November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS does not show any western troughing through the end of the run.   Control run is the same.   That would take us into late November with no significant mountain snow.    <_>

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12Z EPS does not show any western troughing through the end of the run.   Control run is the same.   That would take us into late November with no significant mountain snow.    <_>

 

 

 

Good to see some snow up on the hill today.

 

http://timberlinelodge.com/snowcameras/lodge.jpg?nocache=1541448815

[Blizzard777]

A river of moisture. 

 

Will the snow stick on the Ocean?

[Jesse]

Good to see some snow up on the hill today.

 

http://timberlinelodge.com/snowcameras/lodge.jpg?nocache=1541448815

EPS tends to hug persistence.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EPS tends to hug persistence.

 

84084505-5A97-48EA-8C96-B204302B400C.jpeg

 

Glad you brought that up Jesse. I think if we all hugged more the world would be a warmer place.

[Blizzard777]

Breezy south wind day number two gusting to 15

55* and mostly cloudy ...is that not exciting !!!

[MossMan]

I’m hoping for a lot of 500ft snow levels since my new place sits at 520ft.

[TT-SEA]

EPS tends to hug persistence.

 

84084505-5A97-48EA-8C96-B204302B400C.jpeg

 

Has it not actually been persistently ridgy?   

 

The control run is often a good check on the EPS and its persistent bias.     When the control run is wildly different than the EPS might be wrong with persistence.    

[Blizzard777]

Not a bunch of precipitation down South but Portland has managed ban all moisture so far today

[MossMan]

Not a bunch of precipitation down South but Portland has managed ban all moisture so far today

They will probably get hammered with snow all winter while us northerners stay high and dry like what happened in 2016/17 was it?

[Phil]

Hang in there. After t-giving we should see more favourable pattern for wave 1 activity perhaps?

Yeah, that’s what I’ve been saying. But the question is how strong will this sucker get before then?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

They will probably get hammered with snow all winter while us northerners stay high and dry like what happened in 2016/17 was it?

Pretty much. Only spot in the valley which hasn't had a snowfall of 4+ inches is the Dallas-Corvallis stretch in the west valley. which got unlucky both that winter (with a bit of snow) and really unlucky last winter, these spots haven't seen a significant snowfall of that status since 2014. So the entire valley hasn't scored.

[Phil]

And 2016-2017 was a great winter (at least here). I find that often warm novembers spell great things for the winter. If you're really cool early in November you blow your load for later in the season when you can actually get great snow and cold.

There’s a peculiar correlation (around here) between warm Novembers and snowy winters in El Niño. Since 1950, every coherent niño year that featured a warm November here was followed by a snowier than average winter.

 

However, cold Novembers are unpredictable wild cards. They can go either way. Some of our biggest winters have followed cold Novembers, but so have most of our crappiest winters.

[Phil]

Could be. Only God and Phil know for sure.

Ha, if only.

 

This subdecadal period has been a weird aberration of sorts. The same pattern is just stuck on repeat, with only minor changes in structure.

[Phil]

Anyone notice how the SE ridge doesn't really teleconnect for us anymore? People used to talk about the mythical SE ridge all winter, now it has largely gone by the wayside.

That’s because the SE-ridge only exists as a response to the configuration of upstream and poleward waves. It’s not really a driver of anything, as it relates to weather in the PNW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty much. Only spot in the valley which hasn't had a snowfall of 4+ inches is the Dallas-Corvallis stretch in the west valley. which got unlucky both that winter (with a bit of snow) and really unlucky last winter, these spots haven't seen a significant snowfall of that status since 2014. So the entire valley hasn't scored.

 

Dallas had 4" on 1/11/17

 

https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00352112&year=2017&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

I think you are right about Corvallis though. They were just south and west of the 12/14/16 event, to far north on 1/4/18, and to far south on 1/11/18. I am surprised they only had 1.5" on 1/7/18. 

[Phil]

If you are trying to compete with the big guys for spam status you need to start including sprawling Baffin Island vortex maps and full size traffic cam screen shots.

My guess is you’ll move to Baffin Island something within the next decade.

[Front Ranger]

That’s because the SE-ridge only exists as a response to the configuration of upstream and poleward waves. It’s not really a driver of anything, as it relates to weather in the PNW.

 

I don't think he was inferring it was a driver, just a teleconnector. 

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

Has it not actually been persistently ridgy?

 

 

It has been overwhelmingly wet, mossy, drippy, misty and troughy this year. We’re due!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think he was inferring it was a driver, just a teleconnector. 

 

Correct. Usually when we had deep troughing there was a SE ridge. Now there is a SE ridge while a huge ridge is parked over us.

[Phil]

I just can’t figure Mother Nature out anymore. I thought November would be cold in the West, I thought the ONI would be sitting ~ 0.5C right now, and I thought we’d see a weaker Greenland vortex this month.

 

Nature has thrown out the script. She’s just doing her own thing now. I think I’m going to step back and simply observe for a little bit.

[Blizzard777]

They will probably get hammered with snow all winter while us northerners stay high and dry like what happened in 2016/17 was it?

You’ll do fine at 500 and TWENTY FEET or at least the odds are stacked in your favor. Agreed Portland will win as we get closer to peak winter weather season. Location location location and I’m definitely not in the right location

[Blizzard777]

I just can’t figure Mother Nature out anymore. I thought November would be cold in the West, I thought the ONI would be sitting ~ 0.5C right now, and I thought we’d see a weaker Greenland vortex this month.

Nature has thrown out the script. She’s just doing her own thing now. I think I’m going to step back and simply observe for a little bit.

Awesome words Phil ! Nature doesn’t follow any rule book except to take the least path of resistance that is everchanging 24/7

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX really over achieved last year on snow fall. 

[Tyler Mode]

Just had a heavy shower move over.  3.15"/hour precip rate.  Gutters overflowing.  And 53 degrees.  Would be nice to stay sub 60 today...

[Front Ranger]

There’s a peculiar correlation (around here) between warm Novembers and snowy winters in El Niño. Since 1950, every coherent niño year that featured a warm November here was followed by a snowier than average winter.

 

However, cold Novembers are unpredictable wild cards. They can go either way. Some of our biggest winters have followed cold Novembers, but so have most of our crappiest winters.

 

For the PNW, there doesn't appear to be much of any correlation between November temp during El Ninos and the following winter.

 

There does appear to be some correlation between Nov precip and the following winter, as very dry Novembers (fall in general) during El Ninos have almost always led to lousy winters, and most the decent ones had wet or at least near normal precip in November.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For the PNW, there doesn't appear to be much of any correlation between November temp during El Ninos and the following winter.

 

There does appear to be some correlation between Nov precip and the following winter, as very dry Novembers (fall in general) during El Ninos have almost always led to lousy winters, and most the decent ones had wet or at least near normal precip in November.

 

Unfortunately we are pretty much a lock for a dry November.

[Front Ranger]

Unfortunately we are pretty much a lock for a dry November.

 

Too soon to say. Although pretty much a lock that the first half will end up drier than normal for the vast majority of the region.

 

The tricky thing about this fall is it's been dry in the southern half of the PNW and near normal in the northern half.

[TT-SEA]

Unfortunately we are pretty much a lock for a dry November.

 

 

The northern portion of the western US has been very wet... except for the clearly-defined rain shadow areas (e.g. just east of the Olympics and Cascades).

 

[Front Ranger]

The northern portion of the western US has been very wet... except for the clearly-defined rain shadow areas (e.g. just east of the Olympics and Cascades).

 

 

Pretty clear that the vast majority of the West will be below normal in about a week, though.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty clear that the vast majority of the West will be below normal in about a week, though.

 

 

Yep... and pretty clear that the vast majority of the northern part of the West has been anomalously wet.  

[Jesse]

Yep... and pretty clear that the vast majority of the northern part of the West has been anomalously wet.

Would you prefer if the entire forum would just focus on your area and your area only?

[TT-SEA]

Would you prefer if the entire forum would just focus on your area and your area only?

 

Both realities exist.   That is a very large area that has been anomalously wet from WA to the Dakotas.    This is not about my backyard.    

 

Its about the persistent north-south gradient.

[Jesse]

Both realities exist. That is a very large area that has been anomalously wet from WA to the Dakotas. This is not about my backyard.

 

Its about the persistent north-south gradient.

It’s always about your backyard.

[TT-SEA]

It’s always about your backyard.

I must own most of the northern part of the western US then.

[Jesse]

I must own most of the northern part of the western US then.

Nah, that area just happens to be more representative of your backyard-centric narrative right now. If areas to the north and east of you had been drier this year and there was an area of above average rainfall throughout Oregon and the southern half of Wa, of which you were a part, you would be claiming our region.

[FroYoBro]

It is currently raining here.

 

Some people will be pleased with this.

 

Some people will be displeased with this.

 

I respect all opinions on this matter and do not wish any harm from this post. 

[TT-SEA]

Nah, that area just happens to be more representative of your backyard-centric narrative right now. If areas to the north and east of you had been drier this year and there was an area of above average rainfall throughout Oregon and the southern half of Wa, of which you were a part, you would be claiming our region.

 

 

Showing the big picture across the entire West is wrong?   Its the biggest map area allowed on that site.    You decide what it all means.   Looks like quite the north-south gradient again to me.

[Jesse]

There was a frame of the GFS the other day that showed CZ snow. I'd take two pages of discussion on that than the bullshit back and forth between Tim and Jesse.

 

One Like = Agree

Agreed!