Blizzard777 Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 78 in Issaquah on the lake... light wind too. Just perfect.And so nice to be able to see the other side of the lake unlike last time in the smoke.I’m glad the smoke is history. I feel clean again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 I’m glad the smoke is history. I feel clean againWas smoky here at times today. Visibility was okay but there was a strong smell of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 30 years ago today was hott. It cooled off considerably exactly five months later. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 Yeah that AR was ridiculous and IIRC the "firehose" was really narrow. I was on the northern periphery of it and Eugene was in the bullseye. There were like 7 fumbles in the 1st quarter.That game was frustrating to watch with all the fumbles but Oregon was too good they still kicked Cals a**. Then a litte over 2 months later they got pounded with an Arctic Blast and snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 00Z GFS still building in the ridge after the system on Friday and Saturday. 00Z GEM trending that way now as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 00Z GFS still building in the ridge after the system on Friday and Saturday. 00Z GEM trending that way now as well.GEM looks quite warm next week now. When did the operational GFS become such a trend setter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 GEM looks quite warm next week now. When did the operational GFS become such a trend setterThe GEM only runs when it’s warm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 The GEM only runs when it’s warm I guess that makes sense since PDX has been below normal on only 23 of the last 140 days... only 17% of the days since the middle of April. Probably best to just go with the warm model on any given day. Works out better. Odds are in your favor. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 I guess that makes sense since PDX has been below normal on only 23 of the last 140 days... only 17% of the days since the middle of April.No it doesn’t. That would mean it ran cool 17% of the time, assuming it was accurate (it usually isn’t). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 The second week of September looks downright hellish on the 00z GFS. Probably a resurgence in the fire season if things go that way. Expect it to verify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 The second week of September looks downright hellish on the 00z GFS. Probably a resurgence in the fire season if things go that way. Expect it to verify. Yeah... feels like its going to win this time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 No it doesn’t. That would mean it ran cool 17% of the time, assuming it was accurate (it usually isn’t). Maybe it was still the warmest model though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 I can feel it coming in the air tonight. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 Maybe it was still the warmest model though.It was way too cool most of the summer. Missed the majority the big heatwaves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 Looks like the rain mostly misses us on the GFS. Another bone dry month? I think January next year is either going to go down like 1953 or 1930. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 Looks like the rain mostly misses us on the GFS. Another bone dry month? I think January next year is either going to go down like 1953 or 1930. Could be. Throw in 2006 as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 Looks like the rain mostly misses us on the GFS. Another bone dry month? I think January next year is either going to go down like 1953 or 1930.1953 seems infinitely more likely than a 1930 redo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 1953 seems infinitely more likely than a 1930 redoShould I look either of these up or are they too depressing? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 Should I look either of these up or are they too depressing?1930 was definitely during a depression. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 Should I look either of these up or are they too depressing?‘30 was an ice box but dry up here. ‘53 was a wet hot mess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 No ensemble support for that 0z gfs operational Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 Craziness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 ECMWF looked like it might be backing off... but its actually more troughy by Sunday than previous runs. Total rain just through next Sunday... this is more than the 12Z run through that time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 Jesse had yet to post about Tim not posting about the Euro. It must be a _________ run. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 Jesse had yet to post about Tim not posting about the Euro. It must be a _________ run.Good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 Fully expected the Euro to cave to the operational GFS tonight. Maybe tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 Euro did back off on the depth of the troughing in the 7-10 day range. But that is still a lot different than having the trough offshore with a 590dm ridge over us next week like the GFS does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 Humid and warm with some rain in Split, Croatia. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 That seems sort of meaningless as well. This entire weekend and next week looked fairly troughy at one point. Any model showing less troughiness and rain has been the winner lately... no matter what the GFS ensembles and EPS have said. Has to change eventually... but won't believe until I see it.Change it had to come. knew it all along!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHhrZgojY1QWon't Get Fooled Again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherArchive Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 EPS and Euro also sticking to their guns, as well as the GFS ensembles. Although I can’t help but still remember when the operational GFS totally lead the way in killing that early August troughy period.GFS has gotten a new satellite in 2016 since then less drunk runs and NOAA had a super computer upgrade this year.. http://www.noaa.gov/noaa%E2%80%99s-premier-forecast-model-goes-four-dimensional obviously it has the correct information about the earth changes. The Euro better catch up as investors and companies pay for it.http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-kicks-off-2018-with-massive-supercomputer-upgrade A model is programmed by humans and isn't magic. there is too much reliance on models these days and this society bucks when things don't go their way. we need old skool science and local climatologists with no political spins as a comeback Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 Sun is already breaking through here this morning... going to be a really nice day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 06Z GFS took a big step towards the ECMWF. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 Humid and warm with some rain in Split, Croatia.. Your close to Medjugorje! My brother has done a few trips there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 12Z GFS basically took away any meaningful rain even for WA with the Friday night and Saturday system. Its pretty much washed out on arrival and the ridge is building in on Sunday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 But the 12Z GFS is very different for next week... more like the ECMWF. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 OT, but it wouldn’t shock me if Gordon makes landfall as a Category 2+ hurricane. Tiny circulations like this one can undergo rapid intensification more easily than larger ones. #ConservationOfAngularMomentum Plus conditions aloft are pretty ideal, and the Gulf has a history of being an RI hotspot. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 FWIW, the soil moisture content has actually improved in the PNW this year, compared to this time last year Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 It would be nice if these models could go one way or the other for once instead of being so wishy washy. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted September 3, 2018 Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 OT, but it wouldn’t shock me if Gordon makes landfall as a Category 2+ hurricane. Tiny circulations like this one can undergo rapid intensification more easily than larger ones. #ConservationOfAngularMomentumPlus conditions aloft are pretty ideal, and the Gulf has a history of being an RI hotspot.So Gorden needs to pull it’s little arms inward to begin a tighter vorticity 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 3, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 3, 2018 I feel like the Gorton's fisherman food company could sue for it being a bit too close to their name, though I suppose both fu(k things up for fish. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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