August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Chewbacca Defense]

About a month or two ago the GFS had a new satellite launched.  Perhaps they finally added in the correct data involving all the earth changes instead of the old historical stuff that is long out of date and never was any good.   https://www.space.com/39850-next-generation-goes-weather-satellite-launch.htmlOkay It was from March I couldn't remember off the top of my head but since it was launched and used the GFS hasn't been so "drunk".   See models are only as good as the operators that put in the data.  There is no such thing as a "wacked" model or bad model run.  There is a such thing though as bad people running it but since they are in the government they cannot possibly not know what they are doing.

 

 

Imagine how less "drunk" the GFS would be if all of the sensors actually worked as advertised....https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/05/newest-noaa-weather-satellite-suffers-critical-malfunction/

 

At $2.7B per satellite for development, hardware, and operational support over 30 years, that's a big chunk of money floating around out there that is only partially useful....

[MossMan]

Since this coming fall/winter will be the first living in my new location surrounded by trees in every direction...my prediction is a massive windstorm will hit us at some point and I will be without power for days! Along with some good snows. Will have a 2006/07 vibe to it!

[Front Ranger]

Sure. But both the operational Euro and GFS are essentially in agreement for next week as of the 12z runs. If that were the case with a troughy pattern you would likely be disregarding the GEM and the ensembles.

There's been very little run to run or model to model consistency, though. And latest Euro is way warmer than GFS... doesn't have the inside slider early next week at all.

 

I have no dog in the fight here. I went very warm for August in the contest. I'm just going by what I'm seeing as far as model trends.

[Jesse]

There's been very little run to run or model to model consistency, though. And latest Euro is way warmer than GFS... doesn't have the inside slider early next week at all.

 

I have no dog in the fight here. I went very warm for August in the contest. I'm just going by what I'm seeing as far as model trends.

 

So am I.

[Front Ranger]

Up here we had drizzle/light rain for four straight mornings last week!

Your new location may give Tim a run for his money for wettest/least like the others.

[Front Ranger]

So am I.

Ok. No reason to infer I'm biased towards a troughy outcome, though. You're clearly more emotionally invested in how it ends up than me, but I'm not using that to discredit your reasoning

[Jesse]

Ok. No reason to infer I'm biased towards a troughy outcome, though. You're clearly more emotionally invested in how it ends up than me, but I'm not using that to discredit your reasoning

 

You keep reminding me why I generally refrain from interacting with you much here. I appreciate the refresher.

[Front Ranger]

All the models failed horribly (euro was the worst) in the latest verification scores so I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock into any model beyond day 5 at this point.

Don't be silly. Everything is pointing to another inevitable heatwave. Any model that shows something else is obviously just trolling.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have a lot of trees here, but there is a low hill to the south so things usually don't get that bad. Though I lose power constantly all winter.

[BLI snowman]

My bad, forgot PDX reached 90+ yesterday.

 

But I do think there's plenty of potential for Friday to be cooler than mid 80s for PDX. This is the type of pattern progression that depending on timing, could easily result in sub-80 for Friday and/or sub-75 for Saturday.

 

That's a pretty good 24-48 hour crash from the temps on Thursday.

 

Pretty much no support for a sub-80 down here on Friday. It's only four days out at this point.

 

Not going to be heavy cloudcover during the day and we'll have a very warm starting point with Thursday night's balminess. 

[Kayla]

You do get the sense that Fall begins early here if the latest and last several EPS runs are to be trusted. Continues to show a very chilly looking pattern setting up in 8 to 10 days.

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/2u56ykl.png

[Front Ranger]

You keep reminding me why I generally refrain from interacting with you much here. I appreciate the refresher.

And you keep reminding me why I gave you the butt hurt label. I come on here and honestly try to offer encouragement and reasons why there is hope for cool-lovers, and you respond by taking the littlest things personal and being an a**.

 

I get that you're sick of this weather, but I didn't deserve several of the responses you gave.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty much no support for a sub-80 down here on Friday. It's only four days out at this point.

 

Not going to be heavy cloudcover during the day and we'll have a very warm starting point with Thursday night's balminess.

Marine crashes and associated timing are notoriously unpredictable.

[Jesse]

And you keep reminding me why I gave you the butt hurt label. I come on here and honestly try to offer encouragement and reasons why there is hope for cool-lovers, and you respond by taking the littlest things personal and being an a**.

 

I get that you're sick of this weather, but I didn't deserve several of the responses you gave.

 

Ok Jared. Talk to you later.

[Jesse]

You do get the sense that Fall begins early here if the latest and last several EPS runs are to be trusted. Continues to show a very chilly looking pattern setting up in 8 to 10 days.

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/2u56ykl.png

 

That looks pretty decent. Appears the EPS must have trended cooler.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That looks pretty decent. Appears the EPS must have trended cooler.

 

One would think a cooler fall than recent years COULD be on tap. 

[Deweydog]

Talk to the hand!

[Front Ranger]

Ok Jared. Talk to you later.

Do or don't. But everything I said was true. Even when I'm not teasing or trolling and I'm actually trying to be sensitive and encouraging, you still take things personal and read everything I type through a hateful lens.

 

You took issue with me because I presented a different view point and backed it up. That's ALL I did. As long as you keep being an a** for no reason, I'll keep calling it out and we won't be able to have adult conversations. Which is a shame, because we both have plenty to offer and have had great conversations in the past.

[BLI snowman]

Marine crashes and associated timing are notoriously unpredictable.

 

Weather is unpredictable by nature. Doesn't change the message formed by the tools that we have at our disposal. 

[Jesse]

Do or don't. But everything I said was true. Even when I'm not teasing or trolling you and I'm actually trying to be sensitive and encouraging, you still take things personal and read everything I type through a hateful lens.

 

You took issue with me because I presented a different view point and backed it up. That's ALL I did. As long as you keep being an a** for no reason, I'll keep calling it out and we won't be able to have adult conversations. Which is a shame, because we both have plenty to offer and have had great conversations in the past.

 

Please stop trying to paint me into a corner. My responses have been calm, and you are making a mountain out of a molehill now.

 

As usual with you, the best way to win is not to play.

[BLI snowman]

The idea of an early fall is lost on the present climate.

 

An "early fall" now means a few sub-80 days in late August and a +1 September instead of a +4. Then a "chilly" October with weeks of rain that refuses to ever go below about 44.

[Deweydog]

Please stop trying to paint me into a corner. My responses have been calm, and you are making a mountain out of a molehill now.

 

As usual with you, the best way to win is not to play.

Nobody puts Baby in a corner.

 

#statutoryrape

#imisstheeighties

#august19814eva

[Front Ranger]

My responses have been calm, and you are making a mountain out of a molehill now.

 

As usual with you, the best way to win is not to play.

 

Telling someone they're biased and not worth talking to, when all they've been doing is offering their viewpoint in a respectful manner, is disrespectful. I did nothing to deserve that.

[Jesse]

Nobody puts Baby in a corner.

 

#statutoryrape

#imisstheeighties

#august19814eva

Thanks Matt.

[Jesse]

Telling someone they're biased and not worth talking to, when all they've been doing is offering their viewpoint in a respectful manner, is disrespectful. I did nothing to deserve that.

Never once said you were biased. You do like to play devil’s advocate though. I think everyone here is aware of that.

[Jesse]

EPS really isn't all that different than the operational. Slightly lower heights but that is to be expected with a smoothed ensemble mean.

[Front Ranger]

Sure. But both the operational Euro and GFS are essentially in agreement for next week as of the 12z runs. If that were the case with a troughy pattern you would likely be disregarding the GEM and the ensembles.

 

 

Never once said you were biased. You do like to play devil’s advocate though. I think everyone here is aware of that.

 

How else should I interpret this? 

[James Jones]

Ok. No reason to infer I'm biased towards a troughy outcome, though. You're clearly more emotionally invested in how it ends up than me, but I'm not using that to discredit your reasoning

 

Honestly I'm not sure what point you've been trying to make today.

 

Absolutely nothing indicates a notable cool period coming up, at best it shows us going down to around average for Friday/Saturday with the ensembles showing uncertainty beyond that point, though the smart money would be on some degree of warmer than average considering what the operational runs have shown and the general theme of this summer so far.

[Jesse]

How else should I interpret this? 

 

That I am aware that you enjoy playing devil's advocate? I dunno.

[Front Ranger]

For early next week.

 

CMC = very cool

GFS = slightly above normal

Euro = very warm

 

Very little run to run or inter-model consistency/agreement right now past day 6.

 

#augusticyhotbox

 

 

All the models failed horribly (euro was the worst) in the latest verification scores so I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock into any model beyond day 5 at this point.

 

 

Honestly I'm not sure what point you've been trying to make today.

 

Absolutely nothing indicates a notable cool period coming up, at best it shows us going down to around average for Friday/Saturday with the ensembles showing uncertainty beyond that point, though the smart money would be on some degree of warmer than average considering what the operational runs have shown and the general theme of this summer so far.

 

See above. 

 

Never said anything about a notable cool period being likely.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The idea of an early fall is lost on the present climate.

 

An "early fall" now means a few sub-80 days in late August and a +1 September instead of a +4. Then a "chilly" October with weeks of rain that refuses to ever go below about 44.

 

A widespread hard frost in late October would be a welcome change.

[jakeinthevalley]

Nobody puts Baby in a corner.

 

#statutoryrape

#imisstheeighties

#august19814eva

Is it wrong that I really like that movie?

[Front Ranger]

That I am aware that you enjoy playing devil's advocate? I dunno.

 

I honestly don't very often. Troll on occasion, but no more than your average Phil, Matt or Justin.

 

If I'm analyzing model runs and trends, there's a 99.9% chance I'm neither trolling or playing devil's advocate.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Strong smell of smoke has settled in here this morning. I’m assuming from the 120ac fire that flared up near Nanaimo last evening.

 

Just drove down from Sproat Lake. Clear blue sky and clean air here in Victoria, yet just 20~50km north from Mill Bay to Nanaimo there's thick smoke and terrible air quality. Seems like it's getting trapped up against the mountains.

[Jesse]

I honestly don't very often. Troll on occasion, but no more than your average Phil, Matt or Justin.

 

If I'm analyzing model runs and trends, there's a 99.9% chance I'm neither trolling or playing devil's advocate.

 

Nice!

[Deweydog]

Is it wrong that I really like that movie?

Not at all.

 

I watch Steel Magnolias every time I see it's on.

 

#diejuliadie!

[James Jones]

See above. 

 

Never said anything about a notable cool period being likely.

 

So your point is that there's some uncertainty in the medium-long range? Not trying to be a **** but that just seems totally obvious.

 

To summarize the state of things: right now we're looking at another 4 days of hot weather followed by a "crash" down to around average with things looking uncertain beyond that point, though some degree of warmer than average is clearly favored by the models with anything cool being the least likely outcome. Obviously the specifics aren't going to be nailed down at that range.

[Deweydog]

It looks like we're 100% sure we're not sure! Lol!!! Haha!!!

[Jesse]

So your point is that there's some uncertainty in the medium-long range? Not trying to be a **** but that just seems totally obvious.

 

To summarize the state of things: right now we're looking at another 4 days of hot weather followed by a "crash" down to around average with things looking uncertain beyond that point, though some degree of warmer than average is clearly favored by the models with anything cool being the least likely outcome. Obviously the specifics aren't going to be nailed down at that range.

You should post more.

[jakeinthevalley]

Not at all.

 

I watch Steel Magnolias every time I see it's on.

 

#diejuliadie!

#mancrushonswayze

 

#mrshousemanishott