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2/7 - 2/11 Texarkana Low


Tom

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6 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

You know it's a rough winter snowfall wise when KC disco mentions this-

Highest accumulations are expected across far
northern and NW MO where most will see about 0.5 inches or less;
however, some isolated 1 inch totals are possible.

Oh boy. ūüėČ

Given the overnight timing and the heavy rates I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get a few inches of slop on the grassy surfaces.  Seems to be the best we can get this winter.

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

 

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This storm pretty sums up this season....A season of Tracking "Wasted" winter storms for those from S WI down south...the only beauty about this system will be the convection and a textbook trowal and defozone setting up right overhead!  The radar will look pretty cool.  Oh, and let's not forget the wind aspect to it...I see High Wind watch's have been hoisted under the Belly of this little Beast.  Hang on to your hats @Hoosier!

0z Euro...peak wind gusts...loads of precip...

image.png

 

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1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

Euro caving also to the mighty NAM. Loading Maps...

 

 

Why are you saying models are caving to the NAM?  24 hours ago the NAM had a bunch of snow from central to northern Iowa.  The NAM was terrible until last night.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z HRRR... This model has been east from the start.

image.thumb.png.e530d5a140dcac2b5d4bff427d4e09cb.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Ended up with 0.98" of rain yesterday, another 0.23" so far today and coming down. Probably will end up with at least another half inch of rain before its all over. Interestingly, some models showing rain switching to snow right at the end, so maybe a chance to pick up a dusting tonight. Obviously if precip is any heavier or longer we could see a bit more but its just too warm to hope for much.

Friday morning has trended slightly more interesting as well with that trailing wave. I think there is potential to get a slushy few tenths of an inch of snow if it works out right even though nothing is probably more likely. Something to watch at least. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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The NAMs have trended back nw a bit this morning.  Keep in mind that the snow totals should probably be cut down even more than Kuchera.  The surface will be very wet from the rain.

NAM

image.thumb.png.9383527b031bca05a7d4393c46188fcb.png

3kNAM

image.thumb.png.ec6afbcf70f331461659788296f5ce04.png

FV3

image.thumb.png.454d982f23ca6e0a9f45c8dc4da6a8d6.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z RDPS

All the CAMs/short-term models are very similar this morning.

image.thumb.png.d4a79b7ea17c109720a97f8a3ba9875b.png

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

Why are you saying models are caving to the NAM?  24 hours ago the NAM had a bunch of snow from central to northern Iowa.  The NAM was terrible until last night.

It seems what the NAM does- the others follow bot not right away, usually 2 runs later. This latest NAM now is doing NAM things-- .5" to 3.3" from one run to the next.

 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Anyone have any thoughts why models are REALLY struggling with this system? It can't be because it wasn't properly sampled, its been over land in the observation  network for a long time now. I wonder if the the TS element taking place is/may rob  moisture??? Who knows.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I'm liking the trend so far this morning.  The southeast fade seems to have abated and even come back nw and more solid with the defo zone precip.

12z GDPS

image.thumb.png.14c0b084a10157829e2192ab643eb86f.png

HRDPS

image.thumb.png.b38bebc6e7ba0eceb093a9e9f8894e69.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, BMT said:

sn10_acc-mean-imp.us_mw.png

2¬ļ colder throughout the column, this is probably what would actually fall and accumulate, considering 1+" precip.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

UK with a very narrow band. And a sharp cutoff on QPF on the NW side. 

4D08FC4B-17C8-4AF1-990C-B1D80136D443.jpeg

It's a decent jump nw and snowier than the 00z run, but still on the se edge of the model range.  Hopefully, the Euro will be farther nw again.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just my .02-- and I'am probably off kilter , but anyhew-- I think guidance is struggling because as of basically right now there is no storm- at least pressure wise. Lowest I can find is 1013 MB - 29.93. It's forecast to lose 20MB in the next 16 hours. That's impressive compared to RI tropical systems--

Previous nomenclature and definitions

The United States National Hurricane Center previously defined rapid deepening of a tropical cyclone, when the minimum central pressure decreased by 42 millibars (1.240 inHg) over a 24-hour period.[6] Currently it is defined as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (35 mph; 55 km/h) in a 24-hour period.[1] However, recent research suggests that mean sea level pressure is a better predictor of damage from hurricanes making landfall in the continental United States.[7]

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Seems COD satellite data is down. ADDS still on and this thing looks like a beast with Gulf moisture.

https://aviationweather.gov/satellite/plot?region=us&type=vis&date=

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro 

C77ABF0C-9AAC-4D1C-B2EA-B556E3A890D8.jpeg

NIce to see the Euro coming back nw this run.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This system  has seemingly  had me in its sights all week. Run after run.. At this point  im concerned this could be the biggest  event  in two winters. Once again a weekday early am event.  Looking at these models in fairly  decent  agreement  im quite surprised  theres no alerts for my county.

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2 minutes ago, BMT said:

Looks like 18z NAM is taking a slight step back SE.  

Better consistency from some of these models sure would be nice.  nw, se, nw, se, stronger, weaker, stronger weaker.......

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Better consistency from some of these models sure would be nice.  nw, se, nw, se, stronger, weaker, stronger weaker.......

Would also be nice if the defo zone wasn't 2 counties wide.  Always gotta be threading the needle in every way.  

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How the heck does a model (3kNAM in this case) change this much in six hours, less than 24 hours before an event?

 

trend-nam4km-2023020818-f025.qpf_acc-imp.us_mw.gif

trend-nam4km-2023020818-f029.snku_acc-imp.us_mw.thumb.gif.58e5139ff26bd1db727204fd03ef8916.gif

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

How the heck does a model (3kNAM in this case) change this much in six hours, less than 24 hours before an event?

 

trend-nam4km-2023020818-f025.qpf_acc-imp.us_mw.gif

trend-nam4km-2023020818-f029.snku_acc-imp.us_mw.thumb.gif.58e5139ff26bd1db727204fd03ef8916.gif

I have to really think about the last time I saw something like this. It makes no sense. It's such a huge difference at so close to the event. Only thing I can think of is TS storms robbing energy - thoughts?

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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21 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Don’t complain too much my friend (things could be much worse like here in East Central NE)… you currently stand a good chance to get some decent precipitation. I would take 33 and rain all day long right now.

I'm not. Things could always be worse, but it is kind of a pet peeve. Though now the snow band is so narrow that you're riding the edge regardless.

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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DMX has dropped the watch and issued a winter weather advisory from east of Des Moines up to Waterloo.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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