2/7 - 2/11 Texarkana Low

[bud2380]

18z HRRR 

[bud2380]

This is the latest into an event I can recall a winter storm watch. 

[BMT]

Looks like 18z NAM is taking a slight step back SE.  

[Hawkeye]

2 minutes ago, BMT said:

Looks like 18z NAM is taking a slight step back SE.  

Better consistency from some of these models sure would be nice.  nw, se, nw, se, stronger, weaker, stronger weaker.......

[BMT]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Better consistency from some of these models sure would be nice.  nw, se, nw, se, stronger, weaker, stronger weaker.......

Would also be nice if the defo zone wasn't 2 counties wide.  Always gotta be threading the needle in every way.  

[Hawkeye]

How the heck does a model (3kNAM in this case) change this much in six hours, less than 24 hours before an event?

 

[Grizzcoat]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

How the heck does a model (3kNAM in this case) change this much in six hours, less than 24 hours before an event?

 

I have to really think about the last time I saw something like this. It makes no sense. It's such a huge difference at so close to the event. Only thing I can think of is TS storms robbing energy - thoughts?

[Grizzcoat]

This event is either going to be a Huge bust or a big time event for those in E.IA. Here in C.IA - throwing in the towel.

[hlcater]

21 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Don’t complain too much my friend (things could be much worse like here in East Central NE)… you currently stand a good chance to get some decent precipitation. I would take 33 and rain all day long right now.

I'm not. Things could always be worse, but it is kind of a pet peeve. Though now the snow band is so narrow that you're riding the edge regardless.

[Hawkeye]

DMX has dropped the watch and issued a winter weather advisory from east of Des Moines up to Waterloo.

[Grizzcoat]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

DMX has dropped the watch and issued a winter weather advisory from east of Des Moines up to Waterloo.

[gimmesnow]

Please be another "Cascade Mountain" special. Winter Storm Watch just keeps going up in totals, now 5-8 there and a bunch of these short terms models have Portage, WI in the crosshairs (if I can read a map, haha).

 

 

[hlcater]

WSW issued 

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations up to a
  tenth of an inch. Up to a tenth of an inch of sleet is also
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Iowa.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A band of heavier snowfall is possible but
  the location of the band is uncertain at this time.

 

[bud2380]

DVN not buying anything the models are selling. Issued a winter weather advisory for 1-3”. Point forecast says less than an inch. Despite every model showing 3-8” here. 

[Grizzcoat]

Congrats to those E with Warnings--

 

[bud2380]

GFS continues to hit Iowa city and CR hard. Either DVN is going to be way off or the models are gonna be way off. Can’t both be right here. 

[james1976]

Yup my IA home went from a watch to nothing lol. I'm fine with it. It's 46 and sunny up here in MN. Hard to not have spring vibes.

[Grizzcoat]

Love the DBQ 1-6"--

[Clinton]

EAX says not much to see here despite models showing several inches of snow.  They do mention thundersnow for far northern MO, could be a good one for @OttumwaSnomowand east Iowa peeps.

Detailed Discussion...

Our H500 trough continues to dig through West Texas this afternoon.
With broad ascent outstretched ahead from the Southern Plains,
across the Ozarks, and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. In general,
greatest moisture continues to reside through the 310 to 315K
layers, with ample isentropic ascent present. This is important to
note moving forward as the system evolves. With little impeding the
northeast pivot and strengthening of the H500 trough overnight, the
associated surface low will wrap up considerably as it traverses
from southwest Missouri to northwest Missouri through daybreak. With
forecast soundings suggesting nearly saturated columns and more than
sufficient forcing for ascent present, expect periods of moderate
rainfall to develop. This is especially true for central into
eastern Missouri, where widespread totals will approach an inch to
an inch and a half.

The forecast becomes more interesting through the early morning as a
decent TROWAL structure develops on the north and northwest side of
the occluding low. A mix of rain and snow is likely as far south as
the KC metro and the Missouri River through daybreak, with better
chances for accumulating snow north of US 36 and especially across
north central Missouri. Forecast soundings reveal stout ascent
through the DGZ; which if this occurs, would increase ice crystal
development and increase snow or rain efficiency. Through the lower
levels, the further south, a decent warm nose remains in place, with
surface temps just above freezing. Soundings from the NAM and
NAMnest reveal some elevated instability well aloft; this too could
increase precipitation efficiency and result in some thunder across
northern Missouri. In the end, expect snow amounts around a dusting
to a half inch in far northern Missouri to around an inch in far
north central Missouri.

One of these maps will be dead wrong.

[OttumwaSnomow]

I gotta say this one is puzzling.. DMX  has no advisory  at all and 1 to 2". Nws has advisory  county to my north  but "less than a inch". Twc app says 4 to 8" and seems in line with model data. Very interesting..  I expect  4 inches or slightly  more. Men and equipment  are ready.

[BMT]

7 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I gotta say this one is puzzling.. DMX  has no advisory  at all and 1 to 2". Nws has advisory  county to my north  but "less than an inch". Twc app says 4 to 8" and seems in line with model data. Very interesting..  I expect  4 inches or slightly  more. Men and equipment  are ready

yeah.  Really weird.  Nobody knows is the only consensus.  Dvn doesn’t even have a snowfall map posted.  Just a “total liquid” map.  With warnings issued…

[Clinton]

Lets see how the king does.

[jaster220]

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Lets see how the king does.

He had to bow to the almighty NAM with our storm. So it looks like he's following a bit closer this time. 

[Hawkeye]

00z HRRR.... back southeast again.  This system is loaded with moisture and there's no big, cold high pressure pumping cold, dry air into it, but the models this afternoon and evening have trended to showing a very narrow defo zone.  Waterloo may not get a drop of rain or flake of snow.

One other thing I've noticed is models have gradually weakened the surface low over the last day.  They had been suggesting the low would drop to the low 990s, but now it's only about 997 mb.

I'm only expecting 1-3" in Cedar Rapids.

 

[Clinton]

If the HRRR is right there will be a lot of surprised people in KC tomorrow morning.

[Clinton]

That scurrying noise you here in the distance is the folks at EAX checking out the 0z NAM.

 

Gary Lezak

 

@glezak

 

 

Who will be surprised if it is all white in the morning?

[Hawkeye]

Seriously, wtf?!?  The 00z NAM has completely cancelled the storm for Cedar Rapids.

[winterfreak]

Watch this be the one that hits…

[Hawkeye]

00z FV3 is still considerably nw and more expansive than the HRRR and, especially, the NAM.  I don't know how models can be so different as the event is about to begin.

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

00z FV3 is still considerably nw and more expansive than the HRRR and, especially, the NAM.  I don't know how models can be so different as the event is about to begin.

The RAP is similar to the NAM but better in Iowa for you and Bud.  Even shows what might be a little heat island effect with the marginal temps in KC.

[gimmesnow]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I don't know how models can be so different as the event is about to begin.

 

It's been doing this all winter and every time it's a giant DUD. Weather Underground back tracking on snow totals yet again in the final few hours, for Portage. My guess for Portage is warning for 5-8 inches and they'll get 3 inches of wet snow.

[gimmesnow]

And there it is, weather advisory changed from 5-8 to 3-6. Somehow this snow is looking to thread a needle between where I live in SE Wisconsin getting rain and Cascade Mountain. God this winter has been so freaking bad for snowboarding let alone any other outdoor activities.

[DSM WeatherNut]

 

Its trying to cool down aloft.  Probably false hopes.

[Hawkeye]

I'm now expecting an inch or less of slushy snow.  

[Grizzcoat]

KDSM just received more QPF in one hour than both HRRR and RAP (05Z runs)  show in 18 hrs. 

.1" of crunchy wintry mix-

 

KDSM 090654Z 03004KT 6SM -RASN BR OVC048 01/00 A2982 RMK AO2 PLE01B10E17SNB01 SLP105 P0006 T00110000

[Grizzcoat]

KC getting a surprise. WWA. Good for you peeps down there.

[winterfreak]

Approaching 3” in spots around here already.

[Grizzcoat]

how bad is the GFS? 6Z run has 4" at KDSM. -- truth will be .1". What a joke of a model-- 6hrs out and it can't get it even remotely correct.

 

[Clinton]

44 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Approaching 3” in spots around here already.

Congrats on the snow!  EAX blew the forecast bad, watching the news this morning it looks like there are a lot of accidents happening.  Nothing sticking here it looks like all the action is just to my north.

[KCSmokey]

Approaching 4 inches of snow in the metro. Nice surprise with thundersnow to kick it off. 

 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, KCSmokey said:

Approaching 4 inches of snow in the metro. Nice surprise with thundersnow to kick it off. 

 

Congrats on the Snow!  Gosh, this storm took the perfect track for you guys and if ONLY we had cold air to tap many of you would be digging out of a massive winter storm.  Just a. beauty on radar...perfect timing to deepen/strengthen and go neg tilt...

 

[Hawkeye]

We've switched to snow in Cedar Rapids.  Unfortunately, radar shows CR is just inside the precip shield.  Go barely nw of us and the precip hits a wall of dry air.  So, it's all about how long the good precip can hold over us.  There may be a band of 3+" of snow just southeast of CR.

I received about 0.40" of rain before the switch.

[BMT]

Switched here 10 minutes ago and is really coming down. 

[Hawkeye]

The latest HRRR suggests the heaviest snow band will set up from Iowa City to far nw Illinois. That looks correct based on radar.

[Tom]

Pouring heavy rain....feels like a late March Spring storm here...

[Hawkeye]

It's not heavy, but the snow is accumulating better than I expected it to at first.  It is having no trouble at all whitening up all surfaces.

[Jayhawker85]

Woke up to about 1.5 inches of snow this morning with the temp of 34/35 degrees. If it was 2 degrees colder it would have been so pretty being covered on trees and everything but it has mostly melted off the trees. 
 

on my long drive to kc they definitely received more than us out of town! Everything is a winter winter wonderland but also a ton of slide offs so i see why they closed all the schools today.

 

this storm was VERY dynamic but temps played havoc with all the forecasters!! Looks like the NAM did the best with this storm showing the heavy track right over the city 

[Hawkeye]

The snow briefly let up as a little mix of sleet moved in, but now big flakes are pouring down at the heaviest rate so far.

[winterfreak]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Congrats on the snow!  EAX blew the forecast bad, watching the news this morning it looks like there are a lot of accidents happening.  Nothing sticking here it looks like all the action is just to my north.

Driving has been a disaster to say the least lol.

[OttumwaSnomow]

About 1.5  here so far. Rain to snow at 6am.