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2/7 - 2/11 Texarkana Low


Tom

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DVN thinks there won't be much snow south of hw20 (Waterloo-Dubuque).  I'm not expecting more than 1-2".

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DSM    LAT=  41.53 LON=  -93.65 ELE=   965

                                            00Z FEB07
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
TUE 00Z 07-FEB  11.0     7.5    1002      73      29             552     551    
TUE 06Z 07-FEB   1.9     3.5    1010      83      59             548     539    
TUE 12Z 07-FEB  -0.1    -0.8    1017      88      27    0.00     551     537    
TUE 18Z 07-FEB   4.1    -0.8    1023      50      20    0.00     556     538    
WED 00Z 08-FEB  -0.1     0.4    1024      67      17    0.00     563     543    
WED 06Z 08-FEB  -3.2     1.4    1025      80      33    0.00     565     545    
WED 12Z 08-FEB  -3.4     1.5    1024      79      20    0.00     564     544    
WED 18Z 08-FEB   8.8     2.7    1021      29       5    0.00     563     545    
THU 00Z 09-FEB   3.5     2.4    1016      59      91    0.02     559     546    
THU 06Z 09-FEB   1.2     1.6    1010      91      98    0.28     553     545    
THU 12Z 09-FEB   0.7    -2.2    1006      96     101    0.53     545     540    
THU 18Z 09-FEB   1.4    -1.3    1011      85      57    0.10     546     537    
FRI 00Z 10-FEB   1.5    -3.3    1015      89      67    0.00     543     531    
FRI 06Z 10-FEB   0.2    -6.0    1017      95      97    0.02     541     527    
FRI 12Z 10-FEB  -4.4    -7.7    1021      86      95    0.10     540     524    
FRI 18Z 10-FEB  -7.3    -8.1    1026      76      14    0.01     541     521    

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CID    LAT=  41.88 LON=  -91.70 ELE=   869

                                            00Z FEB07
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
TUE 00Z 07-FEB   7.9     6.4    1005      68      16             556     551    
TUE 06Z 07-FEB   4.1     3.3    1007      89      52             549     543    
TUE 12Z 07-FEB  -0.3    -0.1    1015      89      40    0.00     550     538    
TUE 18Z 07-FEB   4.7    -1.2    1021      61      27    0.00     555     538    
WED 00Z 08-FEB  -0.5     1.0    1024      70      11    0.00     561     542    
WED 06Z 08-FEB  -3.0     0.2    1026      84      34    0.00     564     544    
WED 12Z 08-FEB  -4.1     1.1    1025      87      26    0.00     565     545    
WED 18Z 08-FEB   7.3     2.2    1023      37       6    0.00     564     545    
THU 00Z 09-FEB   3.1     3.1    1018      64      86    0.00     561     546    
THU 06Z 09-FEB   1.3     3.9    1011      89      92    0.12     556     547    
THU 12Z 09-FEB   0.7    -0.6    1001      93      95    0.37     545     544    
THU 18Z 09-FEB   1.4    -2.2    1006      93      83    0.57     545     539    
FRI 00Z 10-FEB  -0.4    -2.0    1014      92      74    0.01     545     534    
FRI 06Z 10-FEB  -0.5    -3.8    1016      95      95    0.00     541     529 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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DMX AFD-- (Donavan -chief forecaster - for DMX is actually impressed) Mentions TSSN

This system will feature tremendous moisture transport from the Gulf
in the both the low to mid levels that will push PWAT values to 200-
250% of normal or around 0.75". Theta-e lapse rates at or below zero
in the 700-450 mb range suggesting conditions favorable for CSI and
slantwise convection as strong thermodynamic and kinematic forcing
arrive nearly simultaneously. The million dollar question remains
precipitation type with this system and this may largely depend on
surface wetbulb temperatures as a nearly isothermal layer will
extend to near 5 kft and if there is no warm layer aloft, a surface
wetbulb of 33.5 or greater is typically enough to switch the
precipitation over to mostly rain. The overnight deterministic
solutions are running with a slight warm bias on dew points compared
to current conditions so will need to monitor the dew point
advection northward over the next 24 hrs as only a few degrees may
mean the difference between rain and a band of heavy snow.

Precipitation type - parts of southeast Iowa will have mostly rain
but in this scenario and given the rapid deepen of the surface low
should pull some colder air south, there likely will be a transition
to snow. Where that transition occurs, a band of heavy snow may
occur. Conditions are favorable for large aggregate snow crystal
growth that will have snow to liquid ratios in the 8:1 range.
Convection and potentially thundersnow could occur which would help
increase snowfall rates. Deterministic model runs are latching onto
a heavy banded snow solution while the ensembles and other model
blends are washing it out. Did increase snowfall amounts near Black
Hawk and Tama Counties to 2-4 inches but certainly may have an area
that exceeds 6 inches. Confidences is certainly still up in the air
as a couple degrees warmer and this becomes mostly rain, thus still
no headlines this morning but will be ramping up messaging. While
the pressure gradient does increase with the deepening low, blowing
snow should be mitigated by the heavy nature of the falling snow.
Stay up to date on the potential developing situation.
DISCUSSION...Donavon

 

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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It's nice to see this storm coming together for a number of you in IA and points NE into the W GL's.  This thing is going to puke snow in the defo zone.  Gosh, this storm spins up right over head and deepens.  Nice storm to track.

0z Euro Snow depth post storm...

1.png

 

Post Valentines Day storm...Euro giveth, then taketh....this is what kinda sucks about this storms snowfall...I guess enjoy what Mother Nature throws ya in a season like we've been enduring.  The N GL's and Upper MW appears it will be in tact.

2.png

 

 

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I'm not liking the west trend at all.  Even if this does produce more snow on the higher end, it will probably be mostly nw of me.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NAM is still west, FV3 is a bit farther east, early HRRR/RAP are much farther east.

NAM

image.thumb.png.3d8d45e5a6675ca70c3d8c1d004e9128.png

3kNAM

image.thumb.png.84340bff20742039eabead07e56eaf5f.png

FV3

image.thumb.png.38fac65d2807c7e25142e385747f17e8.png

 

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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All models are spitting out 1+" of precip across eastern Iowa.  This could have been the best snow event in years.  After this there will be another big rain system.  Then, we'll probably get cold and dry again and struggle to squeeze a couple inches of snow out of 0.10" precip.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_43.png

WOW! Perfect track again for KC...this is #4 this winter with a perfect track, all have been rain events. Need to watch this, if it does get over to snow, it could puke snow for 4-5 hours at over 1"/hr. This model run of the RGEM does get it over to snow a few frames later, just imagine if it turns over sooner. 

NEVER GIVE UP ON a storm, just maybe we'll drop to 31-33 and puke snow for several hours tomorrow night and wake up to a winter wonderland Thursday morning. 

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Active storm thread?? Must be Iowa getting hit. This very marginal situation is a lot like what we had last month. Hope it comes together for some of you out there. I wish I was planning to go north this weekend. Looks like the Tip-o-the-Mitt region and E Yoop will do nicely again. Good luck!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Wow, the 12z Euro is spitting out nearly 2" of precip through Cedar Rapids.  It has to be overdone.

image.thumb.png.47896b6c72fc51457f03e7da7cfda20f.png

image.thumb.png.cf79be656b76e44daa7dfee9c67b87ac.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Kuchera version.  Wow these ratios suck.  What a waste.  

 

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

1-2º colder, this could have been our biggest snow event in years.  Still, it could look amazing here Thursday morning with large, wet flakes pouring down.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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9 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

1-2º colder, this could have been our biggest snow event in years.  Still, it could look amazing here Thursday morning with large, wet flakes pouring down.

Yeah, I'm ok with it if we can get a few inches and a nice scenery.  But man we could be tracking something historic like you mentioned.  Almost 2" of QPF for CR.  

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This is a winter in IA ( south of 20)  where you can't be greedy. 1-3" of snow with a winter landscape that lasts for few days-- heck--- it could be worse. See Omaha. Be VERY glad seeing seasonal totals go near/over 20" when locales just 100 miles W have seen 5"-- if that.  I'll take it.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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