2/7 - 2/11 Texarkana Low

[Clinton]

18z Euro

[Hawkeye]

56 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro

Definitely southeast of the 12z run.

[Clinton]

32 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Definitely southeast of the 12z run.

Control and Ensemble Mean look good for your area.  Looking better for the KC guys to see some snow.

[Hawkeye]

Not only did the HRRR not correct nw at 00z, it shifted even farther east, and the defo zone precip is weak.  It would be a big bust for most of Iowa.  Given the UK was on the southeast end of the model range this morning, the 18z Euro shifted southeast, and the HRRR won't budge from a southeast track, I have to think the west models are wrong.  The NAM should shift east tonight.

[Hawkeye]

Yep, the 00z NAM is way east, and weaker and thinner with the snow as well.  The 3kNAM is a little better.

[Hawkeye]

The FV3 is still farther nw and stronger with the defo zone precip.

[mlgamer]

I laughed out loud when I saw the 00z 12K NAM moved the entire precip shield to the southeast of me. Over 1" of QPF on recent runs reduced down to less than 0.05". It's hard to take any of this seriously anymore. Local Mets must be wondering why they ever chose this for a career.

[Bellona]

Kinda figured it was too good to be true. Oh well...

[Hawkeye]

00z RDPS... southeast and still rather weak with snow.

[jaster220]

I'd go 2-4 for NE Iowa

[bud2380]

Gfs is going crazy over Iowa city and Cedar Rapids. Virtually All models have increased snow for Iowa city tonight. 

[Hawkeye]

43 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Gfs is going crazy over Iowa city and Cedar Rapids. Virtually All models have increased snow for Iowa city tonight. 

It's a tough forecast for the NWS and local mets.  I would continue to err on the low side.

[Hawkeye]

The 00z GDPS (Canadian) is southeast and weak with the defo zone precip.  It chops CR's precip in half and has almost no snow because it's so light.  Models are diverging as the system approaches.

[Hawkeye]

What the heck is going on with this thing?

00z UK... even farther southeast, precip barely makes it up to Cedar Rapids.  Almost the entire winter storm watch area doesn't even get a sprinkle or flurry.  This is ridiculous.

[Hawkeye]

Ugh.  Now the Euro is going east and crapping out, at least for Iowa.  Total precip and snowfall are way down this run.  At this point, I'm thinking 1" of snow in Cedar Rapids.

[Grizzcoat]

at least the Euro is not the NAM ---  Euro shows an interesting band from MO up to around Creston, one would think that's convective of some order.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS caving to the NAM... imagine that.

[Grizzcoat]

seems the old adage "don't wanna be in the bullseye 3-4 days out" is now more like 30-36 hours.  NWS grid has DSM area in 1-3". Going to be lucky for 1" and places W may not see any precip.

[Grizzcoat]

DMX with  a lengthy discussion. But really is summed up best by this line -

 

The reality is, we may not fully be sure until after the event shows its
hand tonight.

Donavan

[Grizzcoat]

You know it's a rough winter snowfall wise when KC disco mentions this-

Highest accumulations are expected across far
northern and NW MO where most will see about 0.5 inches or less;
however, some isolated 1 inch totals are possible.

Oh boy.

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

You know it's a rough winter snowfall wise when KC disco mentions this-

Highest accumulations are expected across far
northern and NW MO where most will see about 0.5 inches or less;
however, some isolated 1 inch totals are possible.

Oh boy.

Given the overnight timing and the heavy rates I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get a few inches of slop on the grassy surfaces.  Seems to be the best we can get this winter.

 

[Tom]

This storm pretty sums up this season....A season of Tracking "Wasted" winter storms for those from S WI down south...the only beauty about this system will be the convection and a textbook trowal and defozone setting up right overhead!  The radar will look pretty cool.  Oh, and let's not forget the wind aspect to it...I see High Wind watch's have been hoisted under the Belly of this little Beast.  Hang on to your hats @Hoosier!

0z Euro...peak wind gusts...loads of precip...

 

[Tom]

0z GEFS...

 

 

 

0z EPS...

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

Euro caving also to the mighty NAM.

[Hawkeye]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

Euro caving also to the mighty NAM.

 

 

Why are you saying models are caving to the NAM?  24 hours ago the NAM had a bunch of snow from central to northern Iowa.  The NAM was terrible until last night.

[Hawkeye]

12z HRRR... This model has been east from the start.

[Tom]

The GFS/GEFS have remained steady from the get go…even the CMC was east of the NAM and Euro out in IA just 24 hours ago.

[Black Hole]

Ended up with 0.98" of rain yesterday, another 0.23" so far today and coming down. Probably will end up with at least another half inch of rain before its all over. Interestingly, some models showing rain switching to snow right at the end, so maybe a chance to pick up a dusting tonight. Obviously if precip is any heavier or longer we could see a bit more but its just too warm to hope for much.

Friday morning has trended slightly more interesting as well with that trailing wave. I think there is potential to get a slushy few tenths of an inch of snow if it works out right even though nothing is probably more likely. Something to watch at least. 

[Hawkeye]

The NAMs have trended back nw a bit this morning.  Keep in mind that the snow totals should probably be cut down even more than Kuchera.  The surface will be very wet from the rain.

NAM

3kNAM

FV3

[BMT]

Still not really sure what to expect here.  just hoping to see it rip for a couple of hours.  

[james1976]

Winter storm watch 4-7" at the IA home. I'll be there tomorrow. I haven't really paid much attention to this. Reel another one in?

[Hawkeye]

12z RDPS

All the CAMs/short-term models are very similar this morning.

[Grizzcoat]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

Why are you saying models are caving to the NAM?  24 hours ago the NAM had a bunch of snow from central to northern Iowa.  The NAM was terrible until last night.

It seems what the NAM does- the others follow bot not right away, usually 2 runs later. This latest NAM now is doing NAM things-- .5" to 3.3" from one run to the next.

 

[Grizzcoat]

Anyone have any thoughts why models are REALLY struggling with this system? It can't be because it wasn't properly sampled, its been over land in the observation  network for a long time now. I wonder if the the TS element taking place is/may rob  moisture??? Who knows.

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS, back nw a bit from 06z

[bud2380]

Pretty fascinating system. I have a hard time believe the higher end totals given all the rain and borderline temps. But I hope at least it comes down hard for awhile during daylight 

[Grizzcoat]

CAMS have no clue either.

Old Rap (9Z)

New RAP 15Z

[Bellona]

I'm not sure what to think with this system. I didn't anticipate getting anything really. The recent NW tick might keep me in some good snows. I think anyone west of 35 and north of Hwy 3 can throw this one out. 

[Hawkeye]

I'm liking the trend so far this morning.  The southeast fade seems to have abated and even come back nw and more solid with the defo zone precip.

12z GDPS

HRDPS

[BMT]

[Hawkeye]

3 minutes ago, BMT said:

2º colder throughout the column, this is probably what would actually fall and accumulate, considering 1+" precip.

[bud2380]

UK with a very narrow band. And a sharp cutoff on QPF on the NW side. 

[Hawkeye]

3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

UK with a very narrow band. And a sharp cutoff on QPF on the NW side. 

It's a decent jump nw and snowier than the 00z run, but still on the se edge of the model range.  Hopefully, the Euro will be farther nw again.

[Grizzcoat]

Just my .02-- and I'am probably off kilter , but anyhew-- I think guidance is struggling because as of basically right now there is no storm- at least pressure wise. Lowest I can find is 1013 MB - 29.93. It's forecast to lose 20MB in the next 16 hours. That's impressive compared to RI tropical systems--

Previous nomenclature and definitions

The United States National Hurricane Center previously defined rapid deepening of a tropical cyclone, when the minimum central pressure decreased by 42 millibars (1.240 inHg) over a 24-hour period.^[6] Currently it is defined as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (35 mph; 55 km/h) in a 24-hour period.^[1] However, recent research suggests that mean sea level pressure is a better predictor of damage from hurricanes making landfall in the continental United States.^[7]

[Grizzcoat]

Seems COD satellite data is down. ADDS still on and this thing looks like a beast with Gulf moisture.

https://aviationweather.gov/satellite/plot?region=us&type=vis&date=

[bud2380]

Euro 

[Hawkeye]

4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro 

NIce to see the Euro coming back nw this run.

[BMT]

[OttumwaSnomow]

This system  has seemingly  had me in its sights all week. Run after run.. At this point  im concerned this could be the biggest  event  in two winters. Once again a weekday early am event.  Looking at these models in fairly  decent  agreement  im quite surprised  theres no alerts for my county.