliminated eventually!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO seems most bullish of all the models. We'll see. I've dialed back my expectations for this event, thinking 2-4" here. Which is decent. 

A dusting to a few inches seems to be a good call right now. Whoever gets to be under a heavy snow shower will be the big winners.

 

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

3.6 roentgen?

watch Chernobyl

[Cold Snap]

 

[WeatherGeek2022]

winter remains cancelled looks like, it's baffling that the models even generate such teases.

[Hawksfan2008]

On 2/11/2023 at 3:55 PM, TT-SEA said:

Where are you going?   I would say 50% of the people we have met here in Maui are from western WA and OR.    Haven't heard anyone say they are looking forward to going back.   

Maui!  

[Deweydog]

Hail!!

[SouthHillFrosty]

The HRDPS is running!!

[MWG]

46F light rain and windy.

[Cold Snap]

Currently 43.9. Looks like I got a midnight high of 47 today.

[MWG]

Temps going down as the rain comes in!

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Looks like it is stuck at hr 11 but still has the same convergence zone 

[Perturbed Member]

The NAM is going the wrong direction. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[SouthHillFrosty]

Did Mossman pay off the NAM? There is a bulleyse over his house now

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hrrr looks really good.

[Slushy Inch]

If I a

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hrrr looks really good.

HRRR and UW GFS actually has some decent snow for me in north King as opposed to EURO. Unfortunately, I think those two models are garbage.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

If I a

HRRR and UW GFS actually has some decent snow for me in north King as opposed to EURO. Unfortunately, I think those two models are garbage.

Definitely. No consistency on Hrrr. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Definitely. No consistency on Hrrr. 

Some consistency over many runs that I get PSCZ snow at 6pm.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Some consistency over many runs that I get PSCZ snow at 6pm.

PSCZ does look pretty beefy right now.