Jump to content

2/7 - 2/11 Texarkana Low


Tom

Recommended Posts

56 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro

1676062800-W1TY5GaWqac.png

Definitely southeast of the 12z run.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not only did the HRRR not correct nw at 00z, it shifted even farther east, and the defo zone precip is weak.  It would be a big bust for most of Iowa.  Given the UK was on the southeast end of the model range this morning, the 18z Euro shifted southeast, and the HRRR won't budge from a southeast track, I have to think the west models are wrong.  The NAM should shift east tonight.

image.thumb.png.0540abda43dbfc6458fde8184689cab3.png

image.thumb.png.690ff0434a436701a79167ff4d0c0498.png

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yep, the 00z NAM is way east, and weaker and thinner with the snow as well.  The 3kNAM is a little better.

image.thumb.png.3e15028da338504eae9d17aba30bbda7.png

image.thumb.png.56581047f177051f2f7e50e2e051e7a5.png

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The FV3 is still farther nw and stronger with the defo zone precip.

image.thumb.png.3a83a68a3bcc939c07564fed9900b70c.png

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I laughed out loud when I saw the 00z 12K NAM moved the entire precip shield to the southeast of me. Over 1" of QPF on recent runs reduced down to less than 0.05". It's hard to take any of this seriously anymore. Local Mets must be wondering why they ever chose this for a career.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z RDPS... southeast and still rather weak with snow.

image.thumb.png.52c032be7d21d7a8d56edeacfb9ca3b2.png

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd go 2-4 for NE Iowa

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 2.3"    Largest Storm: 2.1" (11/26-27)        Oct: 0.2 Nov: 2.1 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Gfs is going crazy over Iowa city and Cedar Rapids. Virtually All models have increased snow for Iowa city tonight. 

It's a tough forecast for the NWS and local mets.  I would continue to err on the low side.

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 00z GDPS (Canadian) is southeast and weak with the defo zone precip.  It chops CR's precip in half and has almost no snow because it's so light.  Models are diverging as the system approaches.

image.thumb.png.972379c6e34eef3bb85177a1c3d96673.png

image.thumb.png.8c61559a059a893e923aa75a9ece1e29.png

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What the heck is going on with this thing?

00z UK... even farther southeast, precip barely makes it up to Cedar Rapids.  Almost the entire winter storm watch area doesn't even get a sprinkle or flurry.  This is ridiculous.

image.thumb.png.95633096e51cf3310d9a40ea663174a4.png

image.thumb.png.2a8c35d53928362b914cc6f7b7ee1e7c.png

  • Facepalm 1

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ugh.  Now the Euro is going east and crapping out, at least for Iowa.  Total precip and snowfall are way down this run.  At this point, I'm thinking 1" of snow in Cedar Rapids.

image.thumb.png.06aea7accb3fa14fd9403db4a88200b8.png

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

at least the Euro is not the NAM ---  Euro shows an interesting band from MO up to around Creston, one would think that's convective of some order.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

seems the old adage "don't wanna be in the bullseye 3-4 days out" is now more like 30-36 hours.  NWS grid has DSM area in 1-3". Going to be lucky for 1" and places W may not see any precip.

  • Like 2

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DMX with  a lengthy discussion. But really is summed up best by this line -

 

The reality is, we may not fully be sure until after the event shows its
hand tonight.

Donavan

  • Like 3
  • Facepalm 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You know it's a rough winter snowfall wise when KC disco mentions this-

Highest accumulations are expected across far
northern and NW MO where most will see about 0.5 inches or less;
however, some isolated 1 inch totals are possible.

Oh boy. 😉

  • Like 2
  • lol 1
  • Facepalm 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

You know it's a rough winter snowfall wise when KC disco mentions this-

Highest accumulations are expected across far
northern and NW MO where most will see about 0.5 inches or less;
however, some isolated 1 inch totals are possible.

Oh boy. 😉

Given the overnight timing and the heavy rates I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get a few inches of slop on the grassy surfaces.  Seems to be the best we can get this winter.

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

 

  • Like 2
  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This storm pretty sums up this season....A season of Tracking "Wasted" winter storms for those from S WI down south...the only beauty about this system will be the convection and a textbook trowal and defozone setting up right overhead!  The radar will look pretty cool.  Oh, and let's not forget the wind aspect to it...I see High Wind watch's have been hoisted under the Belly of this little Beast.  Hang on to your hats @Hoosier!

0z Euro...peak wind gusts...loads of precip...

image.png

 

image.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

Euro caving also to the mighty NAM. Loading Maps...

 

 

Why are you saying models are caving to the NAM?  24 hours ago the NAM had a bunch of snow from central to northern Iowa.  The NAM was terrible until last night.

  • Like 2

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z HRRR... This model has been east from the start.

image.thumb.png.e530d5a140dcac2b5d4bff427d4e09cb.png

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ended up with 0.98" of rain yesterday, another 0.23" so far today and coming down. Probably will end up with at least another half inch of rain before its all over. Interestingly, some models showing rain switching to snow right at the end, so maybe a chance to pick up a dusting tonight. Obviously if precip is any heavier or longer we could see a bit more but its just too warm to hope for much.

Friday morning has trended slightly more interesting as well with that trailing wave. I think there is potential to get a slushy few tenths of an inch of snow if it works out right even though nothing is probably more likely. Something to watch at least. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The NAMs have trended back nw a bit this morning.  Keep in mind that the snow totals should probably be cut down even more than Kuchera.  The surface will be very wet from the rain.

NAM

image.thumb.png.9383527b031bca05a7d4393c46188fcb.png

3kNAM

image.thumb.png.ec6afbcf70f331461659788296f5ce04.png

FV3

image.thumb.png.454d982f23ca6e0a9f45c8dc4da6a8d6.png

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z RDPS

All the CAMs/short-term models are very similar this morning.

image.thumb.png.d4a79b7ea17c109720a97f8a3ba9875b.png

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

Why are you saying models are caving to the NAM?  24 hours ago the NAM had a bunch of snow from central to northern Iowa.  The NAM was terrible until last night.

It seems what the NAM does- the others follow bot not right away, usually 2 runs later. This latest NAM now is doing NAM things-- .5" to 3.3" from one run to the next.

 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyone have any thoughts why models are REALLY struggling with this system? It can't be because it wasn't properly sampled, its been over land in the observation  network for a long time now. I wonder if the the TS element taking place is/may rob  moisture??? Who knows.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm liking the trend so far this morning.  The southeast fade seems to have abated and even come back nw and more solid with the defo zone precip.

12z GDPS

image.thumb.png.14c0b084a10157829e2192ab643eb86f.png

HRDPS

image.thumb.png.b38bebc6e7ba0eceb093a9e9f8894e69.png

  • Like 4

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, BMT said:

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_mw.png

2º colder throughout the column, this is probably what would actually fall and accumulate, considering 1+" precip.

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

UK with a very narrow band. And a sharp cutoff on QPF on the NW side. 

4D08FC4B-17C8-4AF1-990C-B1D80136D443.jpeg

It's a decent jump nw and snowier than the 00z run, but still on the se edge of the model range.  Hopefully, the Euro will be farther nw again.

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just my .02-- and I'am probably off kilter , but anyhew-- I think guidance is struggling because as of basically right now there is no storm- at least pressure wise. Lowest I can find is 1013 MB - 29.93. It's forecast to lose 20MB in the next 16 hours. That's impressive compared to RI tropical systems--

Previous nomenclature and definitions

The United States National Hurricane Center previously defined rapid deepening of a tropical cyclone, when the minimum central pressure decreased by 42 millibars (1.240 inHg) over a 24-hour period.[6] Currently it is defined as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (35 mph; 55 km/h) in a 24-hour period.[1] However, recent research suggests that mean sea level pressure is a better predictor of damage from hurricanes making landfall in the continental United States.[7]

  • Like 5

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro 

C77ABF0C-9AAC-4D1C-B2EA-B556E3A890D8.jpeg

NIce to see the Euro coming back nw this run.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 5.0"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This system  has seemingly  had me in its sights all week. Run after run.. At this point  im concerned this could be the biggest  event  in two winters. Once again a weekday early am event.  Looking at these models in fairly  decent  agreement  im quite surprised  theres no alerts for my county.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...