Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Wouldn't know, I'm at the coast and left early this morning. Nice day here in Yachats.Crazy. We’re heading down there tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Wasn't 49-50 a strong niña?I believe so. That doesn't necessarily disqualify it as an analog however. There's more to it than just ENSO type. The winter of 68-69 for example was a moderate El Nino and we all got pounded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 That’s not how analogs work.Analogs can be used a number of different ways. It's rare to have the perfect analog, you just have to try your best. Something can definitely be said for Regina setting an all time record high in August at 41.3C, breaking the old high of 40.6C way back in 1949. Other than those 2 years the next closest is 39.4C. Coincidence or not, it's there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Crazy. We’re heading down there tomorrow. Nice. Wish I could stay here all next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Nice. Wish I could stay here all next week.I was thinking the same thing. We are just doing an overnighter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Analogs can be used a number of different ways. It's rare to have the perfect analog, you just have to try your best. Something can definitely be said for Regina setting an all time record high in August at 41.3C, breaking the old high of 40.6C way back in 1949. Other than those 2 years the next closest is 39.4C. Coincidence or not, it's there.There were a number of all time record highs set in Alberta and B.C. yesterday. Calgary broke theirs from 1933. Analog? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 He’s been pretty accurate lately...Frontal1950Squall could be onto something...I have huge expectations for this coming Winter. We haven't had a regionally snowy winter in a while but I believe this will finally be the year everybody will be happy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 The fires in the BC interior seem to be producing a lot more smoke than those in California. Not sure if it's because there's a lot more area burning, the type of matter burned, or atmospheric differences. The BC smoke stretches from north of Vancouver Island well into Northern Ontario and south to the Plains, the area of smoke coverage is immense. Heck, it's even being sucked into the Hudson Bay, soon even the Baffin Island Vortex may not escape the smoke. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 I was thinking the same thing. We are just doing an overnighter. Yep, just staying tonight. Nice place called the Overleaf. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 The fires in the BC interior seem to be producing a lot more smoke than those in California. Not sure if it's because there's a lot more area burning, the type of matter burned, or atmospheric differences. The BC smoke stretches from north of Vancouver Island well into Northern Ontario and south to the Plains, the area of smoke coverage is immense. Heck, it's even being sucked into the Hudson Bay, soon even the Baffin Island Vortex may not escape the smoke. I have been paying relatively close attention to things up there this month. I’d estimate about 200k to 250k acres burned this past week. (Could be more as some fire maps aren’t updated due to smoke issues). Not sure how that compares to California. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 I have been paying relatively close attention to things up there this month. I’d estimate about 200k to 250k acres burned this past week. (Could be more as some fire maps aren’t updated due to smoke issues). Not sure how that compares to California. Looks like a lot of lightning triggered fires over the North Island. Things could go from bad to worse this coming week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Four named storms churning simultaneously in the EPAC. Good news for heat lovers. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Count me in on the hot summers lead to cold winters bandwagon, I'm all about that... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Slug city this morning! Cloudy but dry currently however. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Count me in on the hot summers lead to cold winters bandwagon, I'm all about that...Except that’s hardly ever the case. Cold winters are generally preceded by cool to seasonable summers, historically. Probably because back when our winters were colder ours summers were too, which is totally counterintuitive!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 So much for the break in the smoke... its already poured back in from BC right over the low clouds and even a few showers remaining from the system yesterday. The line is just past Portland now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Except that’s hardly ever the case. Cold winters are generally preceded by cool to seasonable summers, historically. Probably because back when our winters were colder ours summers were too, which is totally counterintuitive!!I wonder how that idea originated..? It's been around awhile. Maybe there's some truth to it. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 My brother lives in Coos Bay. He said yesterday was the warmest sunniest day in weeks. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 This summer is so ridiculous I have nothing to compare it to. It's kind of nice I have been so busy so I haven't had time to dwell on it. But it is like a bad dream. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Slug city this morning!Cloudy but dry currently however. Congratulations. Not even 9am and you have locked up the dumbest post of the day! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Congratulations. Not even 9am and you have locked up the dumbest post of the day!Needed to get it out of the way early as I have a lot of stuff to do around the house today. Oh and I spoke too soon as it’s raining again. Slugs everywhere! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Needed to get it out of the way early as I have a lot of stuff to do around the house today. Oh and I spoke too soon as it’s raining again. Slugs everywhere! We need to build an aqueduct from your house., 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 I wonder how that idea originated..? It's been around awhile. Maybe there's some truth to it.I’ve wondered the same thing about Bigfoot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Really enjoyed Port Angeles. Might be to dry of a climate for me though. Only 25" of rain a year. I imagine that goes up the further west or up in elevation you go. So perhaps I could tolerate living in that area. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 I’ve wondered the same thing about Bigfoot. 1992 was a hot summer. 2016 was a hot summer. It happens... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Really enjoyed Port Angeles. Might be to dry of a climate for me though. Only 25" of rain a year. I imagine that goes up the further west or up in elevation you go. So perhaps I could tolerate living in that area.My brother is living there now. I thought they got more precip than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 1992 was a hot summer. 2016 was a hot summer. It happens...There are always exceptions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 My brother is living there now. I thought they got more precip than that.I think Sequim gets even less in the Olympic shadow. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 My brother is living there now. I thought they got more precip than that. The climate data they show on Wikipedia says 25". I just looked at the actual airport data. Its 27.50". What does he do up there. Did not seem particularly economically vibrant. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 I think Sequim gets even less in the Olympic shadow. Our neighbors in San Diego moved to Sequim a few months before we moved to Oregon. Part of why they picked that area was because it was drier. Just driving from Port Angeles to Sequim you clearly notice the difference in the vegetation. Very interesting. Both locales looked extremely dry though. A campfire ban went into effect on the 6th in Olympic National Park, so when we were down at Queets River we could not have a campfire.. However, the National Forest service campground we stayed at between Forks and Port Angeles did allow campfires. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 The top coldest 5 winters at PDX are: 1) 1948-492) 1949-503) 1968-694) 1956-575) 1978-79 The summers preceding them averaged just 7 90 degree days down here, and all were cooler than normal, save 1978, which would still be frigid by today’s standards. Looking over the data for those summers it almost feels like I am looking at a completely different climate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 So much for the break in the smoke... its already poured back in from BC right over the low clouds and even a few showers remaining from the system yesterday. The line is just past Portland now. . It’s “clear” here but you wouldn’t know it. Just a faint orange glow in the sky where the sun should be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 The top coldest 5 winters at PDX are: 1) 1948-492)1949-503) 1968-694) 1956-575) 1978-79 Those summers averaged just 7 90 degree days down here, and all were cooler than normal, save 1978, which would still be frigid by today’s standards. Well...There is no historical comparison between the summers of 2013-18 and any other six year period of summer warmth in our climate record going back to at least 1870. And we have had several good winters in that time frame. At the time the summer of 2013 was one of the hottest on record in parts of the Willamette Valley. Though it has been eclipsed by the following summers... At this point, I don't think we can draw much from this summer warmth and I doubt there is any real connection. HOWEVER, historically wet August/September's do show a correlation to at least major arctic outbreaks the following winter. I have outlined that before. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Well...There is no historical comparison between the summers of 2013-18 and any other six year period of summer warmth in our climate record going back to at least 1870. And we have had several good winters in that time frame. At the time the summer of 2013 was one of the hottest on record in parts of the Willamette Valley. Though it has been eclipsed by the following summers...It has been proven then. Hot summers always lead to cold winters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Great. It has been proven then. Hot summers always lead to cold winters. Not what I am saying at all. I just don't think it means much either way. And using examples from a different climate era is fairly irrelevant. The new normal in our climate is 20+ 90 degree days a summer. So it does not have the same meaning as in the past. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Not what I am saying at all. I just don't think it means much either way. And using examples from a different climate era is fairly irrelevant. The new normal in our climate is 20+ 90 degree days a summer. So it does not have the same meaning as in the past.And we also don’t get nearly as many cold winters as in the past. A “good” winter and a cold winter are two different things. I will agree it is irrelevant at best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Since the beginning of this hot summer insanity in 2013, we have had two winters that would qualify as “good”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 At this point, I don't think we can draw much from this summer warmth and I doubt there is any real connection. I disagree wholeheartedly. The overall warming of our climate that has lead to these hot summers has also done a number on our winters. That goes without saying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 I disagree wholeheartedly. The overall warming of our climate that has lead to these hot summers has also done a number on our winters. That goes without saying. I agree with this of course. I am just saying one does not necessarily lead to another. Of course in a warming climate we will be warmer overall. I don't believe this coming winter will be warmer than average because this summer was hot. I believe it will be warmer than average because of ENSO climo and that our winters have trended warmer over the long term. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 12, 2018 Report Share Posted August 12, 2018 Since the beginning of this hot summer insanity in 2013, we have had two winters that would qualify as “good”. How many winters were "good" in the previous 6 year period, or the 6 year period before that. Certainly no more than 2. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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