August 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

When a season is on it's way out I'd rather just see it go, instead of clinging onto life...

 

Apparently summer is both fleeting and clingy. What a terrible season!

[Geos]

The fires in the Northern Cascades will definitely smolder and burn for a bit longer. Each time the wind comes in from the NE or E the region will get smoky.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah, comparing 2018 to past years the closest ENSO progression matches to this point are: 2012, 2006, 2001, 1986, 1968, and 1967. 

 

The winters that followed: 3 neutral, 2 moderate Ninos, and 1 weak Nino. So warm neutral/weak Nino seems most likely.

 

68-69 is a great Analog, but it was a moderate nino right?

[Farmboy]

The fires in the Northern Cascades will definitely smolder and burn for a bit longer. Each time the wind comes in from the NE or E the region will get smoky.

Not sure where those fires are in relation to the crest trail, but it sounds like it would be horrible hiking that section of trail now.

[MossMan]

No season lasts forever...and we are also all dust in the wind...

https://youtu.be/tH2w6Oxx0kQ

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF continues to back off on the troughing over the weekend.    Despite the 00Z EPS trending a little stronger for Sunday and the 12Z GFS not backing down.  

[Deweydog]

F*ck you, Euro.

[Geos]

Not sure where those fires are in relation to the crest trail, but it sounds like it would be horrible hiking that section of trail now.

 

Most are just to the east of the crest. You have fires like the Bannock and Miriam fires that are closer to the crest.

 

https://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=ed0a7dad32fe4848b20c6f91c74c79ea

 

As of yesterday the Miriam fire near Chinook Pass is 40% contained. http://www.nbcrightnow.com/story/38970179/miriam-fire-8-27-18-update-40-percent-contained

[MossMan]

At ground level?

Pretty good AQI right now. https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/enviwa/

 

Really clear here.

More higher based for the most part, though the air doesn’t smell quite as fresh today. The sky is milky white.

[Front Ranger]

68-69 is a great Analog, but it was a moderate nino right?

Yep. Slow developing though, I believe.

[TT-SEA]

Nice ECMWF run... as with previous runs the only real rain shown is c-zone over King County on Thursday. Although some showers are moving south across the border as early as tomorrow afternoon.

 

The holiday weekend look sunny and dry with pleasant temps on this run and then it slowly starts warming up next week.

[Jesse]

Nice ECMWF run... as with previous runs the only real rain shown is c-zone over King County on Thursday. Although some showers are moving south across the border as early as tomorrow afternoon.

 

The holiday weekend is sunny and dry with pleasant temps and then it slowly starts warming up next week.

Probably going to get really smoky again at some point.

[Front Ranger]

Probably going to get really smoky again at some point.

Let's be clear: Tim is NOT rooting for fires and smoke. He's just rooting for the weather that leads to fires and smoke, but that is most definitely NOT the same thing.

[TT-SEA]

Probably going to get really smoky again at some point.

Doubt it... the BC fire areas will be getting rain off and on for the next week. Unless we get strong offshore winds... the WA fires should not bother us much.

 

California fires are probably the biggest risk... but that smoke has been staying well south.

[TT-SEA]

Let's be clear: Tim is NOT rooting for fires and smoke. He's just rooting for the weather that leads to fires and smoke, but that is most definitely NOT the same thing.

Definitely not the same thing. Rain in BC will be plentiful while its nice here.

[Front Ranger]

Definitely not the same thing. Rain in BC will be plentiful while its nice here.

Ideally. Sometimes you can have your cake and eat it, too.

[TT-SEA]

Ideally. Sometimes you can have your cake and eat it, too.

 

 

Yeah... this could be ideal.   

 

Almost daily rain on central and northern Vancouver Island and across most of BC while its sunny and pleasant here.    Cut it off at the source.   

 

And the long range 10-day smoke model that Cliff Mass linked us to last week shows the smoke from the California fires staying well to the south and east of the PNW for the entire period.

[Jesse]

12z Euro is a little annoying. Keeps looking like troughing wants to drop down on us but it just doesn’t quite want to do the deed.

 

Kind of sucks to waste a rare period where things are lined up for western North American troughing like this. Another week or two and we will be due for another period of ridging, with no regional rainfall to show for it.

[TT-SEA]

12z Euro is a little annoying. Keeps looking like troughing wants to drop down on us but it just doesn’t quite want to do the deed.

 

Kind of sucks to waste a rare period where things are lined up for western North American troughing like this. Another week or two and we will be due for another period of ridging, with no regional rainfall to show for it.

 

 

The block to the west just weakens a little faster on the ECMWF... the troughs lose their punch and start meandering.  

[Phil]

68-69 is a great Analog, but it was a moderate nino right?

I’d be cautious with those mid-20th century analogs. That was a period of z-cell retraction/-NAO/-PNA almost every winter regardless of ENSO. The winter of 1968/69 had the most persistent -NAO on record (as is typical of global cooling regimes).

 

Under the present regime of +PMM/off equator forcing with a dateline component (and cold IO/Atlantic), this winter will probably be favored to resemble the 1980s background state again, unless the PV/NAM is attacked early via the NPAC wave-1 conduit, preferrably in November.

[Jesse]

The block to the west just weakens a little faster on the ECMWF... the troughs lose their punch and start meandering.

Ideal setup.

[Phil]

The stronger the residual easterlies (at 50mb) are come November/December, the more likely it is the West will score an early-season Arctic blast, IMO.

 

In +ENSO boundary conditions (even if not an “official” niño) having easterlies above the tropical tropopause helps structure the NPAC wavetrain in a favorable way for the PNW.

[Geos]

More higher based for the most part, though the air doesn’t smell quite as fresh today. The sky is milky white.

 

Really blue skies here... for now. 

 

Up to 75 currently.

Chelan actually in the green today. https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/enviwa/StationInfo.aspx?ST_ID=10

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS shifted back north with the troughing over the weekend from its 00Z run.  

[Geos]

Looking like a cool Labor Day on the GFS. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Looking like a cool Labor Day on the GFS. 

 

 

 

12Z ECMWF is definitely warmer and drier... and shows it being mostly sunny across the region that day.

[BLI snowman]

12z Euro is a little annoying. Keeps looking like troughing wants to drop down on us but it just doesn’t quite want to do the deed.

 

Kind of sucks to waste a rare period where things are lined up for western North American troughing like this. Another week or two and we will be due for another period of ridging, with no regional rainfall to show for it.

 

Drought years gonna drought.

 

Probably going to rain a shitload in October.

[MossMan]

Drought years gonna drought.

 

Probably going to rain a shitload in October.

If this year ends up anything like 06-07 we will be under water by the second week of November.

[Phil]

The Euro is hinting at some tropical action closer to home during week 2. A big storm could theoretically influence the wavetrains (recall what happened last year) so it’s worth keeping an eye on, even in the PNW.

 

Also some signs of that retrogression showing up on the D12-15 EPS now. But the operational isn’t really heading that way as of yet. Bermuda High doesn’t budge an inch.

[Jesse]

Drought years gonna drought.

 

Probably going to rain a shitload in October.

At least the torch has abated for the time being. I’m sure we will pay for that by mid-Sept.

[Deweydog]

I'm going on strike with the teachers until we get an inch of rain.

[TT-SEA]

At least the torch has abated for the time being. I’m sure we will pay for that by mid-Sept.

Its absolutely beauitful. Nice mix of sun and some rain this week here too.

[Jesse]

I'm going on strike with the teachers until we get an inch of rain.

Straw man!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 87F. Another 90F incoming!!!

[Deweydog]

Straw man!!

Union buster...

[Phil]

The EPS is troughy thru D10, but it’s catching onto the retrogression/WHEM forcing, expressed under antecedent cycle of poleward +U displacement (+AO/+NAO) that originated in the subtropics a month ago.

 

That a very +NAM (+AO) look overall D10-15, and as always, it naturally teleconnects with the +PMM/+PNA type circulation until the -U return cycle and conclusion of the anticyclonic breaker train/retrogression.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Way to keep it simple for the idiot masses Phil.

[Jesse]

PDX up to 84. Could be a close shave for #31.

 

The desiccated landscape may provide just enough of an assist.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX up to 84. Could be a close shave for #31.

 

The desiccated landscape may provide just enough of an assist.

 

Very low dew points. Feels great. 

[Deweydog]

Uh oh...

 

Dissention in the ranks.