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2/7 - 2/11 Texarkana Low


Tom
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A complex system appears to be taking shape towards the middle & end of next week, right when some interesting blocking is setting up over SE Canada.   The models are coming into better agreement that an initial deep low pressure system will come out of the deep south of Texas and track into Texarkana.  It'll be a warm system that'll tug a ton of GOM moisture but then thats when it gets complicated as there is a northern energy that also tracks SE out of Canada that may, or may not, phase with the southern energy to produce a more significant system.  Let's discuss...

0z EPS...

image.gif

 

I've noticed the EPS shifting S/SE with the storm track and now has it targeting IA up through SE MN/IA/WI/N MI with snow..

 

image.png

 

0z GEFS...

 

image.png

 

0z CMCE...

sn10_acc-mean-imp.conus.png

 

0z UKIE...

sn10_acc-imp.conus.png

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Yeah, this will be a solid rain maker down here, with some modeling suggesting flooding rains possible. Definitely unusually wet for this time of year. A few models have even shown some wrap around snow for my area, but this seems like a model artifact given how warm the system is. As of now, thinking 1-2" of rain for NE OK. 

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12z GFS, CMC, and Euro all produce a respectable snow storm, all 3 in a different way and target different areas.  All 3 close to producing a major share the wealth snow storm, all 3 close to a rainer washout.  12z Euro above.

12z GFS:

1676138400-tiz4RpLtAL4.png

12z CMC

1676138400-TNFkDKFoeAg.png

 

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EAX not mentioning any chance of snow here next week.  A little bit surprising given the trends on the Euro and CMC.  NWS is telling the same story as the GFS, we shall see if that's a wise choice.

Cooler, but still above normal temperatures expected on Tuesday with
northerly flow transitioning to easterly as upper trough moves out
of the four corners region into central Texas.  As this system moves
east, it becomes more organized encountering more moisture leading
to showers and thunderstorms across eastern Texas into Arkansas and
southern Missouri. As the low lifts northeast, potential for rain
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Another wave follows this mid-week system potentially bringing light
precipitation to the region on Friday morning.  While this wave has
a lot of upside dynamically with favorable cyclonic curvature of the
upper jet/position of jet streaks, moisture looks to be limited.  As
such, only have low pops with this features at this time.
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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

EAX not mentioning any chance of snow here next week.  A little bit surprising given the trends on the Euro and CMC.  NWS is telling the same story as the GFS, we shall see if that's a wise choice.

Topeka NWS AFD mentions the Euro snow but says too much uncertainty to add to local forecasts. Also mentions possible light snow with the trailing second trough.

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  • 22-23 Total Snowfall: 6.1" as of 03/18/23. 37% of normal to date.
  • King of the 1" snowfalls (0.6", 1.5", 1.0", 1.0, 1.1", 0.4", 0.2", 0.3")
  • Last snowfall >6": Feb 4, 2014: 13" (nine years and counting)
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So we finally get a possible near-perfect low track this week and there's no cold. 🤦‍♂️

It will likely be a decent rain followed by a bit of white rain at the end.

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season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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32 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Topeka NWS AFD mentions the Euro snow but says too much uncertainty to add to local forecasts. Also mentions possible light snow with the trailing second trough.

NWS is probably right.  It's February and if the AO and NAO are going to be positive the GFS is probably doing a better job.

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

12z Euro barely hanging onto precip this far west.

image.thumb.png.598e95bd0fb01932e55540de577dd3fa.png

Euro definitely shifted south this run. Normally this would be my perfect track for heavy snow! Unfortunately there is too much warm air north of the low. Still got time on this though!

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1 minute ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Ouch, the Euro yesterday was showing the 12” snowfall while the GFS was showing 2 separate pieces and little snowfall.

Now the 12Z Euro has matched the GFS and has 10 days of nothingness.

159661B8-2F8C-4454-BBA3-DF9624651608.jpeg

Winter is “over”.  Well it never really began.  Sure we might get some cold and snow a day or two this month.    But it’s basically forked.  

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3 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Winter is “over”.  Well it never really began.  Sure we might get some cold and snow a day or two this month.    But it’s basically forked.  

Yeah, this is coping time if it's warm now. Never get anything that lasts this late in the season, maybe a few snows that look pretty for a day or two then melt away. Weather doesn't mean much when the sun angle reaches where it does. I just hope this goes south, the last thing I want right now is rain. Only point to watch storms for me this late in the season is to make sure rain misses me so my snowboard season can keep going.

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Quite a rebound to 68.  
Gorgeous day.  
We’ll drop to 50 tonight before climbing to 71 tomorrow.  
That’s the way it goes here. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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9 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Ouch, the Euro yesterday was showing the 12” snowfall while the GFS was showing 2 separate pieces and little snowfall.

Now the 12Z Euro has matched the GFS and has 10 days of nothingness.

159661B8-2F8C-4454-BBA3-DF9624651608.jpeg

Who needs snow… stick a fork in this Winter already.

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00z Euro stronger and nw again.  Early February, this should be a 6-10" snow event.  Instead, it's rain with a little slop as it pulls away.

image.thumb.png.ea9fae5b9ad617dddb134579ea35e2c5.png

season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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What a waste of a moisture laden, deepening SLP that comes out of the Texarkana region...even though MBY isn't getting the best track to get a snow storm, but my goodness, I'd at least be rooting for members on here to get hit by it.  Sad way to start off what has been a snowier MET Winter month in recent years.

0z EPS...what coulda, or rather, SHOULDA been a fantastic storm...

image.gif

 

Even if someone in the MW/GL's gets snow it'll be washed away by the next one for Valentines Day!  Woah, what the heck did the EPS just dial up???   @Madtown @Snowshoe@gimmesnow Cascade looking good...

3.png

 

0z Euro Control...

image.png

 

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This looks like a pretty prolonged every here now. Chance of storms tonight as mid levels cool and moisten and the surface cold front moves south. Tuns more into a stratiform rain event the next 2 days with several rounds of precip. Still looking at 1-2" storm totals. It'll be close to allow a few flakes on the back edge but not thinking that works out this time. 

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GFS... lol

Man, just 2º colder aloft and at the surface and this would be a great storm.

image.thumb.png.6dfe8fcf53fad0a6efcbe405014f9411.png

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season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I still think this will be a good event - just not for many (as it should). Somewhere along and probably  E of I-35 (though I wouldn't be surprised if it trends W with snows) will do well but certainly missing that colder air that would turn this into a bonafide snow event for many.

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9 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z CMC...so the models are all starting to show a heavy band of Snow from IA up through WI/U.P./N MI as the system wraps up...

sn10_acc-imp.us_mw.png

 

12z RGEM...

sn10_acc-imp.us_mw.png

As much as i love a good snowstorm to hit us I’m honestly over this season. I rather just us have mild air and thunderstorms than snow right now. We get the storms but no cold or we either have the cold but no storms. This pattern is just all the way wonked out!

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14 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Pattern feels more like March.  

And the pattern in March is going to feel more like FEB-- issue will be cold air. I do sense a very delayed Spring in the North.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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6 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

And the pattern in March is going to feel more like FEB-- issue will be cold air. I do sense a very delayed Spring in the North.

I'm used to that.  But I actually think the more active pattern we've been in will be more of a roller coaster of a March/April, than just cold and wet like we've been getting in Michigan.  

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Nam within 48hrs has been hot last month or so. See previous threads and Clinton giving same thoughts.

But.. 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z GFS and 18z NAM both with a nice snow band.

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

As nice as this looks it’s been in the mid 60’s yesterday and today and the 50’s tmwr. This will all melt when it falls so it will just be pretty to look at with marginal temps unfortunately:(

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DVN thinks there won't be much snow south of hw20 (Waterloo-Dubuque).  I'm not expecting more than 1-2".

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season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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