August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Please stop trying to paint me into a corner. My responses have been calm, and you are making a mountain out of a molehill now.

 

As usual with you, the best way to win is not to play.

Movie came out in 1983...was that a cool/wet summer? I don’t remember.

[Jesse]

Movie came out in 1983...was that a cool/wet summer? I don’t remember.

You’re late to the dance.

[BLI snowman]

Movie came out in 1983...was that a cool/wet summer? I don’t remember.

 

Tim still has nightmares about it.

[Front Ranger]

So your point is that there's some uncertainty in the medium-long range? Not trying to be a **** but that just seems totally obvious.

 

To summarize the state of things: right now we're looking at another 4 days of hot weather followed by a "crash" down to around average with things looking uncertain beyond that point, though some degree of warmer than average is clearly favored by the models with anything cool being the least likely outcome. Obviously the specifics aren't going to be nailed down at that range.

 

Same point Kayla made. It's greater than normal, models have been performing poorly, and therefore there's no reason to give any high certainty to a hot outcome (as some were doing).

 

I'm not sure what your **** is, but it may very well apply to grossly oversimplifying my point. 

[Deweydog]

We're closer to nuclear war now than ever before with Trump in charge! Lol!!!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

No... it did look like a pattern that could crash.   

 

I am glad to see a solid soaking rain on the 12Z ECMWF here for later this week.   And I want to enjoy what is left of summer.    September is only 3.5 weeks away.  

 

The models dropped the ball this past weekend. Your go-to GFS cloud model was a miss even 24 hours out. This past Saturday was supposed the socked in with clouds, but instead it was 86F and sunny. The early week forecasts must have caused some cancellations, the lake was quieter than I expected. I wouldn't trust the models this far out.

 

[MossMan]

You’re late to the dance.

Matthew Broderick not Patrick Swayze! Different analogs!

[Jesse]

We're closer to nuclear war now than ever before with Trump in charge! Lol!!!

 

Take your MAGA to the politics side, por favor.

[Front Ranger]

Weather is unpredictable by nature. Doesn't change the message formed by the tools that we have at our disposal. 

 

Of course.

 

But marine crashes and resulting temps when they occur are one of the less predictable scenarios of PNW weather.

[Deweydog]

Take your MAGA to the politics side, por favor.

We wouldn't want to fill this thread up with a bunch of pointless bickering, now would we!

[Jesse]

We wouldn't want to fill this thread up with a bunch of pointless bickering, now would we!

 

Yeah, still not really sure what he was going for there.

[Deweydog]

Yeah, still not really sure what he was going for there.

U r an ez target.

[Jesse]

U r an ez target.

Thanks Matt.

[Front Ranger]

OLM going for #10 in the 90+ category today. Almost twice their annual average. 2015 had 15 already at this point.

[Deweydog]

Less smoke today than I thought there'd be.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, still not really sure what he was going for there.

 

I made a point and then elaborated when questioned. A discussion with counterpoints both ways ensued.

 

Not that difficult to understand.

[Deweydog]

Thanks Matt.

So is he.

 

#takestwotohaveroughsex

[Front Ranger]

Smoke is getting about the worst it's been all summer in SW OR, per my dad.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It's not so much that cool downs in Western WA/OR cause thunderstorms, but that they also really kick up the winds. Often we get no lightning from this pattern, but lots of wind. The mega fires of a few years ago exploded because of really strong winds.

 

Also, an awful lot of our lightning storms come not from that pattern, but from storms that move up from California and move North through Eastern Oregon into Eastern Washington.

Yeah, winds are the biggest reasons for wildfires growing in size.

 

I've also read that wildfires can produce winds up to 10x stronger than winds surrounding them. Last week the Carr Wildfire in Northern California produced a "fire tornado" with winds in excess of 143 mph, equal to an EF-3 tornado.

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2018/08/04/fire-tornado-firenado-firewhirl-in-redding-carr-fire-once-thought-too-rare/#494e021658d2

[Deweydog]

Jesse will believe it when he sees it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

NWS Portland just put out an Excessive Heat Warning.

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Portland OR

147 PM PDT Mon Aug 6 2018

 

...HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND

THURSDAY...

 

. Strong high pressure will result in the hottest three days of

the season Tuesday through Thursday.

 

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO 11 PM

PDT THURSDAY...

 

The National Weather Service in Portland has issued an Excessive

Heat Warning, which is in effect from 2 PM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT

Thursday.

 

* MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...Daytime high temperatures of 98 to 103.

Temperatures will peak near 100 degrees on Tuesday, then above

100 for Wednesday and Thursday. Timing of peak heating will be

between 3 and 6 PM. It will be warmest in urban areas.

 

* MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...Overnight lows of 60 to 67, but the

nighttime cooling will be slow. Temperatures will be around 80

at 10 pm, around 75 at midnight, and cool below 70 around 2 AM.

The coolest temperatures will occur around 5 AM. It will be

warmest in urban areas.

 

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...Dewpoint temperatures in the low 60s will

result in temperatures feeling slightly warmer than they are on

Wednesday and Thursday. The Heat Index will be 102 to 104.

 

* IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress especially

with the limited relief at night. Heat stress is also possible

for livestock and outdoor pets.

[Jesse]

Would be nice if the 18z had a little ensemble support.

[Front Ranger]

Jesse will believe it when he sees it.

 

The operational GFS (pwning all other models and its own ensembles since spring, as of this morning) has definitely moved in a troughier direction for early next week since yesterday.

 

I'm an idiot for pointing this out and suggesting anything but more heat is possible, of course.

[Jesse]

Good lord...

[Deweydog]

Good lord...

You have been a pretty big boob of late.

 

And yes, Jesse. I'm aware it's been an exceptionally hot summer.

[Jesse]

You have been a pretty big boob of late.

 

And yes, Jesse. I'm aware it's been an exceptionally hot summer.

Thanks Matt.

[Jesse]

18z ensembles are a little improved.

[The Swamp]

Grab your helmets folks.  We are going to crash on Friday.

 

Seat belts on.  Helmet straps snugged up.  It's going to be a wild 25 degree drop.

 

Get out the blankets and hand warmers.

[WeatherArchive]

 Model Riding is about to begin! prepare for an unforgettable Alien encounter!  annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd This portion of the message has been brought to you by XS tech. preparing others to seize the future! Remember if it can't be done with XS then it shouldn't be done at all! https://youtu.be/WshFZcSva6oWDW Martian Tribute. 

MartinsVidsDotNet

Published on Oct 5, 2011

 

SUBSCRIBE 12K

 

Full monitor preshow, full SIR & Skippy preshow (multi angle) and complete main show (multi angle) with video screen closeups. Full source audio for whole video.

 

MartinsVidsDotNet

Published on Oct 5, 2011

 

SUBSCRIBE 12K

[Phil]

[High Desert Mat!]

[Front Ranger]

Doesn't the lag go the other way?

Not with 80+ DPs.

[Jesse]

From what I can tell there weren’t a lot of fire starts detected from the mountain convection the last few days, and there was actually beneficial rain on a few fires (like the Miriam fire near White Pass).

 

Of course more could crop up as the hot weather builds this week.

[Blizzard777]

Welp, it was fun while it lasted. Walked out of the terminal and the humidity hit me like a brick wall. Instantly drenched in sweat.

Will upload pics/vids tonight since I’m still lagged on west coast time.

Pics of you be instantly drenched in sweat! Signing off for a couple days

[Timmy]

From what I can tell there weren’t a lot of fire starts detected from the mountain convection the last few days, and there was actually beneficial rain on a few fires (like the Miriam fire near White Pass).

 

Of course more could crop up as the hot weather builds this week.

The ones near bend had a lot of rain associated with them, so that makes sense.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is much faster with the system for Friday and still wet for WA on Saturday.  

[MossMan]

Cooling off quickly this evening, already down to 65.

[Front Ranger]

00Z GFS is much faster with the system for Friday and still wet for WA on Saturday.  

 

And then keeps temps reasonable but dry Sunday/Monday. Pretty much my ideal scenario for while I'm visiting. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I don't know how accurate this map is but this is the 12z EURO column carbon monoxide map. It's basically showing the carbon monoxide released into the atmosphere during forest fires and/or large brush fires. It's showing the highest levels of carbon monoxide coming up from the south Thursday overnight into Friday. The good news is a push of cooler air comes in time for the weekend to remove all the smoke at the moment.