bud2380 Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 18z HRRR 3 Quote Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 This is the latest into an event I can recall a winter storm watch. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 Looks like 18z NAM is taking a slight step back SE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, BMT said: Looks like 18z NAM is taking a slight step back SE. Better consistency from some of these models sure would be nice. nw, se, nw, se, stronger, weaker, stronger weaker....... 3 Quote season snowfall: 0.0" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Better consistency from some of these models sure would be nice. nw, se, nw, se, stronger, weaker, stronger weaker....... Would also be nice if the defo zone wasn't 2 counties wide. Always gotta be threading the needle in every way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 How the heck does a model (3kNAM in this case) change this much in six hours, less than 24 hours before an event? 1 2 Quote season snowfall: 0.0" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: How the heck does a model (3kNAM in this case) change this much in six hours, less than 24 hours before an event? I have to really think about the last time I saw something like this. It makes no sense. It's such a huge difference at so close to the event. Only thing I can think of is TS storms robbing energy - thoughts? Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 This event is either going to be a Huge bust or a big time event for those in E.IA. Here in C.IA - throwing in the towel. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 21 hours ago, Bryan1117 said: Don’t complain too much my friend (things could be much worse like here in East Central NE)… you currently stand a good chance to get some decent precipitation. I would take 33 and rain all day long right now. I'm not. Things could always be worse, but it is kind of a pet peeve. Though now the snow band is so narrow that you're riding the edge regardless. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 DMX has dropped the watch and issued a winter weather advisory from east of Des Moines up to Waterloo. Quote season snowfall: 0.0" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: DMX has dropped the watch and issued a winter weather advisory from east of Des Moines up to Waterloo. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 Please be another "Cascade Mountain" special. Winter Storm Watch just keeps going up in totals, now 5-8 there and a bunch of these short terms models have Portage, WI in the crosshairs (if I can read a map, haha). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 WSW issued * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch. Up to a tenth of an inch of sleet is also possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Iowa. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A band of heavier snowfall is possible but the location of the band is uncertain at this time. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 DVN not buying anything the models are selling. Issued a winter weather advisory for 1-3”. Point forecast says less than an inch. Despite every model showing 3-8” here. Quote Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 Congrats to those E with Warnings-- 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 GFS continues to hit Iowa city and CR hard. Either DVN is going to be way off or the models are gonna be way off. Can’t both be right here. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 Yup my IA home went from a watch to nothing lol. I'm fine with it. It's 46 and sunny up here in MN. Hard to not have spring vibes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 Love the DBQ 1-6"-- 2 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 EAX says not much to see here despite models showing several inches of snow. They do mention thundersnow for far northern MO, could be a good one for @OttumwaSnomowand east Iowa peeps. Detailed Discussion... Our H500 trough continues to dig through West Texas this afternoon. With broad ascent outstretched ahead from the Southern Plains, across the Ozarks, and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. In general, greatest moisture continues to reside through the 310 to 315K layers, with ample isentropic ascent present. This is important to note moving forward as the system evolves. With little impeding the northeast pivot and strengthening of the H500 trough overnight, the associated surface low will wrap up considerably as it traverses from southwest Missouri to northwest Missouri through daybreak. With forecast soundings suggesting nearly saturated columns and more than sufficient forcing for ascent present, expect periods of moderate rainfall to develop. This is especially true for central into eastern Missouri, where widespread totals will approach an inch to an inch and a half. The forecast becomes more interesting through the early morning as a decent TROWAL structure develops on the north and northwest side of the occluding low. A mix of rain and snow is likely as far south as the KC metro and the Missouri River through daybreak, with better chances for accumulating snow north of US 36 and especially across north central Missouri. Forecast soundings reveal stout ascent through the DGZ; which if this occurs, would increase ice crystal development and increase snow or rain efficiency. Through the lower levels, the further south, a decent warm nose remains in place, with surface temps just above freezing. Soundings from the NAM and NAMnest reveal some elevated instability well aloft; this too could increase precipitation efficiency and result in some thunder across northern Missouri. In the end, expect snow amounts around a dusting to a half inch in far northern Missouri to around an inch in far north central Missouri. One of these maps will be dead wrong. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted February 8 Report Share Posted February 8 I gotta say this one is puzzling.. DMX has no advisory at all and 1 to 2". Nws has advisory county to my north but "less than a inch". Twc app says 4 to 8" and seems in line with model data. Very interesting.. I expect 4 inches or slightly more. Men and equipment are ready. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 7 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said: I gotta say this one is puzzling.. DMX has no advisory at all and 1 to 2". Nws has advisory county to my north but "less than an inch". Twc app says 4 to 8" and seems in line with model data. Very interesting.. I expect 4 inches or slightly more. Men and equipment are ready yeah. Really weird. Nobody knows is the only consensus. Dvn doesn’t even have a snowfall map posted. Just a “total liquid” map. With warnings issued… 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 Lets see how the king does. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, Clinton said: Lets see how the king does. He had to bow to the almighty NAM with our storm. So it looks like he's following a bit closer this time. 1 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 00z HRRR.... back southeast again. This system is loaded with moisture and there's no big, cold high pressure pumping cold, dry air into it, but the models this afternoon and evening have trended to showing a very narrow defo zone. Waterloo may not get a drop of rain or flake of snow. One other thing I've noticed is models have gradually weakened the surface low over the last day. They had been suggesting the low would drop to the low 990s, but now it's only about 997 mb. I'm only expecting 1-3" in Cedar Rapids. 2 Quote season snowfall: 0.0" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 If the HRRR is right there will be a lot of surprised people in KC tomorrow morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 That scurrying noise you here in the distance is the folks at EAX checking out the 0z NAM. Gary Lezak @glezak Who will be surprised if it is all white in the morning? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 Seriously, wtf?!? The 00z NAM has completely cancelled the storm for Cedar Rapids. 1 Quote season snowfall: 0.0" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 Watch this be the one that hits… 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 00z FV3 is still considerably nw and more expansive than the HRRR and, especially, the NAM. I don't know how models can be so different as the event is about to begin. 1 Quote season snowfall: 0.0" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 00z FV3 is still considerably nw and more expansive than the HRRR and, especially, the NAM. I don't know how models can be so different as the event is about to begin. The RAP is similar to the NAM but better in Iowa for you and Bud. Even shows what might be a little heat island effect with the marginal temps in KC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: I don't know how models can be so different as the event is about to begin. It's been doing this all winter and every time it's a giant DUD. Weather Underground back tracking on snow totals yet again in the final few hours, for Portage. My guess for Portage is warning for 5-8 inches and they'll get 3 inches of wet snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 And there it is, weather advisory changed from 5-8 to 3-6. Somehow this snow is looking to thread a needle between where I live in SE Wisconsin getting rain and Cascade Mountain. God this winter has been so freaking bad for snowboarding let alone any other outdoor activities. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSM WeatherNut Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 Its trying to cool down aloft. Probably false hopes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 I'm now expecting an inch or less of slushy snow. 1 Quote season snowfall: 0.0" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 KDSM just received more QPF in one hour than both HRRR and RAP (05Z runs) show in 18 hrs. .1" of crunchy wintry mix- KDSM 090654Z 03004KT 6SM -RASN BR OVC048 01/00 A2982 RMK AO2 PLE01B10E17SNB01 SLP105 P0006 T00110000 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 KC getting a surprise. WWA. Good for you peeps down there. 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 Approaching 3” in spots around here already. 3 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 how bad is the GFS? 6Z run has 4" at KDSM. -- truth will be .1". What a joke of a model-- 6hrs out and it can't get it even remotely correct. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 44 minutes ago, winterfreak said: Approaching 3” in spots around here already. Congrats on the snow! EAX blew the forecast bad, watching the news this morning it looks like there are a lot of accidents happening. Nothing sticking here it looks like all the action is just to my north. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCSmokey Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 Approaching 4 inches of snow in the metro. Nice surprise with thundersnow to kick it off. 3 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 9 Author Report Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, KCSmokey said: Approaching 4 inches of snow in the metro. Nice surprise with thundersnow to kick it off. Congrats on the Snow! Gosh, this storm took the perfect track for you guys and if ONLY we had cold air to tap many of you would be digging out of a massive winter storm. Just a. beauty on radar...perfect timing to deepen/strengthen and go neg tilt... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 We've switched to snow in Cedar Rapids. Unfortunately, radar shows CR is just inside the precip shield. Go barely nw of us and the precip hits a wall of dry air. So, it's all about how long the good precip can hold over us. There may be a band of 3+" of snow just southeast of CR. I received about 0.40" of rain before the switch. Quote season snowfall: 0.0" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 Switched here 10 minutes ago and is really coming down. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 The latest HRRR suggests the heaviest snow band will set up from Iowa City to far nw Illinois. That looks correct based on radar. Quote season snowfall: 0.0" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 9 Author Report Share Posted February 9 Pouring heavy rain....feels like a late March Spring storm here... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 It's not heavy, but the snow is accumulating better than I expected it to at first. It is having no trouble at all whitening up all surfaces. 2 Quote season snowfall: 0.0" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 Woke up to about 1.5 inches of snow this morning with the temp of 34/35 degrees. If it was 2 degrees colder it would have been so pretty being covered on trees and everything but it has mostly melted off the trees. on my long drive to kc they definitely received more than us out of town! Everything is a winter winter wonderland but also a ton of slide offs so i see why they closed all the schools today. this storm was VERY dynamic but temps played havoc with all the forecasters!! Looks like the NAM did the best with this storm showing the heavy track right over the city 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 The snow briefly let up as a little mix of sleet moved in, but now big flakes are pouring down at the heaviest rate so far. 2 Quote season snowfall: 0.0" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 3 hours ago, Clinton said: Congrats on the snow! EAX blew the forecast bad, watching the news this morning it looks like there are a lot of accidents happening. Nothing sticking here it looks like all the action is just to my north. Driving has been a disaster to say the least lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted February 9 Report Share Posted February 9 About 1.5 here so far. Rain to snow at 6am. 20230209_081339.mp4 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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